Translator: khalid kittani Auditor: Ayman Mahmoud
Numbers can be scary.
I bet if I asked you
How many he was scared, or did not like, or was bad
In the calculation and statistics at the school, I’ll get at least 50% of the hands raised?
maybe more.
But the figures have become more important than ever.
We all have heard the word “big data” or “data-aware” and the fact that,
We suffer from a lack of understanding of numbers or data collection.
But, what Almhkh?
What this means to us?
Well, it means that governments, business enterprises, advertisers,
The media and even some scientists
We will use this data to tilt your views
Error or right.
With the vast amount of information,
We are more prone to misunderstanding, or even annoying, misleading.
If what does this mean for non-lovers of statistics and account?
You will deceive you every day?
No.
We will learn how this type of account is not an account.
It is simply critical thinking.
It is the ability to detect lies, lies Albgdah, and statistics.
And I’ll see all of you today
How does this.
So let us take the first position:
(Or c Simpson), one of the most known criminals in American history.
Simpson was a famous football league
He was charged with the murder of ex-wife, Nicole Simpson,
And her lover, Ronald Goldman night.
During the trial, a lawyer (or c),
Not Alcardashiyan but Alan Dershowitz,
Legal mind in the famous American law,
He has conducted a statistical argument convincing.
He and knowing that (or c) the treatment of abused Nicole,
But this did not matter.
This has nothing to do with the case.
Because there are four million women are mistreated in the United States
By their partners each year,
Within those four million, only 25,00 are murdered
By their partner, who assaulted them.
Therefore, the probability of killing (or c) his wife is one in 2,500.
You can not condemn the person POSSIBILITY one in 2,500.
But what should have been on the jury, and certainly, the elimination of attention to him
It is that Mr. Dershowitz did not have statistics relevant to the case.
It also calls the “deviation model used.”
Let me explain.
In the case of Mr. Dershowitz,
Here is a collection of live women who are abused by their partners.
What is the chance
That the partner Bzlmhn then murdered?
One in the 25,00.
But this is not our case at all.
Time trial, Nicole Simpson was dead.
He had been killed.
So it is part of a group of women who died
Who had been assaulted by their partner.
Among women who died who had been assaulted by their partner,
Nine of the ten had been killed by their partner aggressor
And not by other individuals in the community, some random cases.
Therefore, the chances of killing (or c) Nicole
90% were not the one in the 25,00.
This is a deviation model used:
Point to a group similar to the group that we’re talking about,
Do some statistics about them,
While in fact, that is not the group that we are talking about at all.
In our case the deviant model of women were alive who are abused
By their partner.
The real model, which was within Nicole,
Women were murdered who had been assaulted by their partner.
Now, we have defamation Bamahamyin, and we have lost confidence in the justice system,
Let us turn to the media.
I was sitting in a coffee shop, eat bacon sandwich.
The only Scottish dish that I loved him.
(Laughter)
While you immerse brown sauce appetite,
I read that my injury chances of bowel cancer
Increase by 20% if it ate sandwiches.
That was the headline in the newspaper.
Suddenly, there is a government person on television,
Talking about “the risks of truth bacon”, and our need to put taxes on it.
Each interface for news, as you can see, she was talking about the subject.
But let us take a closer look.
While Anoan mysterious,
The study said the fact that if you eat two slices of bacon every day,
The chances of getting bowel cancer will increase by 20%.
That’s really scary.
But the real question we must ask is that they increase by 20% of what?
Well, no matter how many meat sandwiches that Stoklha,
Five of the 100 suffer from bowel cancer during their lives.
If you eat all these 100 sandwich bacon every day,
Yes, it is true, the chance of getting bowel cancer increases by 20%.
But what is 20% of five people?
One person.
So if you eat all the 100 people sandwich every day,
Instead of five of them develop bowel cancer,
The six of them will catch.
It terrible, very terrible.
But not scary degree
Portrayed in the media
When you say that the chances of Asapetkm bowel cancer will increase by 20%
If you eat a sandwich bacon.
This is called “relative risk”
A chance of getting a particular disease is one in a billion,
The researcher tells you
If you increase your consumption of wine by the rate of two glasses a week,
Increase your chances of the disease by 100%.
But the rest is a chance of getting the disease in two billion.
I think I will continue to drink wine.
(Laughter)
Well, we can not trust the media, do not Nttia confidence in the justice system,
I will win the lottery and buy an island in Barbados,
And I leave from here.
