you
you [Music]
good afternoon so back in the early
good afternoon so back in the early 2000s us-led coalition forces invaded
2000s us-led coalition forces invaded
2000s us-led coalition forces invaded Afghanistan and Iraq more than fifteen
Afghanistan and Iraq more than fifteen
Afghanistan and Iraq more than fifteen years later now both conflicts are
years later now both conflicts are
years later now both conflicts are ongoing and have together claimed the
ongoing and have together claimed the
ongoing and have together claimed the lives of over 200,000 civilians and over
lives of over 200,000 civilians and over
lives of over 200,000 civilians and over 8,000 foreign troops Stanley McChrystal
8,000 foreign troops Stanley McChrystal
8,000 foreign troops Stanley McChrystal the former commander of NATO operations
the former commander of NATO operations
the former commander of NATO operations in Afghanistan recently suggests that
in Afghanistan recently suggests that
in Afghanistan recently suggests that the Taliban’s influence is stronger than
the Taliban’s influence is stronger than
the Taliban’s influence is stronger than it’s been at any point since the
it’s been at any point since the
it’s been at any point since the invasion and meanwhile suicide attacks
invasion and meanwhile suicide attacks
invasion and meanwhile suicide attacks continue to rock both nations capitals
continue to rock both nations capitals
continue to rock both nations capitals so aside from standard military
so aside from standard military
so aside from standard military operations a major cornerstone of both
operations a major cornerstone of both
operations a major cornerstone of both interventions has been reconstruction
interventions has been reconstruction
interventions has been reconstruction activity so that as development projects
activity so that as development projects
activity so that as development projects aiming to strengthen the state and grow
aiming to strengthen the state and grow
aiming to strengthen the state and grow the economy
the economy
the economy to this end US government alone has
to this end US government alone has
to this end US government alone has spent over 80 billion dollars in Iraq
spent over 80 billion dollars in Iraq
spent over 80 billion dollars in Iraq and over 120 billion dollars in
and over 120 billion dollars in
and over 120 billion dollars in Afghanistan now traditionally
Afghanistan now traditionally
Afghanistan now traditionally development aid is channelled into
development aid is channelled into
development aid is channelled into post-conflict settings through
post-conflict settings through
post-conflict settings through Development Bank’s international NGOs
Development Bank’s international NGOs
Development Bank’s international NGOs private companies and government
private companies and government
private companies and government agencies but in Iraq and Afghanistan
agencies but in Iraq and Afghanistan
agencies but in Iraq and Afghanistan foreign militaries have also entered
foreign militaries have also entered
foreign militaries have also entered that mix Provincial Reconstruction teams
that mix Provincial Reconstruction teams
that mix Provincial Reconstruction teams or PRTs our military base is set up to
or PRTs our military base is set up to
or PRTs our military base is set up to deliver aid in the sectors of health
deliver aid in the sectors of health
deliver aid in the sectors of health education agriculture transportation
education agriculture transportation
education agriculture transportation security you name it so in other words
security you name it so in other words
security you name it so in other words foreign militaries where they’re
foreign militaries where they’re
foreign militaries where they’re building hospitals clinics schools roads
building hospitals clinics schools roads
building hospitals clinics schools roads courthouses district offices and so on
courthouses district offices and so on
courthouses district offices and so on my research examines how military led
my research examines how military led
my research examines how military led reconstruction influences conflict the
reconstruction influences conflict the
reconstruction influences conflict the US Army counterinsurgency Field Manual
US Army counterinsurgency Field Manual
US Army counterinsurgency Field Manual stresses reconstruction is a key
stresses reconstruction is a key
stresses reconstruction is a key strategy in the fight against insurgents
strategy in the fight against insurgents
strategy in the fight against insurgents this approach is based on hearts and
this approach is based on hearts and
this approach is based on hearts and minds credo which suggests first that
minds credo which suggests first that
minds credo which suggests first that development projects provide jobs for
development projects provide jobs for
development projects provide jobs for people who would otherwise become
people who would otherwise become
people who would otherwise become insurgents and second that development
insurgents and second that development
insurgents and second that development projects are appreciated by the
projects are appreciated by the
projects are appreciated by the community
community
community but and they help build popular support
but and they help build popular support
but and they help build popular support now this theory has been widely adopted
now this theory has been widely adopted
now this theory has been widely adopted by government officials military
by government officials military
by government officials military personnel media analysts and many
personnel media analysts and many
personnel media analysts and many academics but there’s actually very
academics but there’s actually very
academics but there’s actually very little evidence to suggest that
little evidence to suggest that
little evidence to suggest that reconstruction and development aid is
reconstruction and development aid is
reconstruction and development aid is actually effective at bringing peace and
actually effective at bringing peace and
actually effective at bringing peace and stability
so with this puzzle in mind I traveled
so with this puzzle in mind I traveled to Afghanistan to ask experts on the
to Afghanistan to ask experts on the
