you
you [Music]
oh hi there it amazes me you’re all here
oh hi there it amazes me you’re all here tonight
tonight
tonight yeah you thought I was referring to
yeah you thought I was referring to
yeah you thought I was referring to traffic and parking I’m referring to the
traffic and parking I’m referring to the
traffic and parking I’m referring to the fact that you are the fortunate
fact that you are the fortunate
fact that you are the fortunate descendants of people who survived
descendants of people who survived
descendants of people who survived epidemics epidemics you probably know
epidemics epidemics you probably know
epidemics epidemics you probably know some SARS zika ebola you’ve read about
some SARS zika ebola you’ve read about
some SARS zika ebola you’ve read about them in the news you may have heard
them in the news you may have heard
them in the news you may have heard about some historical ones polio
about some historical ones polio
about some historical ones polio smallpox chicken pox influenza the first
smallpox chicken pox influenza the first
smallpox chicken pox influenza the first ones scientists are trying to develop
ones scientists are trying to develop
ones scientists are trying to develop cures for but with polio with chicken
cures for but with polio with chicken
cures for but with polio with chicken pox smallpox influenza we already have
pox smallpox influenza we already have
pox smallpox influenza we already have vaccines now what is an epidemic oh the
vaccines now what is an epidemic oh the
vaccines now what is an epidemic oh the paraphrase with the Center for Disease
paraphrase with the Center for Disease
paraphrase with the Center for Disease Control says an epidemic is a time when
Control says an epidemic is a time when
Control says an epidemic is a time when a lot of people get sick in a specific
a lot of people get sick in a specific
a lot of people get sick in a specific area that’s okay
area that’s okay
area that’s okay I’d add that a lot of people can also
I’d add that a lot of people can also
I’d add that a lot of people can also die and a lot of those people are
die and a lot of those people are
die and a lot of those people are children
children
children I study epidemics in a small town in
I study epidemics in a small town in
I study epidemics in a small town in Italy on the Adriatic coast
Italy on the Adriatic coast
Italy on the Adriatic coast picture-perfect
picture-perfect
picture-perfect I’ve been studying this place for a long
I’ve been studying this place for a long
I’ve been studying this place for a long time initially I started looking at data
time initially I started looking at data
time initially I started looking at data in the nineteenth century and I
in the nineteenth century and I
in the nineteenth century and I collected death records for everybody
collected death records for everybody
collected death records for everybody who died between 1810 and 1901 their
who died between 1810 and 1901 their
who died between 1810 and 1901 their name their sex their age and the day
name their sex their age and the day
name their sex their age and the day they died and I found there were trends
they died and I found there were trends
they died and I found there were trends and then late last year I got a call
and then late last year I got a call
and then late last year I got a call from a friend in Windsor and said
from a friend in Windsor and said
from a friend in Windsor and said have you heard about these new books the
have you heard about these new books the
have you heard about these new books the genetic history of pesky G oh my
850 pages
850 pages 19,000 people all arranged in
19,000 people all arranged in
19,000 people all arranged in alphabetical order
this was going to be a job I had my
this was going to be a job I had my copies are just dog-eared they’re
copies are just dog-eared they’re
copies are just dog-eared they’re delightful so I was able to construct
delightful so I was able to construct
delightful so I was able to construct the population and variations in
the population and variations in
the population and variations in population over time from the Year 1600
population over time from the Year 1600
population over time from the Year 1600 to the year 1900 we’re going to look at
to the year 1900 we’re going to look at
to the year 1900 we’re going to look at that
that
that I’ve smooth this out a lot for you I’ve
I’ve smooth this out a lot for you I’ve
I’ve smooth this out a lot for you I’ve eliminated most of the little blips just
eliminated most of the little blips just
eliminated most of the little blips just leaving the major catastrophes let’s
leaving the major catastrophes let’s
leaving the major catastrophes let’s start in the early 1600s many of you
start in the early 1600s many of you
start in the early 1600s many of you have heard of plague you may have heard
have heard of plague you may have heard
have heard of plague you may have heard of the Great Black Death in Europe and
of the Great Black Death in Europe and
of the Great Black Death in Europe and the 1340s well plague continues to wash
the 1340s well plague continues to wash
