welcome to watchmojo.com i’m your host
laila in our interview with the writers
of transport revolutions moving people
and freight without oil Anthony pearl
and Richard Gilbert tell us about the
relationship between transportation oil
and conflict it’s not going to be a
smooth curve in terms of escalating
prices even though prices have been
basically trending steadily upward over
the last five years now at some point
there could also be other political
crises and that involves military
conflict over the remaining oil
resources at an international scale and
at a local domestic scale that involves
local conflict in competition for access
to what might not be reliable supplies I
mean when people’s SUVs become empty and
they have to walk away from them or try
and push them along the side of the road
there’s going to be some potential for
violence around filling stations people
will try to push ahead in gas lines
potentially as happened in the 1970s the
difference today unfortunately in the
United States is there’s a lot more
weaponry out on the streets and that
would prompt an adjustment by government
away from just an open market I mean the
idea of rationing can’t be ruled out
under those kinds of circumstances once
you put in rationing it can have some
equity and give people basic aloft
menaul of the innovation and efficiency
that comes with a flexible pricing and
market-based system is put on hold and
it makes the adaptation to these
transport revolutions even harder if we
wait till we get to that crisis point we
think about the United States being very
dependent on Middle East oil and maybe
have an even invaded Iraq because of
that and suddenly being concerned about
Iran because of that with China is
actually more dependent on Middle East
oil than the United States quite a bit
more dependent in terms of getting
imports from that part of the world also
China which has historically had an
armed forces that is very much focused
on China and its borders is now very
rapidly developing armed forces that
have an international reach it is soon
moving to have a navy as big as the
United States Navy which is huge it is
training its troops to operate in other
parts of the world Africa and the Middle
East the possibility of
conflict over these resources that are
vital both to China enter the u.s. is
becoming increasingly high we’re not
near there yet but the possibility is
getting hired what we really need is
this to come quite a way up on the
international agenda so that there can
be some rational discussion about it
rather than it being the 800-pound
gorilla in the corner that nobody’s
talking about this matter of oil
depletion the climate change agenda has
taken over in Europe they’re just
beginning to say the peak oil agenda
should have equal time with the climate
change agenda worldwide that needs to be
done through we’ve put in some planning
tools in the book that we think would be
very valuable to redesign transportation
systems based around energy right now
the people who are being trained and
coming out and we’re already practicing
transport planning and policy analysis
the ones who advised the politicians and
gives them often we feel short-sighted
or incorrect advice don’t really have
the tools to understand the energy
implications of oil depletion and what
that means in terms of what has to
change in the transport system
laila in our interview with the writers
of transport revolutions moving people
and freight without oil Anthony pearl
and Richard Gilbert tell us about the
relationship between transportation oil
and conflict it’s not going to be a
smooth curve in terms of escalating
prices even though prices have been
basically trending steadily upward over
the last five years now at some point
there could also be other political
crises and that involves military
conflict over the remaining oil
resources at an international scale and
at a local domestic scale that involves
local conflict in competition for access
to what might not be reliable supplies I
mean when people’s SUVs become empty and
they have to walk away from them or try
and push them along the side of the road
there’s going to be some potential for
violence around filling stations people
will try to push ahead in gas lines
potentially as happened in the 1970s the
difference today unfortunately in the
United States is there’s a lot more
weaponry out on the streets and that
would prompt an adjustment by government
away from just an open market I mean the
idea of rationing can’t be ruled out
under those kinds of circumstances once
you put in rationing it can have some
equity and give people basic aloft
menaul of the innovation and efficiency
that comes with a flexible pricing and
market-based system is put on hold and
it makes the adaptation to these
transport revolutions even harder if we
wait till we get to that crisis point we
think about the United States being very
dependent on Middle East oil and maybe
have an even invaded Iraq because of
that and suddenly being concerned about
Iran because of that with China is
actually more dependent on Middle East
oil than the United States quite a bit
more dependent in terms of getting
imports from that part of the world also
China which has historically had an
armed forces that is very much focused
on China and its borders is now very
rapidly developing armed forces that
have an international reach it is soon
moving to have a navy as big as the
United States Navy which is huge it is
training its troops to operate in other
parts of the world Africa and the Middle
East the possibility of
conflict over these resources that are
vital both to China enter the u.s. is
becoming increasingly high we’re not
near there yet but the possibility is
getting hired what we really need is
this to come quite a way up on the
international agenda so that there can
be some rational discussion about it
rather than it being the 800-pound
gorilla in the corner that nobody’s
talking about this matter of oil
depletion the climate change agenda has
taken over in Europe they’re just
beginning to say the peak oil agenda
should have equal time with the climate
change agenda worldwide that needs to be
done through we’ve put in some planning
tools in the book that we think would be
very valuable to redesign transportation
systems based around energy right now
the people who are being trained and
coming out and we’re already practicing
transport planning and policy analysis
the ones who advised the politicians and
gives them often we feel short-sighted
or incorrect advice don’t really have
the tools to understand the energy
implications of oil depletion and what
that means in terms of what has to
change in the transport system
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