[Music]
it’s Saturday night you’re getting ready
to go to dandy see a friend in the
morning when on radio news you hear the
deadly Glasgow love virus that decimates
50% of every community that affects has
hit South Glasgow you’re in the north
and you know that if you get out now
you could be in Dundee and less than two
errors it’s a no-brainer but then the
radio says glass regions must not travel
you think am I already infected
should I see should I get out you don’t
know but you have to decide this is what
Kathryn Bishop from the University of
Oxford calls a wicked problem something
with multiple components that you’ve
never encountered before so before they
go back to your own dilemma I want to
tell you a little bit about my own
experience over the years and my
attitude has changed to wicked problems
when I was a little girl I was extremely
strong minded and I once asked my mom a
question that I can in you the answer to
a thought I said mum what’s up here and
she said that somebody of your own age
and stage and I said you’re talking
rubbish appear is an old guy with glee
here who tells you what to do and I
argued so strongly that eventually she
just said believe what you like
well of course I was a little bit rate
that D appear back then wasn’t plenty of
guys like that in the House of Lords but
of course it was years before I was
embarrassed to discover just how right
she was and that my stubbornness had
prevented me learning anything new that
day
Mark Twain said ain’t what you don’t
know that’ll cause you problems it’s
what you know for sure that just ain’t
so I know a scientist and science is
full of situations we
you think you know for sure but actually
it just ain’t sue and I’m just a little
bit less stubborn these days I want to
give you an example imagine you had done
a Sophie of the people of Glasgow and
you discovered that people who sing
karaoke more than three times a week at
an increased risk of liver disease well
obviously that’s a remarkable finding so
you send your findings off to The Lancet
and then they come back just a few days
later with a letter from the editor
seeing mm-hmm you didn’t take into
account other portable explanations
anything ah of course they have a point
karaoke go is better with a drink and we
know that alcohol is one of the primary
causes of liver disease so in science we
would call alcohol a confounder and in
science that’s something that’s linked
to both of the things that you think are
linked in your study but there’s a more
ordinary dictionary definition of a
confounder and that’s something
unexpected that can prove you wrong so
the other thing that the editor The
Lancet says to you as if you really want
to demonstrate that reducing karaoke
singing in Glasgow can reduce liver
disease you need to do a randomized
controlled trial
so imagine we’ve done that this morning
I would imagine that when you came in
this morning many of you were sitting
with people that you know your
colleagues talking about things that you
have in common if we instead have done a
randomized control trial where I’ve been
standing at the door at toss of a coin I
allocate you randomly to that side or
that side of the auditorium your group
should be evenly splayed across either
side a bit like studying the lumps into
pancake batter and that’s the beauty of
a randomized control trial at balancers
all the confounders across both groups
so that actually you would have the same
number of heavy drinkers and you would
also have the same risk of liver disease
in both groups so if me then
reduced karaoke reduction therapy just
into this side of the auditorium
we could prove whether it worked or not
because everything else would be equal
I’ll leave you to think about that but
the only thing about a randomized
controlled trial is it’s only ethical to
do it if you really don’t know the
answer many children who have cancer
these days are entered into randomized
control trials imagine you were a parent
of a child with cancer sick child with
cancer
you’d be thinking I’m not going to enter
my child into a game of chance but other
parents on the ward might be seeing to
you we’ve seen children do well and nine
demise controlled trials it’s a wicked
problem you don’t know but you have to
decide so you talk to the doctors and
they tell you that in the trial they’re
competing the best known treatment of
cancer with something that might even be
a little bit better but they don’t know
so that your child has the same chance
of survival in either arm of the child
and you’re relying on the doctors not
knowing the answer so what does this got
to do with leadership well imagine if
your boss gave you a wicked problem my
junior boss said our company’s losing
money you’re almost certainly gonna have
to meet your team redundant unless they
can win a highly competitive contract
that’s a tough problem for you you don’t
know what to do but you have to decide
who to tell do you keep that to yourself
that night you can’t sleep you up at 4
o’clock in the morning you you’re
composing a difficult email to those
team members to warn them about the high
chance of redundancy and then you think