the 1340s well plague continues to wash across Europe for 300 years after that
across Europe for 300 years after that
across Europe for 300 years after that and plague comes to Italy twice around
and plague comes to Italy twice around
and plague comes to Italy twice around 1628 again around 1656 and the
1628 again around 1656 and the
1628 again around 1656 and the population in peski G drops dramatically
population in peski G drops dramatically
population in peski G drops dramatically population in 1600 was around 1100
population in 1600 was around 1100
population in 1600 was around 1100 people 380 nuclear families by the 1660s
people 380 nuclear families by the 1660s
people 380 nuclear families by the 1660s the population was down to around 500
the population was down to around 500
the population was down to around 500 people and 323 of those families had
people and 323 of those families had
people and 323 of those families had disappeared the number of births in the
disappeared the number of births in the
disappeared the number of births in the 1620s averaged about 44 per year by the
1620s averaged about 44 per year by the
1620s averaged about 44 per year by the 1660s it was less than 9 per year but
1660s it was less than 9 per year but
1660s it was less than 9 per year but populations are resilient new families
populations are resilient new families
populations are resilient new families move in old families start reproducing
move in old families start reproducing
move in old families start reproducing and by the 1770s the population is up to
and by the 1770s the population is up to
and by the 1770s the population is up to about 1300 people just in time
about 1300 people just in time
about 1300 people just in time I’m not sure if it was plagued again I’m
I’m not sure if it was plagued again I’m
I’m not sure if it was plagued again I’m not sure if it was smallpox I’m not sure
not sure if it was smallpox I’m not sure
not sure if it was smallpox I’m not sure exactly what it was there’s no there’s
exactly what it was there’s no there’s
exactly what it was there’s no there’s no references that that I was able to
no references that that I was able to
no references that that I was able to find that had anything about it but 10%
find that had anything about it but 10%
find that had anything about it but 10% of the population dies in six months
of the population dies in six months
of the population dies in six months that’s pretty dramatic well over the
that’s pretty dramatic well over the
that’s pretty dramatic well over the next 60 years more people move in
next 60 years more people move in
next 60 years more people move in population grows we get to 1836 and
population grows we get to 1836 and
population grows we get to 1836 and pandemic cholera arrives yay another
pandemic cholera arrives yay another
pandemic cholera arrives yay another drastic event pandemics are epidemics of
drastic event pandemics are epidemics of
drastic event pandemics are epidemics of a global proportion they’re all over the
a global proportion they’re all over the
a global proportion they’re all over the place
place
place 10% of the population dies most of them
10% of the population dies most of them
10% of the population dies most of them in three months absolutely incredible
in three months absolutely incredible
in three months absolutely incredible what you have to realize is that in the
what you have to realize is that in the
what you have to realize is that in the 1770s if you were born then you had less
1770s if you were born then you had less
1770s if you were born then you had less than a 40% chance of making it to be a
than a 40% chance of making it to be a
than a 40% chance of making it to be a year old looking back at 1777 life
year old looking back at 1777 life
year old looking back at 1777 life expectancy from birth was 17 and a half
expectancy from birth was 17 and a half
expectancy from birth was 17 and a half years far cry from the 80 years you’re
years far cry from the 80 years you’re
years far cry from the 80 years you’re all expecting by 1837 those numbers
all expecting by 1837 those numbers
all expecting by 1837 those numbers improve but not dramatically the
improve but not dramatically the
improve but not dramatically the population starts to grow again by 1846
population starts to grow again by 1846
population starts to grow again by 1846 were pushing 2,000 people actually I
were pushing 2,000 people actually I
were pushing 2,000 people actually I counted it was closer to 2002
the first major influenza pandemic hits
the first major influenza pandemic hits the flu well how bad can that be well in
the flu well how bad can that be well in
the flu well how bad can that be well in the first nine days of the epidemic 22
the first nine days of the epidemic 22
the first nine days of the epidemic 22 people died 20 of those people are under
people died 20 of those people are under
people died 20 of those people are under the age of 10 by two months well over a
the age of 10 by two months well over a
the age of 10 by two months well over a hundred people have died 90% of them
hundred people have died 90% of them
hundred people have died 90% of them children now let’s put this in a modern
