in this building including me at some
point in time in our life has said
something to this effect if I would have
only known what Starbucks would be worth
today I would have bought that stock to
date open you can replace Starbucks with
Amazon Google General Motors Apple
Computer
IBM any of the billion-dollar businesses
that are out there but what if we could
predict the next billion-dollar business
my belief is that it’s not as hard as
people might think because in order to
predict what’s coming next all you have
to do is identify a trend a trend is
nothing more than a collection of data
from the past carried into the future if
you look at the trends of where we’ve
invested our money and how we’ve placed
value on business it becomes very clear
because we have always invested our
money into businesses that revolve
around the age that we exist in and I
don’t mean our chronological age I mean
our societal age our cultural age for
example in the mid to late 1800s during
the agricultural age if you were a small
business owner you would have been smart
to build shovels plowshares breed oxen
grow corn milk cows if you were in the
business of Ag you could predict that
you would have a pre successful business
in fact it was so popular that everybody
got into Ag in fact so many people got
into Ag that eventually by the early
1900’s the supply outweighed the demand
and the system imploded on itself and we
had a revolution called the Industrial
Revolution now in the industrial
revolution that led to a brand new age
called the manufacturing age now in the
manufacturing age we no longer valued
agriculture and the people that had a
grigora businesses they either did one
of two things they either pivoted or
perished and the ones that paradise were
the one sitting here over going don’t
forget the American farmer were the
lifeblood of America preserved the
American farmer and we were in the
manufacturing age and said yeah we
really don’t care
we no longer cared about having freshly
delivered milk to our doorstep we were
happy to go to a
tell manufacturing facility called a
grocery store and just pick up the milk
because it was cheaper and quicker and
easier but the agricultural businesses
that pivoted they treated their business
like a manufacturing facility they put
the cows and depends hook him up to
milking machines they traded in their
plows years for combines and they
treated their agriculture like a
manufacturing facility and they did
really well in the manufacturing age now
in the manufacturing age we valued that
so much so that that’s where we put all
of our money in fact cities were built
around manufacturing like Detroit and
Pittsburgh and so many people got into
manufacturing that eventually we had
more supply than we did demand by 1950
1955 the system could no longer sustain
itself and we had another revolution
called a computer revolution and in the
computer revolution we created a brand
new age and that age was the information
age born in 1969 now in the information
age we stopped valuing manufacturing and
there were two types of manufacturing
facilities those that pivoted and those
that perished the ones that perished
were the ones that said don’t forget
about made in the USA made in the USA
swears it employs where it’s important
don’t forget the lifeblood of America
it’s made in the USA and in the
Information Age we looked at our Excel
spreadsheets and we said well according
to the information no it’s not important
Taiwan
that’s the better place to build now the
the the manufacturing facilities that
started to manufacture based upon
information and data statistical process
control iso 9000 certifications they
looked at data and they managed through
data they they did well but if they
didn’t they perished knowing the
information age by the way we value
information more than we value
manufacturing way more than we value
agriculture in the information age if
you know something I don’t know I’ll pay
you for that businesses were built
around information remember encyclopedia
Britannia for the university students in
the room encyclopedia for candy is kind
of like Google but it’s on paper and
there’s only a software upgrade once a
year and that’s only if your parents are
rich otherwise you just keep using the
same operating system until you graduate
high school
but that company’s no longer around cuz
it was an information based business but
it did really well in the information
age because we base things and we paid
for things based upon information by the
way this became so popular that
everybody got into information based
businesses until around night until
around 2007 and we’d the supply
outweighed the demand and there was
another revolution called the
entrepreneurs revolution and that
created a brand new age and that’s the
one written right now and we’re seeing
it being born right before our very eyes
now it hasn’t been labeled yet it hasn’t
been titled but I’ll call it the
collaboration age mainly because I wrote
a book called collaboration economy so
if that title sticks I’m gonna seem very
prophetic so I’m hoping that that title
sticks but we call it sometimes the we
economy the sharing age I don’t care
what you call it but it’s the energy
that’s there that’s important because in
the collaboration age we no longer value
information and guess what we’re seeing
right now businesses either pivot or
perish depending upon how they interpret
it the best example is the taxicab
industry an information based
transportation system because the
cabbies understand the shortest route
from point A to point B they also know
the longest route from point A to point
B and so they can take it that way and
rip you off but either way the intended
outcome is the same they get you from
point A to point B because you don’t
know how to get there yourself and what
