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100 a Day and Rising | Robert Wunderlich | TEDxTAMU


howdy yesterday nearly a hundred people
in the United States suffered a violent
death from a single cause that’s the
population of this room and it happened
the day before and the day before that
and we’ll lose another roomful tomorrow
most likely and they were doing
something that all of us did just to get
here
travel from one place to another in fact
over 37,000 people lost their lives in
traffic crashes last year pretty soon
you’d think somebody notice and we’d do
something about it and most disturbingly
after a period from about 2006 to 2011
where fatalities declined precipitously
they leveled out and then they went and
they’ve been going up for the last two
or three years so what’s going on with
that what caused them to fall and what’s
causing them to rise well research we
conducted that the Texas A&M
Transportation Institute in conjunction
with our colleagues at the University of
mid-michigan give some insight into
what’s going on first we need to
understand that the key components of
fatality are exposure and risk exposure
is how much we travel and risk is the
likelihood that there’s a fatality for
any one given unit of that travel just
like getting the flu is a fact is a
function of how many people you’re
exposed to that already have the flu and
how susceptible you are as an individual
for getting the flu and it varies from
person to person and that just like our
risk does vary from person to person in
traffic crashes and one thing’s for sure
one of those two things exposure or risk
has to go down in order for fatalities
to go down one or both and what we find
is if we look at what happened to
exposure and risk over some what else
happened in that period from 2005 to
2011 you may recall something called the
Great Recession it wasn’t good the
economy tanked people lost their jobs
they lost
their homes we didn’t buy as much we
didn’t make as much we didn’t deliver as
much so that all effects travel so will
that explain it did exposure go down
enough just because we didn’t travel as
much well this graphs gives us some
insight to that at the bottom you can
see the fatality is as they occurred
over that period of time and the top
line in orange is if we assume that
travel that risk was the same and only
travel varied according to the way that
was reported and measured how many
fatalities would have occurred and you
can see that the decline in travel does
not explain all of the reduction in
fatalities but if you assume that volume
was the same that we traveled the same
amount and risk varied as we measured it
during that period that’s the line in
turquoise so it was risk more than
travel that went down so what might
explain that well as researchers we look
at variation and look to see what we
might associate it with and we looked at
factors in four different categories we
looked at safety regulations the change
in laws over that period regarding drunk
driving helmet use and seatbelts we
looked at roadway and safety spending in
each of the states whether they were on
building new roadways or safety programs
and projects vehicle safety we looked at
how new the fleet is we looked at the
percentage of cars built after 1991 that
are in the fleet because since that time
there have been continual improvements
in the crash worthiness the structure of
the car airbags electronic stability
control and finally we looked at a whole
host of economic factors the amount of
economic activity per capita in each
state the median income how much alcohol
was consumed the unemployment rate and
gas prices and what did we find
well we found this changes in safety
regulations accounted for two to three
percent it’s not that laws don’t work
they do change behavior it’s just that
most states have pretty good laws and
they didn’t change much over this time
roadway and safety spending we
how to build safer roads and we do and
we know how to build projects that
improve safety at intersections and
along the roadway and we know how to
spend money on programs that help but we
just didn’t change much of the money
over that time it was about constant and
in terms of vehicle safety we get a
improvement and in fact since this 1960s
researchers indicated that this ten to
twelve percent decline in fatalities has
been a result of better and safer cars
and in terms of economic factors it’s 85
percent and one single factor accounts
for half over half sixty percent of the
decline in fatalities and what is that
the unemployment of 18 to 24 year olds
now from the looks of this audience we
have a number of people in the
demographic here and you probably know
someone else not yourself that’s a risky
driver someone that’s aggressive
particularly if they’re young man
and it’s not all your fault you don’t
have a lot of experience you may think
you have a lot of experience but you
don’t have a lot of experience and
there’s a thing up here called the
prefrontal cortex and it doesn’t fully
develop until you’re 25 and that’s what
governs judgment and judgments is pretty
important thing to have while you’re
driving or walking or biking or riding a
motorcycle well what would happen well
it turns out that the economic downturn
the Great Recession really affected 18
to 24 year olds more than anybody else
you didn’t have a job and when you don’t
have a job you don’t have a reason to
travel to work in the morning and come
back at home at night and you don’t have
any money to spend on much of anything
so there’s not really much reason to
travel and you wouldn’t have enough