that if I do that how are they ever
going to win the bid and then self-doubt
starts to keeping you think surely if
I’m a leader I should be able to make
this decision but you sleep on it and
then in the morning two of your most
trusted team members are there in the
coffee room and you spill the beans you
see guys there’s a high chance that
you’re gonna be made redundant
and then they tell you of the confounder
that unexpected thing that proves you
wrong yes he they had had a phone call
giving them the heads up that your team
was actually the favorite to win the bed
the chance of redundance is actually
really very law thank goodness you
didn’t demotivate the team by pressing
send on that email so the team works
really well they are galvanized they
wind the beds you were a good leader he
shared the burden of the problem and
your team told you of confounders that
that you couldn’t have guessed that that
was time well spent but what if you
don’t have time well that’s a crisis
situation would you do with wicked
problems then well one of our greatest
leaders and decision makers was as
Chesley Sullenberger some of you mean
may know him as Sully who famously
landed his Airbus a320 on the surface of
the Hudson imagine the scene is a clear
afternoon as they take off from
LaGuardia Airport less than a minute
after takeoff they hit a flock of Canada
geese that take out both engines leaving
the plane without power
that a rapid interchange between Sully
and air traffic control to no avail they
can’t get back to any Airport throughout
this the advanced drone proximity
warning system is bleating terrain
terrain pull up pull up terrain terrain
pull up pull up 17 seconds before
hitting surface of the Hudson and no
doubt imagining almost certain death for
himself and the 155 Souls under his care
Chesley Sullenberger said to his first
officer got any ideas I would argue that
shading the burden of the problem helped
him make a perfect water landing that
day so back to your own dilemma there
you are in North Glasgow you know you’ve
got a 50/50
chance of dying if you stay but if
you’re already infected you should stay
and divert the nearest and dearest but
if you’re free of the virus get out but
what is a cardio state what if you could
infect your friends and Dundy well you
could infect the whole of Dundee you
don’t know but you have to decide well
remember that Mark Twain said ain’t what
you don’t know that will cause you
problems
I would argue pick up the phone speak to
your loved ones and see got any ideas
[Applause]
it’s Saturday night you’re getting ready
to go to dandy see a friend in the
morning when on radio news you hear the
deadly Glasgow love virus that decimates
50% of every community that affects has
hit South Glasgow you’re in the north
and you know that if you get out now
you could be in Dundee and less than two
errors it’s a no-brainer but then the
radio says glass regions must not travel
you think am I already infected
should I see should I get out you don’t
know but you have to decide this is what
Kathryn Bishop from the University of
Oxford calls a wicked problem something
with multiple components that you’ve
never encountered before so before they
go back to your own dilemma I want to
tell you a little bit about my own
experience over the years and my
attitude has changed to wicked problems
when I was a little girl I was extremely
strong minded and I once asked my mom a
question that I can in you the answer to
a thought I said mum what’s up here and
she said that somebody of your own age
and stage and I said you’re talking
rubbish appear is an old guy with glee
here who tells you what to do and I
argued so strongly that eventually she
just said believe what you like
well of course I was a little bit rate
that D appear back then wasn’t plenty of
guys like that in the House of Lords but
of course it was years before I was
embarrassed to discover just how right
she was and that my stubbornness had
prevented me learning anything new that
day
Mark Twain said ain’t what you don’t
know that’ll cause you problems it’s
what you know for sure that just ain’t
so I know a scientist and science is
full of situations we
you think you know for sure but actually
it just ain’t sue and I’m just a little
bit less stubborn these days I want to
give you an example imagine you had done
a Sophie of the people of Glasgow and
you discovered that people who sing
karaoke more than three times a week at
an increased risk of liver disease well
obviously that’s a remarkable finding so
you send your findings off to The Lancet
and then they come back just a few days
later with a letter from the editor
seeing mm-hmm you didn’t take into
account other portable explanations
anything ah of course they have a point
karaoke go is better with a drink and we
know that alcohol is one of the primary
causes of liver disease so in science we
would call alcohol a confounder and in
science that’s something that’s linked
to both of the things that you think are
linked in your study but there’s a more
ordinary dictionary definition of a
confounder and that’s something
unexpected that can prove you wrong so