are they doing now because now we have
collaboration based transportation
systems like uber and lyft on all the
other ride-sharing programs and the cab
industry is going don’t forget about the
cab industry we’ve worked so hard to
memorize the streets and do all this
it’s very important you can’t use those
companies and in the collaborations age
we go we don’t care about you dude we
got a smartphone that smartphone took
your place because now in collaboration
based transportation we don’t evaluate
the success of that business based upon
getting from point A to point B we
valuated based upon the experience we
rate them on the cleanliness of the car
do they offer me a mint did they give me
a bottle of water was the conversation
good do they let me play my style of
music that’s a five-star I’ll give them
a tip I’ll give them a little diamond
right and all of a sudden we’re valuing
something differently than just the
actual transportation we’re valuing the
collaborative effort between passenger
and driver to get from point A to point
B
and as long as the cab industry
continues to complain they will perish
but when information based businesses
see this and they realize that no longer
their value is information but it’s
collaboration this is when they can
succeed because we are full on into the
collaboration age how long will that
last
almost every age lasts about 40 years
now the fun discussion is to talk about
what comes after the collaboration age
my belief by the way is that because of
Moore’s law and technology developing
are doubling every 18 years I don’t
think this age is gonna last as long I’m
gonna guess 30 to 35 years but somewhere
around 2040 2045 information or sorry
collaboration will no longer be valuable
there will be too many people involved
the system won’t sustain itself because
supply will be greater than demand it
will have a brand new revolution and
that will be the spiritual revolution
the spiritual revolution will create a
whole new age which I’ll call the
altruistic age and in the altruistic age
we’re going to value something
completely different than collaboration
what that is is enlightenment you see we
can predict this because every one of
these businesses answers a basic
question in the agricultural age the
question in a being asked was where
where do we plant our crops because if
you wanted to have a farm in Phoenix you
were a fool we were very careful to know
where that farm should be but in the
manufacturing age we didn’t care about
where you could have a manufacturing
plant in the Illinois or Phoenix and it
didn’t matter we cared about how how do
you build a faster better quicker
cheaper and any information age we no
longer cared about how we cared about
what what do you know that I don’t know
and in the collaboration age we’re
running out of questions the question
here is who who are you don’t we do
business now based upon who people are
as business owners we hire people based
upon who they are we get the resume we
throw it away we go to Facebook we
search their name we look at their
personality we look at their lifestyle
we want to find out who they are if you
don’t believe me look at the stats the
majority of people who have a college
degree have a job and something
completely unrelated to their college
degree because in the collaboration age
we no longer care about what you learned
in school we care about who you became
in the collaboration age it’s very
exciting we can never before in history
have we ever been able to connect with
like-minded people as efficiently and
easily as we can give you a great
example of this 50 years ago if you’re a
transgendered person you were just
confused you didn’t know why your
identity inside didn’t match the organs
on the outside and you had to struggle
and go through life and if you were
lucky enough not to kill yourself
you’d still be confused but nowadays a
transgender teen in Seattle can find a
transgender teen going through the same
problem in Tampa Florida and they can
connect and they can go through that
journey together and not feel isolated
not feel alone and that’s a good thing
but you see the brighter the light the
darker the shadow as has never been
easier for racists eyed racists or
terrorists to find terrorists xenophobes
to find xenophobes
and that dark side of the collaboration
is what will eventually collapse it and
we’ll have to ask better questions
because in the altruistic age we’re not
gonna ask who you are we’re gonna ask
why you are why do we have racism why do
we have terrorism why do we have sexism
why do we have any ism what happens
after the altruistic age twenty eighty
twenty eighty five twenty nine we’ve run
out of questions I’ve already answered
who we’re sorry we’re what we’re sorry
we’re how what who and why we’re out of
questions some people think when DIF
when carries through all of them when is
always now show me an entrepreneur that
asks when they should start a business
I’ll show you have failed it’s always
now so what are we gonna do after the
altruistic age we’re gonna loop back
around and we’re gonna ask ourselves
where again but instead of asking where
do we plant our crops we’re gonna ask
ourselves where do we colonize go to
Mars to get a Titan in to wormhole
technology that is where we’re going to
be
but right now in the collaboration age
we need to be aware we need to be wise
because here’s the stats eighty percent
of all jobs in America right now are in
the service driven business thirty
percent of all of those jobs can be
relegated into four main functions
seeing things reading things writing
things and integrating information all
four of which can be done by computers
just as good as a human and in some
cases better it’s never been more
important in the history of humanity to
focus on being a better person rather
than a smarter one thank you [Applause]