money to get a car and and drive anyway
and buy gas so it turns out that this
has a really big effect so what does all
this mean for us well we know that if
the economy tanks and we take risky
drivers like that guy at the top out and
we don’t drink as much because
when during that time beer sales went
down we don’t die in drunk crashes as
much and a general economic activity
particularly rural travel went down in
its time and it’s more risky than urban
travel laws aren’t going to save us
because there’s really not that many
laws to put in effect anymore and
roadway projects well they do some good
but are we going to double the amount of
spending on it or we’re gonna spend a
whole lot more than when you are right
now and vehicles they have had that
steady decline but the problem is is
that there’s evidence that that benefit
has run its course we all drive pretty
modern cars that have good structural
components in airbags and electronic
stability control now there’s a lot of
promising technology like automatic
braking that has great promise 2% of the
fleet has that right now and those
changes are very evolutionary you have
to buy a new car that has that safety
feature and take advantage of it in
order for it to lower your risk and
those automatic cars that everybody’s
gonna drive according to some in the
next five years I don’t think they’re
not ready for primetime you’ve seen
what’s happened here lately in the news
we’ll be lucky if art your children are
driving those cars to any great extent
and again it’ll be evolutionary so
that’s pretty discouraging Robert well
we don’t want the economy to tank we’d
like for you folks to have jobs and I
know your parents would like for you to
have jobs when you get out of Texas A&M
and we certainly aren’t going to pass a
whole lot more rules and laws and and if
roadway projects aren’t going to save us
who can save us who can lower risk well
you can and I can and the person sitting
at next to you on either side can if we
will and how we do this where we can be
act as individuals we can act as parents
and we can act as members of society so
what’s the most important thing well
buckle up it’s every person it’s every
position in the car it’s everyday it’s
every trip over half of the people that
die in Texas in Krupps
trap
crashes are unbuckled yet our daytime
rate is about 90 percent and by clicking
that belt in you reduce your risk by 50
percent now how many of you are fans of
classic rock and roll okay there’s three
or four well we have failed as a
generation to pass on important things
and well how many of you know who the
doors are not well yeah I know you’re
looking for the door right now but okay
the doors okay some so the doors were a
classic rock band in the late 60s and it
turns out that pretty good advice about
driving that was song called Roadhouse
blues and in that song they had Mohnish
the listener to keep your eyes on the
road your hands upon the wheel and in
research we conducted at the Texas A&M
Transportation Institute we found that’s
true we took a bunch of drivers young
old male female and we put them in the
driving test we did a simulator and then
we took him out to the rellis campus and
had them driving real cars and while
they were doing that we annoyed them we
distracted them when you distracted them
by asking them math questions and
history questions while they’re driving
that’s pretty annoying right and then we
asked them we ratchet it up and we said
hey you know how you get along with your
mom and what do you think about your
ex-boyfriend or girlfriend
so we kind of got him a little emotional
and then finally we had him do something
that everybody seems to love to do what
did they do they got out that old cell
phone and we asked them to text so while
they were texting they were still having
to drive and guess how they did not well
it turns out that there’s a function in
our brain that as long as we have our
hands on the wheel and our eyes on the
road we have an automatic mechanism even
though we’re not thinking about it that
makes automatic corrections in our
steering and they’re symmetrical
corrections you tend to do pretty good
as long as you got well what happens
when you take your eyes off and put it
on that cell phone to do that very
essential message to that very essential
person that can’t wait well it turns out
you break that loop that loops not
working in
longer and you start to make erratic
corrections in your steering which means
you’re wandering over there all over the
road and what happens to your risk when
you wander all over the road it goes up
we can drive safer cars they’re not all
built the same you can look at the
National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration’s website or the
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
and get ratings on new cars and whatever
car we drive whether it’s old or new we
can maintain it so it doesn’t break down
on the side of the road and if it does
break down on the side of the road stay
in it
the car is actually designed to take an
impact from another vehicle you and I
are not and we lose a real alarming
number of people that are accidental
pedestrians and if you get stuck then
use this thing and call your roadside
assistance oh wait you don’t have
roadside assistance take a look at your
driver’s license after the session that
number one eight hundred five two five
five five five five is on there that’s
in micro print but since you’re young
people you can look you can see it a lot
better than I can and you got plenty of
time because you’re broke down if you’re
gonna be a pedestrian or bicyclist how