children now let’s put this in a modern
children now let’s put this in a modern context in my hometown of n Arbor this
context in my hometown of n Arbor this
context in my hometown of n Arbor this would be the equivalent of having 12,000
would be the equivalent of having 12,000
would be the equivalent of having 12,000 people die in 60 days that’s 200 people
people die in 60 days that’s 200 people
people die in 60 days that’s 200 people a day you would all know people dying
a day you would all know people dying
a day you would all know people dying daily but the population rebounds again
daily but the population rebounds again
daily but the population rebounds again we get into the whole 19th century turns
we get into the whole 19th century turns
we get into the whole 19th century turns out there were 19 epidemic events those
out there were 19 epidemic events those
out there were 19 epidemic events those events saw typically 3 to 5 percent of
events saw typically 3 to 5 percent of
events saw typically 3 to 5 percent of the people dying plus the two big events
the people dying plus the two big events
the people dying plus the two big events and it doesn’t stop there
and it doesn’t stop there
and it doesn’t stop there 1901 an unknown epidemic comes through
1901 an unknown epidemic comes through
1901 an unknown epidemic comes through people start dying but finally I can
people start dying but finally I can
people start dying but finally I can show you the picture of a survivor the
show you the picture of a survivor the
show you the picture of a survivor the man on the left is Mikael a Pilate he
man on the left is Mikael a Pilate he
man on the left is Mikael a Pilate he was 8 years old when the epidemic hit
was 8 years old when the epidemic hit
was 8 years old when the epidemic hit his father died the last of his four
his father died the last of his four
his father died the last of his four brothers died none of whom reached the
brothers died none of whom reached the
brothers died none of whom reached the age of 2 he was very sick he survived
age of 2 he was very sick he survived
age of 2 he was very sick he survived and he emigrated to North America this
and he emigrated to North America this
and he emigrated to North America this is him in his 80s the little girl to the
is him in his 80s the little girl to the
is him in his 80s the little girl to the left is his great-great granddaughter
left is his great-great granddaughter
left is his great-great granddaughter coincidentally she’s my granddaughter
coincidentally she’s my granddaughter
coincidentally she’s my granddaughter and he’s my grandfather and she has
and he’s my grandfather and she has
and he’s my grandfather and she has advantages because she has access to
advantages because she has access to
advantages because she has access to clean water it’s less likely she’s going
clean water it’s less likely she’s going
clean water it’s less likely she’s going to come down
to come down
to come down with some cholera like disease she has
with some cholera like disease she has
with some cholera like disease she has access to reliable food sources people
access to reliable food sources people
access to reliable food sources people who are healthy and eat well are less
who are healthy and eat well are less
who are healthy and eat well are less likely to get sick she has access to
likely to get sick she has access to
likely to get sick she has access to modern medicine this includes
modern medicine this includes
modern medicine this includes antibiotics and she has access to
antibiotics and she has access to
antibiotics and she has access to vaccinations the fear that I have right
vaccinations the fear that I have right
vaccinations the fear that I have right now is that there’s a lot of
now is that there’s a lot of
now is that there’s a lot of misinformation going around about
misinformation going around about
misinformation going around about antibiotics and frankly there’s a lot of
antibiotics and frankly there’s a lot of
antibiotics and frankly there’s a lot of lies going around about vaccinations you
lies going around about vaccinations you
lies going around about vaccinations you have to remember in the 19th century 10%
have to remember in the 19th century 10%
have to remember in the 19th century 10% of every child born died within a year
of every child born died within a year
of every child born died within a year 43 percent did not reach their 16th
43 percent did not reach their 16th
43 percent did not reach their 16th birthday so the question you have to ask
birthday so the question you have to ask
birthday so the question you have to ask is do we want to return to a time of
is do we want to return to a time of
is do we want to return to a time of epidemics when children were dying or do
epidemics when children were dying or do
epidemics when children were dying or do we want to take advantage of modern
we want to take advantage of modern
we want to take advantage of modern medicine and watch our children and
medicine and watch our children and
medicine and watch our children and grandchildren thrive thank
Oh
Oh [Applause]
you [Music]