You must win someone, right?
Right? You must have someone that island?
As you can see, Camelot, director of the national lottery, gets good money
Our belief that someone must win.
I’ll pay two-pound, I’ll have my chance, I want the island.
But what are my chances in the truth?
One in 45 million.
This does not mean anything to me. I do not have any idea about the meaning of this.
Do you know you?
I do not think so.
I mean, you may say that you have you become movie stars and Tvozon lotteries,
Or you may kill flesh-eating bacteria
Whichever is Sahih-
But this does not help me estimate the amount of 45 million.
But David Sbieglhtter came a great idea to represent that amount
Using bathtubs.
OK.
Imagine that you are inside the bathroom, really imagine it.
You Thdqon in the bathtub.
It is full, at the end, cedar Nashef.
Nothing fanciful, just Nashef rice _irunh from the store,
Full of.
And they are taking one grain of rice -ohml one hand Alan-
And Tdhnnounaa gold.
Then they are buried somewhere in the basin.
Tdvinunha deep, and Ngtonha rice.
And now you call people walk to Hmamkm,
They pay a two-pound compared to close their eyes, and enter their hands inside the tub,
In miraculously, one lucky dip, pulling a grain of rice that golden.
He worked really profitable.
If Oguenatm people to pay you two pounds to do so.
(Laughter)
If you really understand what the meaning of 45 million,
Do Snstmrbhra lottery?
I bought a lottery ticket because (million euro) were as much as 130 million this week,
But I was aware of what I do, right?
What these examples show him our attitudes
It is that you do not need to bring a calculator everywhere.
All you need is to possess critical thinking
In the back of your brain.
So if someone said something about a group,
Tell him, “any group talking exactly?”
Someone said your chances of having a disease more than 100% if you eat chocolates March plate,
“100% increase out of what?”
Or, chances are one in a million.
Very way to represent what is a million on the ground.
The discovery of lies, lies dirty, statistics do not account work.
It is simply critical thinking.
The fact that all of this means is that if something does not seem right
-no., statistics, study-
Perhaps it really is not true.
And now possessed the tools to ask the right Alswl.
So when someone says, “It is the truth. Data to prove it. Figures show this.”
It may be a lie.
thank you.
(clap)
Numbers can be scary.
I bet if I asked you
How many he was scared, or did not like, or was bad
In the calculation and statistics at the school, I’ll get at least 50% of the hands raised?
maybe more.
But the figures have become more important than ever.
We all have heard the word “big data” or “data-aware” and the fact that,
We suffer from a lack of understanding of numbers or data collection.
But, what Almhkh?
What this means to us?
Well, it means that governments, business enterprises, advertisers,
The media and even some scientists
We will use this data to tilt your views
Error or right.
With the vast amount of information,
We are more prone to misunderstanding, or even annoying, misleading.
If what does this mean for non-lovers of statistics and account?
You will deceive you every day?
No.
We will learn how this type of account is not an account.
It is simply critical thinking.
It is the ability to detect lies, lies Albgdah, and statistics.
And I’ll see all of you today
How does this.
So let us take the first position:
(Or c Simpson), one of the most known criminals in American history.
Simpson was a famous football league
He was charged with the murder of ex-wife, Nicole Simpson,
And her lover, Ronald Goldman night.
During the trial, a lawyer (or c),
Not Alcardashiyan but Alan Dershowitz,
Legal mind in the famous American law,
He has conducted a statistical argument convincing.
He and knowing that (or c) the treatment of abused Nicole,
But this did not matter.
This has nothing to do with the case.
Because there are four million women are mistreated in the United States
By their partners each year,
Within those four million, only 25,00 are murdered
By their partner, who assaulted them.
Therefore, the probability of killing (or c) his wife is one in 2,500.
You can not condemn the person POSSIBILITY one in 2,500.
But what should have been on the jury, and certainly, the elimination of attention to him
It is that Mr. Dershowitz did not have statistics relevant to the case.
It also calls the “deviation model used.”
Let me explain.
In the case of Mr. Dershowitz,
Here is a collection of live women who are abused by their partners.
What is the chance
That the partner Bzlmhn then murdered?
One in the 25,00.
But this is not our case at all.
Time trial, Nicole Simpson was dead.
He had been killed.
So it is part of a group of women who died
Who had been assaulted by their partner.
Among women who died who had been assaulted by their partner,
Nine of the ten had been killed by their partner aggressor
And not by other individuals in the community, some random cases.