the other thing that the editor The
Lancet says to you as if you really want
to demonstrate that reducing karaoke
singing in Glasgow can reduce liver
disease you need to do a randomized
controlled trial
so imagine we’ve done that this morning
I would imagine that when you came in
this morning many of you were sitting
with people that you know your
colleagues talking about things that you
have in common if we instead have done a
randomized control trial where I’ve been
standing at the door at toss of a coin I
allocate you randomly to that side or
that side of the auditorium your group
should be evenly splayed across either
side a bit like studying the lumps into
pancake batter and that’s the beauty of
a randomized control trial at balancers
all the confounders across both groups
so that actually you would have the same
number of heavy drinkers and you would
also have the same risk of liver disease
in both groups so if me then
reduced karaoke reduction therapy just
into this side of the auditorium
we could prove whether it worked or not
because everything else would be equal
I’ll leave you to think about that but
the only thing about a randomized
controlled trial is it’s only ethical to
do it if you really don’t know the
answer many children who have cancer
these days are entered into randomized
control trials imagine you were a parent
of a child with cancer sick child with
cancer
you’d be thinking I’m not going to enter
my child into a game of chance but other
parents on the ward might be seeing to
you we’ve seen children do well and nine
demise controlled trials it’s a wicked
problem you don’t know but you have to
decide so you talk to the doctors and
they tell you that in the trial they’re
competing the best known treatment of
cancer with something that might even be
a little bit better but they don’t know
so that your child has the same chance
of survival in either arm of the child
and you’re relying on the doctors not
knowing the answer so what does this got
to do with leadership well imagine if
your boss gave you a wicked problem my
junior boss said our company’s losing
money you’re almost certainly gonna have
to meet your team redundant unless they
can win a highly competitive contract
that’s a tough problem for you you don’t
know what to do but you have to decide
who to tell do you keep that to yourself
that night you can’t sleep you up at 4
o’clock in the morning you you’re
composing a difficult email to those
team members to warn them about the high
chance of redundancy and then you think
that if I do that how are they ever
going to win the bid and then self-doubt
starts to keeping you think surely if
I’m a leader I should be able to make
this decision but you sleep on it and
then in the morning two of your most
trusted team members are there in the
coffee room and you spill the beans you
see guys there’s a high chance that
you’re gonna be made redundant
and then they tell you of the confounder
that unexpected thing that proves you
wrong yes he they had had a phone call
giving them the heads up that your team
was actually the favorite to win the bed
the chance of redundance is actually
really very law thank goodness you
didn’t demotivate the team by pressing
send on that email so the team works
really well they are galvanized they
wind the beds you were a good leader he
shared the burden of the problem and
your team told you of confounders that
that you couldn’t have guessed that that
was time well spent but what if you
don’t have time well that’s a crisis
situation would you do with wicked
problems then well one of our greatest
leaders and decision makers was as
Chesley Sullenberger some of you mean
may know him as Sully who famously
landed his Airbus a320 on the surface of
the Hudson imagine the scene is a clear
afternoon as they take off from
LaGuardia Airport less than a minute
after takeoff they hit a flock of Canada
geese that take out both engines leaving
the plane without power
that a rapid interchange between Sully
and air traffic control to no avail they
can’t get back to any Airport throughout
this the advanced drone proximity
warning system is bleating terrain
terrain pull up pull up terrain terrain
pull up pull up 17 seconds before
hitting surface of the Hudson and no
doubt imagining almost certain death for
himself and the 155 Souls under his care
Chesley Sullenberger said to his first
officer got any ideas I would argue that
shading the burden of the problem helped
him make a perfect water landing that
day so back to your own dilemma there
you are in North Glasgow you know you’ve
got a 50/50
chance of dying if you stay but if
you’re already infected you should stay
and divert the nearest and dearest but
if you’re free of the virus get out but
what is a cardio state what if you could
infect your friends and Dundy well you
could infect the whole of Dundee you
don’t know but you have to decide well
remember that Mark Twain said ain’t what
you don’t know that will cause you
problems
I would argue pick up the phone speak to
your loved ones and see got any ideas
[Applause]
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