oh hi there it amazes me you’re all here
oh hi there it amazes me you’re all here tonight
tonight
tonight yeah you thought I was referring to
yeah you thought I was referring to
yeah you thought I was referring to traffic and parking I’m referring to the
traffic and parking I’m referring to the
traffic and parking I’m referring to the fact that you are the fortunate
fact that you are the fortunate
fact that you are the fortunate descendants of people who survived
descendants of people who survived
descendants of people who survived epidemics epidemics you probably know
epidemics epidemics you probably know
epidemics epidemics you probably know some SARS zika ebola you’ve read about
some SARS zika ebola you’ve read about
some SARS zika ebola you’ve read about them in the news you may have heard
them in the news you may have heard
them in the news you may have heard about some historical ones polio
about some historical ones polio
about some historical ones polio smallpox chicken pox influenza the first
smallpox chicken pox influenza the first
smallpox chicken pox influenza the first ones scientists are trying to develop
ones scientists are trying to develop
ones scientists are trying to develop cures for but with polio with chicken
cures for but with polio with chicken
cures for but with polio with chicken pox smallpox influenza we already have
pox smallpox influenza we already have
pox smallpox influenza we already have vaccines now what is an epidemic oh the
vaccines now what is an epidemic oh the
vaccines now what is an epidemic oh the paraphrase with the Center for Disease
paraphrase with the Center for Disease
paraphrase with the Center for Disease Control says an epidemic is a time when
Control says an epidemic is a time when
Control says an epidemic is a time when a lot of people get sick in a specific
a lot of people get sick in a specific
a lot of people get sick in a specific area that’s okay
area that’s okay
area that’s okay I’d add that a lot of people can also
I’d add that a lot of people can also
I’d add that a lot of people can also die and a lot of those people are
die and a lot of those people are
die and a lot of those people are children
children
children I study epidemics in a small town in
I study epidemics in a small town in
I study epidemics in a small town in Italy on the Adriatic coast
Italy on the Adriatic coast
Italy on the Adriatic coast picture-perfect
picture-perfect
picture-perfect I’ve been studying this place for a long
I’ve been studying this place for a long
I’ve been studying this place for a long time initially I started looking at data
time initially I started looking at data
time initially I started looking at data in the nineteenth century and I
in the nineteenth century and I
in the nineteenth century and I collected death records for everybody
collected death records for everybody
collected death records for everybody who died between 1810 and 1901 their
who died between 1810 and 1901 their
who died between 1810 and 1901 their name their sex their age and the day
name their sex their age and the day
name their sex their age and the day they died and I found there were trends
they died and I found there were trends
they died and I found there were trends and then late last year I got a call
and then late last year I got a call
and then late last year I got a call from a friend in Windsor and said
from a friend in Windsor and said
from a friend in Windsor and said have you heard about these new books the
have you heard about these new books the
have you heard about these new books the genetic history of pesky G oh my
850 pages
850 pages 19,000 people all arranged in
19,000 people all arranged in
19,000 people all arranged in alphabetical order
this was going to be a job I had my
this was going to be a job I had my copies are just dog-eared they’re
copies are just dog-eared they’re
copies are just dog-eared they’re delightful so I was able to construct
delightful so I was able to construct
delightful so I was able to construct the population and variations in
the population and variations in
the population and variations in population over time from the Year 1600
population over time from the Year 1600
population over time from the Year 1600 to the year 1900 we’re going to look at
to the year 1900 we’re going to look at
to the year 1900 we’re going to look at that
that
that I’ve smooth this out a lot for you I’ve
I’ve smooth this out a lot for you I’ve
I’ve smooth this out a lot for you I’ve eliminated most of the little blips just
eliminated most of the little blips just
eliminated most of the little blips just leaving the major catastrophes let’s
leaving the major catastrophes let’s
leaving the major catastrophes let’s start in the early 1600s many of you
start in the early 1600s many of you
start in the early 1600s many of you have heard of plague you may have heard
have heard of plague you may have heard
have heard of plague you may have heard of the Great Black Death in Europe and
of the Great Black Death in Europe and
of the Great Black Death in Europe and the 1340s well plague continues to wash
the 1340s well plague continues to wash
the 1340s well plague continues to wash across Europe for 300 years after that