Therefore, the chances of killing (or c) Nicole
90% were not the one in the 25,00.
This is a deviation model used:
Point to a group similar to the group that we’re talking about,
Do some statistics about them,
While in fact, that is not the group that we are talking about at all.
In our case the deviant model of women were alive who are abused
By their partner.
The real model, which was within Nicole,
Women were murdered who had been assaulted by their partner.
Now, we have defamation Bamahamyin, and we have lost confidence in the justice system,
Let us turn to the media.
I was sitting in a coffee shop, eat bacon sandwich.
The only Scottish dish that I loved him.
(Laughter)
While you immerse brown sauce appetite,
I read that my injury chances of bowel cancer
Increase by 20% if it ate sandwiches.
That was the headline in the newspaper.
Suddenly, there is a government person on television,
Talking about “the risks of truth bacon”, and our need to put taxes on it.
Each interface for news, as you can see, she was talking about the subject.
But let us take a closer look.
While Anoan mysterious,
The study said the fact that if you eat two slices of bacon every day,
The chances of getting bowel cancer will increase by 20%.
That’s really scary.
But the real question we must ask is that they increase by 20% of what?
Well, no matter how many meat sandwiches that Stoklha,
Five of the 100 suffer from bowel cancer during their lives.
If you eat all these 100 sandwich bacon every day,
Yes, it is true, the chance of getting bowel cancer increases by 20%.
But what is 20% of five people?
One person.
So if you eat all the 100 people sandwich every day,
Instead of five of them develop bowel cancer,
The six of them will catch.
It terrible, very terrible.
But not scary degree
Portrayed in the media
When you say that the chances of Asapetkm bowel cancer will increase by 20%
If you eat a sandwich bacon.
This is called “relative risk”
A chance of getting a particular disease is one in a billion,
The researcher tells you
If you increase your consumption of wine by the rate of two glasses a week,
Increase your chances of the disease by 100%.
But the rest is a chance of getting the disease in two billion.
I think I will continue to drink wine.
(Laughter)
Well, we can not trust the media, do not Nttia confidence in the justice system,
I will win the lottery and buy an island in Barbados,
And I leave from here.
You must win someone, right?
Right? You must have someone that island?
As you can see, Camelot, director of the national lottery, gets good money
Our belief that someone must win.
I’ll pay two-pound, I’ll have my chance, I want the island.
But what are my chances in the truth?
One in 45 million.
This does not mean anything to me. I do not have any idea about the meaning of this.
Do you know you?
I do not think so.
I mean, you may say that you have you become movie stars and Tvozon lotteries,
Or you may kill flesh-eating bacteria
Whichever is Sahih-
But this does not help me estimate the amount of 45 million.
But David Sbieglhtter came a great idea to represent that amount
Using bathtubs.
OK.
Imagine that you are inside the bathroom, really imagine it.
You Thdqon in the bathtub.
It is full, at the end, cedar Nashef.
Nothing fanciful, just Nashef rice _irunh from the store,
Full of.
And they are taking one grain of rice -ohml one hand Alan-
And Tdhnnounaa gold.
Then they are buried somewhere in the basin.
Tdvinunha deep, and Ngtonha rice.
And now you call people walk to Hmamkm,
They pay a two-pound compared to close their eyes, and enter their hands inside the tub,
In miraculously, one lucky dip, pulling a grain of rice that golden.
He worked really profitable.
If Oguenatm people to pay you two pounds to do so.
(Laughter)
If you really understand what the meaning of 45 million,
Do Snstmrbhra lottery?
I bought a lottery ticket because (million euro) were as much as 130 million this week,
But I was aware of what I do, right?
What these examples show him our attitudes
It is that you do not need to bring a calculator everywhere.
All you need is to possess critical thinking
In the back of your brain.
So if someone said something about a group,
Tell him, “any group talking exactly?”
Someone said your chances of having a disease more than 100% if you eat chocolates March plate,
“100% increase out of what?”
Or, chances are one in a million.
Very way to represent what is a million on the ground.
The discovery of lies, lies dirty, statistics do not account work.
It is simply critical thinking.
The fact that all of this means is that if something does not seem right
-no., statistics, study-
Perhaps it really is not true.
And now possessed the tools to ask the right Alswl.
So when someone says, “It is the truth. Data to prove it. Figures show this.”
It may be a lie.
thank you.
(clap)
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