to Afghanistan to ask experts on the ground what their views were regarding
ground what their views were regarding
ground what their views were regarding reconstruction now traveling to
reconstruction now traveling to
reconstruction now traveling to Afghanistan was not an easy decision to
Afghanistan was not an easy decision to
Afghanistan was not an easy decision to make so my strategy was essentially to
make so my strategy was essentially to
make so my strategy was essentially to tell everyone that I knew that I was
tell everyone that I knew that I was
tell everyone that I knew that I was going and that way it became too
going and that way it became too
going and that way it became too embarrassing to back out later on no
embarrassing to back out later on no
embarrassing to back out later on no matter how tempting that became my
matter how tempting that became my
matter how tempting that became my advisors negotiated special permission
advisors negotiated special permission
advisors negotiated special permission for my trip with the university
for my trip with the university
for my trip with the university administrators and when embassy staff
administrators and when embassy staff
administrators and when embassy staff finally stamped my passport and said
finally stamped my passport and said
finally stamped my passport and said congratulations you’re going to
congratulations you’re going to
congratulations you’re going to Afghanistan my heart froze with anxiety
Afghanistan my heart froze with anxiety
Afghanistan my heart froze with anxiety so as I boarded the plane took a bowl
so as I boarded the plane took a bowl
so as I boarded the plane took a bowl alongside businessmen in suits and
alongside businessmen in suits and
alongside businessmen in suits and security contractors covered in tattoos
security contractors covered in tattoos
security contractors covered in tattoos I felt vastly out of place but once I
I felt vastly out of place but once I
I felt vastly out of place but once I sat down and opened up the in-flight
sat down and opened up the in-flight
sat down and opened up the in-flight magazine I was greeted on page 1 with a
magazine I was greeted on page 1 with a
magazine I was greeted on page 1 with a plea by the US government to report
plea by the US government to report
plea by the US government to report fraud waste and abuse of reconstruction
fraud waste and abuse of reconstruction
fraud waste and abuse of reconstruction money so suddenly I felt emboldened to
money so suddenly I felt emboldened to
money so suddenly I felt emboldened to carry out this research agenda in the
carry out this research agenda in the
carry out this research agenda in the field my first day in Kabul an
field my first day in Kabul an
field my first day in Kabul an acquaintance of mine led me around the
acquaintance of mine led me around the
acquaintance of mine led me around the city center together we eat food in
city center together we eat food in
city center together we eat food in roadside eateries we wandered through
roadside eateries we wandered through
roadside eateries we wandered through busy market squares bartered with locals
busy market squares bartered with locals
busy market squares bartered with locals visited mosques and even attended a
visited mosques and even attended a
visited mosques and even attended a pottery workshop by the end of that
pottery workshop by the end of that
pottery workshop by the end of that first day I was thinking to myself this
first day I was thinking to myself this
first day I was thinking to myself this place isn’t so scary it’s quite
place isn’t so scary it’s quite
place isn’t so scary it’s quite delightful actually but later that
delightful actually but later that
delightful actually but later that evening I was instructed not to walk two
evening I was instructed not to walk two
evening I was instructed not to walk two blocks in the dark and was taken instead
blocks in the dark and was taken instead
blocks in the dark and was taken instead by taxi to my new home which was just
by taxi to my new home which was just
by taxi to my new home which was just 100 meters away from where we were my
100 meters away from where we were my
100 meters away from where we were my house was surrounded by three metre tall
house was surrounded by three metre tall
house was surrounded by three metre tall concrete blast wall topped with razor
concrete blast wall topped with razor
concrete blast wall topped with razor wire and guarded by an ex Special Forces
wire and guarded by an ex Special Forces
wire and guarded by an ex Special Forces operative who was regularly receiving
operative who was regularly receiving
operative who was regularly receiving death threats from the Taliban at the
death threats from the Taliban at the
death threats from the Taliban at the time my new flatmates were a group of
time my new flatmates were a group of
time my new flatmates were a group of war correspondents who briefed me on the
war correspondents who briefed me on the
war correspondents who briefed me on the contingency escape plan in the event of
contingency escape plan in the event of
contingency escape plan in the event of a Taliban raid suddenly Kabul seemed a
a Taliban raid suddenly Kabul seemed a
a Taliban raid suddenly Kabul seemed a bit less relaxing my first interview was
bit less relaxing my first interview was
bit less relaxing my first interview was the following day at the flower Street
the following day at the flower Street
the following day at the flower Street Cafe which sounds like a very relaxing
Cafe which sounds like a very relaxing
Cafe which sounds like a very relaxing inviting kind of place
inviting kind of place
inviting kind of place the cafe entrance however consisted of
the cafe entrance however consisted of
the cafe entrance however consisted of two guards armed with ak-47s and double
two guards armed with ak-47s and double
two guards armed with ak-47s and double airlock steel gates my next interview
airlock steel gates my next interview
airlock steel gates my next interview was at the compound of an Afghan
was at the compound of an Afghan
was at the compound of an Afghan construction company together with the
construction company together with the
construction company together with the CEO I had lunch on the rooftop