across Europe for 300 years after that
across Europe for 300 years after that and plague comes to Italy twice around
and plague comes to Italy twice around
and plague comes to Italy twice around 1628 again around 1656 and the
1628 again around 1656 and the
1628 again around 1656 and the population in peski G drops dramatically
population in peski G drops dramatically
population in peski G drops dramatically population in 1600 was around 1100
population in 1600 was around 1100
population in 1600 was around 1100 people 380 nuclear families by the 1660s
people 380 nuclear families by the 1660s
people 380 nuclear families by the 1660s the population was down to around 500
the population was down to around 500
the population was down to around 500 people and 323 of those families had
people and 323 of those families had
people and 323 of those families had disappeared the number of births in the
disappeared the number of births in the
disappeared the number of births in the 1620s averaged about 44 per year by the
1620s averaged about 44 per year by the
1620s averaged about 44 per year by the 1660s it was less than 9 per year but
1660s it was less than 9 per year but
1660s it was less than 9 per year but populations are resilient new families
populations are resilient new families
populations are resilient new families move in old families start reproducing
move in old families start reproducing
move in old families start reproducing and by the 1770s the population is up to
and by the 1770s the population is up to
and by the 1770s the population is up to about 1300 people just in time
about 1300 people just in time
about 1300 people just in time I’m not sure if it was plagued again I’m
I’m not sure if it was plagued again I’m
I’m not sure if it was plagued again I’m not sure if it was smallpox I’m not sure
not sure if it was smallpox I’m not sure
not sure if it was smallpox I’m not sure exactly what it was there’s no there’s
exactly what it was there’s no there’s
exactly what it was there’s no there’s no references that that I was able to
no references that that I was able to
no references that that I was able to find that had anything about it but 10%
find that had anything about it but 10%
find that had anything about it but 10% of the population dies in six months
of the population dies in six months
of the population dies in six months that’s pretty dramatic well over the
that’s pretty dramatic well over the
that’s pretty dramatic well over the next 60 years more people move in
next 60 years more people move in
next 60 years more people move in population grows we get to 1836 and
population grows we get to 1836 and
population grows we get to 1836 and pandemic cholera arrives yay another
pandemic cholera arrives yay another
pandemic cholera arrives yay another drastic event pandemics are epidemics of
drastic event pandemics are epidemics of
drastic event pandemics are epidemics of a global proportion they’re all over the
a global proportion they’re all over the
a global proportion they’re all over the place
place
place 10% of the population dies most of them
10% of the population dies most of them
10% of the population dies most of them in three months absolutely incredible
in three months absolutely incredible
in three months absolutely incredible what you have to realize is that in the
what you have to realize is that in the
what you have to realize is that in the 1770s if you were born then you had less
1770s if you were born then you had less
1770s if you were born then you had less than a 40% chance of making it to be a
than a 40% chance of making it to be a
than a 40% chance of making it to be a year old looking back at 1777 life
year old looking back at 1777 life
year old looking back at 1777 life expectancy from birth was 17 and a half
expectancy from birth was 17 and a half
expectancy from birth was 17 and a half years far cry from the 80 years you’re
years far cry from the 80 years you’re
years far cry from the 80 years you’re all expecting by 1837 those numbers
all expecting by 1837 those numbers
all expecting by 1837 those numbers improve but not dramatically the
improve but not dramatically the
improve but not dramatically the population starts to grow again by 1846
population starts to grow again by 1846
population starts to grow again by 1846 were pushing 2,000 people actually I
were pushing 2,000 people actually I
were pushing 2,000 people actually I counted it was closer to 2002
the first major influenza pandemic hits
the first major influenza pandemic hits the flu well how bad can that be well in
the flu well how bad can that be well in
the flu well how bad can that be well in the first nine days of the epidemic 22
the first nine days of the epidemic 22
the first nine days of the epidemic 22 people died 20 of those people are under
people died 20 of those people are under
people died 20 of those people are under the age of 10 by two months well over a
the age of 10 by two months well over a
the age of 10 by two months well over a hundred people have died 90% of them
hundred people have died 90% of them
hundred people have died 90% of them children now let’s put this in a modern