about being visibly smart now what does
that mean well number one if you think
just because that you can see that
vehicle with those headlights and those
headlights are touching you that that
driver can see you you’re wrong we need
to be having bright reflective clothing
or carrying lights orange is the new
black and we need to be where we are
expected so that’s being the smart part
because the more though if we’re where
we expected then the drivers more likely
to see us and that means crossing at the
corner or within the crosswalk or being
in the bicycle lane not going the wrong
way or crossing mid-block or doing those
things because we can’t expect the
motorists to expect things they don’t
expect and if you go to bike and walk
and ride there are a number of online
resources like white walk
like safe or share the road or look
learn live that tell you how things that
you can do to reduce your risk as a
bicyclist as a pedestrian as a
motorcyclist and it also has tips about
how we as drivers can drive around those
people more safely gear up if you’re on
two wheels you need to have a helmet on
but on a motorcycle it’s more than that
it’s a jacket it’s boots
it’s gloves it’s riding pants and that
may look like fun down there but that’s
those people are increasing the chance
of losing skin when they hit that slick
spot by 93% and that risk of injury or
fatality goes up by 30 or 40 percent now
you may think that the proper attire for
we’re riding a scooter is flip-flops
shorts a t-shirt and a ball cap let’s
change that it Texas A&M and start
riding a little bit more safely now you
may see I’ve seen this sign that they’re
at the entrance to Texas says welcome to
Texas drive friendly the Texas way I
think we might afford a few more and put
them around the rest of the state and
remind ourselves particularly college
station maybe so what does drive
friendly mean well maybe we should leave
a little bit earlier and not speak quite
as much speeding is represented in about
23% of fatalities and for every 10%
increase in speed you get a 45% increase
in the likelihood of death and it’s
particularly devastating to our
bicyclists and pedestrians they’re not
designed for a collision with a motor
vehicle and the speeds above 30 35 miles
an hour it’s particularly bad well how
many of your parents okay how many of
you know parents I mean if you have
parents I mean if you want to be parents
someday okay everybody
very good so as a parent what can we do
well number one we should model good
behavior we can buckle up we can keep
our eyes on the road and their hands on
the wheel and we can remember what we
in kindergarten about sharing sharing
the road sharing the road with other
people in cars and bikes and motorcycles
and walking we can buy a car seat buy a
good car seat there are online resources
from the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration that tell you how to rate
those and put them in write and use them
right you say hey look there’s an
instruction manual I got this
well observational studies indicate
about half of them are put in wrong when
you just look inside the car when you’re
doing a really complete examination up
to 93 percent are installed and used
incorrectly yet there are 1600 trained
child passenger safety technicians in
the state of Texas that are standing by
ready to help you put it in correctly
they’re on the Internet
we can buy a safer car for our teen now
what’s the car that the team the first
the initial team driver gets the oldest
one in the family right
who’s the riskiest group the young
driver what’s the least safe car the old
one maybe we ought to button give them
the new one now the parents you might
want to take a ball-peen hammer to it
before you give it to them because that
way you won’t be so upset the first
scratch they get but there is resources
to buy used cars and then the Insurance
Institute has those and the one thing
that we can do that’s better than almost
anything else is seat time with a
supervise with a supervisor that doesn’t
have to be a professional it can be you
or it can be your friend if you don’t
want to go through that stress but the
more time that teams an Amish drivers
spend with supervision that less risk
they have going forward
Australian research tells us that you
can have them to join a team driving
safety group the family’s acting for
community traffic safety or teens in the
driver’s seat national organization for
youth safety and students against
destructive decisions they’re all
working to help kids learn how to make
better decisions behind the wheel and in
life so what can we do as members of
society well maybe the first thing we
need to say is enough is enough
we don’t have to die this way our
friends don’t have to die this way a
hundred people don’t have to die this
way every day and what should we do
about it well maybe we should advocate
in our communities in our state for more
safety improvements let’s increase the
spending on new roads and safety
projects and let’s advocate for more
enforcement I know that’s pretty kind of
scary but listen if you’re doing all
those things that we talked about you
have to worry about this guy in the
sunglasses do you and don’t we want
everybody else to kind of lower our risk
too that’s the kind of guys that do that
get active join a coalition here in the
Brazos Valley the Injury Prevention
Coalition in Houston Safe Kids or the
injury prevention center of greater
Greater Dallas because in the end we’re
not going to wait for somebody else to
save us our future is in our hands thank you
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