children now let’s put this in a modern
children now let’s put this in a modern context in my hometown of n Arbor this
context in my hometown of n Arbor this
context in my hometown of n Arbor this would be the equivalent of having 12,000
would be the equivalent of having 12,000
would be the equivalent of having 12,000 people die in 60 days that’s 200 people
people die in 60 days that’s 200 people
people die in 60 days that’s 200 people a day you would all know people dying
a day you would all know people dying
a day you would all know people dying daily but the population rebounds again
daily but the population rebounds again
daily but the population rebounds again we get into the whole 19th century turns
we get into the whole 19th century turns
we get into the whole 19th century turns out there were 19 epidemic events those
out there were 19 epidemic events those
out there were 19 epidemic events those events saw typically 3 to 5 percent of
events saw typically 3 to 5 percent of
events saw typically 3 to 5 percent of the people dying plus the two big events
the people dying plus the two big events
the people dying plus the two big events and it doesn’t stop there
and it doesn’t stop there
and it doesn’t stop there 1901 an unknown epidemic comes through
1901 an unknown epidemic comes through
1901 an unknown epidemic comes through people start dying but finally I can
people start dying but finally I can
people start dying but finally I can show you the picture of a survivor the
show you the picture of a survivor the
show you the picture of a survivor the man on the left is Mikael a Pilate he
man on the left is Mikael a Pilate he
man on the left is Mikael a Pilate he was 8 years old when the epidemic hit
was 8 years old when the epidemic hit
was 8 years old when the epidemic hit his father died the last of his four
his father died the last of his four
his father died the last of his four brothers died none of whom reached the
brothers died none of whom reached the
brothers died none of whom reached the age of 2 he was very sick he survived
age of 2 he was very sick he survived
age of 2 he was very sick he survived and he emigrated to North America this
and he emigrated to North America this
and he emigrated to North America this is him in his 80s the little girl to the
is him in his 80s the little girl to the
is him in his 80s the little girl to the left is his great-great granddaughter
left is his great-great granddaughter
left is his great-great granddaughter coincidentally she’s my granddaughter
coincidentally she’s my granddaughter
coincidentally she’s my granddaughter and he’s my grandfather and she has
and he’s my grandfather and she has
and he’s my grandfather and she has advantages because she has access to
advantages because she has access to
advantages because she has access to clean water it’s less likely she’s going
clean water it’s less likely she’s going
clean water it’s less likely she’s going to come down
to come down
to come down with some cholera like disease she has
with some cholera like disease she has
with some cholera like disease she has access to reliable food sources people
access to reliable food sources people
access to reliable food sources people who are healthy and eat well are less
who are healthy and eat well are less
who are healthy and eat well are less likely to get sick she has access to
likely to get sick she has access to
likely to get sick she has access to modern medicine this includes
modern medicine this includes
modern medicine this includes antibiotics and she has access to
antibiotics and she has access to
antibiotics and she has access to vaccinations the fear that I have right
vaccinations the fear that I have right
vaccinations the fear that I have right now is that there’s a lot of
now is that there’s a lot of
now is that there’s a lot of misinformation going around about
misinformation going around about
misinformation going around about antibiotics and frankly there’s a lot of
antibiotics and frankly there’s a lot of
antibiotics and frankly there’s a lot of lies going around about vaccinations you
lies going around about vaccinations you
lies going around about vaccinations you have to remember in the 19th century 10%
have to remember in the 19th century 10%
have to remember in the 19th century 10% of every child born died within a year
of every child born died within a year
of every child born died within a year 43 percent did not reach their 16th
43 percent did not reach their 16th
43 percent did not reach their 16th birthday so the question you have to ask
birthday so the question you have to ask
birthday so the question you have to ask is do we want to return to a time of
is do we want to return to a time of
is do we want to return to a time of epidemics when children were dying or do
epidemics when children were dying or do
epidemics when children were dying or do we want to take advantage of modern
we want to take advantage of modern
we want to take advantage of modern medicine and watch our children and
medicine and watch our children and
medicine and watch our children and grandchildren thrive thank
Oh
Oh [Applause]
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