CEO I had lunch on the rooftop
CEO I had lunch on the rooftop while helicopters hovered overhead and
while helicopters hovered overhead and
while helicopters hovered overhead and he regaled me with first-hand tales of
he regaled me with first-hand tales of
he regaled me with first-hand tales of corruption in the north members of
corruption in the north members of
corruption in the north members of parliament
parliament
parliament forced him to buy a gravel supplies from
forced him to buy a gravel supplies from
forced him to buy a gravel supplies from their family firms in exchange for
their family firms in exchange for
their family firms in exchange for protection in the east heavily guarded
protection in the east heavily guarded
protection in the east heavily guarded road construction project drew Taliban
road construction project drew Taliban
road construction project drew Taliban fire every day until he eventually gave
fire every day until he eventually gave
fire every day until he eventually gave them a carpet for their mosque as a gift
them a carpet for their mosque as a gift
them a carpet for their mosque as a gift I spent my days taking street cars from
I spent my days taking street cars from
I spent my days taking street cars from compound to compound to conduct these
compound to compound to conduct these
compound to compound to conduct these interviews using hand-drawn maps for
interviews using hand-drawn maps for
interviews using hand-drawn maps for direction for the most part these
direction for the most part these
direction for the most part these military checkpoints and ak-47s were
military checkpoints and ak-47s were
military checkpoints and ak-47s were absolutely everywhere and so even my
absolutely everywhere and so even my
absolutely everywhere and so even my limited dari language skills proved
limited dari language skills proved
limited dari language skills proved enormously comforting and useful as I
enormously comforting and useful as I
enormously comforting and useful as I navigate it throughout the city but as
navigate it throughout the city but as
navigate it throughout the city but as weeks pass by I grew increasingly
weeks pass by I grew increasingly
weeks pass by I grew increasingly apprehensive in a misguided attempt to
apprehensive in a misguided attempt to
apprehensive in a misguided attempt to appear less Western I lost my hip-hop
appear less Western I lost my hip-hop
appear less Western I lost my hip-hop swagger and even grew a beard failing to
swagger and even grew a beard failing to
swagger and even grew a beard failing to recognize that nobody else in Kabul
recognize that nobody else in Kabul
recognize that nobody else in Kabul looks even remotely like that one taxi
looks even remotely like that one taxi
looks even remotely like that one taxi driver told me I look like a badass
driver told me I look like a badass
driver told me I look like a badass Chechen gangster and I took that to be a
Chechen gangster and I took that to be a
Chechen gangster and I took that to be a compliment actually it was much better
compliment actually it was much better
compliment actually it was much better than a vulnerable Canadian economist
than a vulnerable Canadian economist
than a vulnerable Canadian economist which was the reality of the situation
which was the reality of the situation
which was the reality of the situation on a more serious note I learned my
on a more serious note I learned my
on a more serious note I learned my favorite supermarket and shopping mall
favorite supermarket and shopping mall
favorite supermarket and shopping mall had both been bombed recently one day
had both been bombed recently one day
had both been bombed recently one day garbage can exploded in my neighborhood
garbage can exploded in my neighborhood
garbage can exploded in my neighborhood another day suicide car bomb detonated
another day suicide car bomb detonated
another day suicide car bomb detonated near my friend’s house and killed dozens
near my friend’s house and killed dozens
near my friend’s house and killed dozens of people
of people
of people later I would learn that one of my
later I would learn that one of my
later I would learn that one of my interview locations was raided by the
interview locations was raided by the
interview locations was raided by the Taliban and they killed everybody inside
Taliban and they killed everybody inside
Taliban and they killed everybody inside like 21 people as I wait
like 21 people as I wait
like 21 people as I wait for military clearance when they had a
for military clearance when they had a
for military clearance when they had a checkpoint I was speaking with an Afghan
checkpoint I was speaking with an Afghan
checkpoint I was speaking with an Afghan soldier and he said to me are you crazy
soldier and he said to me are you crazy
soldier and he said to me are you crazy don’t you know this place is dangerous
don’t you know this place is dangerous
don’t you know this place is dangerous if I were you I would go back home to my
if I were you I would go back home to my
if I were you I would go back home to my country and never come back here and
country and never come back here and
country and never come back here and this was well-meaning advice he wasn’t
this was well-meaning advice he wasn’t
this was well-meaning advice he wasn’t trying to be rude so I reflected on this
trying to be rude so I reflected on this
trying to be rude so I reflected on this during my next interview as I stood in
during my next interview as I stood in
during my next interview as I stood in the weapons room of an international
the weapons room of an international
the weapons room of an international engineering firm the head of security
engineering firm the head of security
engineering firm the head of security was telling me a story about a
was telling me a story about a
was telling me a story about a streetlamp project in which the lamps
streetlamp project in which the lamps
streetlamp project in which the lamps themselves had been stolen the wiring
themselves had been stolen the wiring
themselves had been stolen the wiring inside the lamps was being used for
inside the lamps was being used for
inside the lamps was being used for making IEDs improvised explosive devices
making IEDs improvised explosive devices
making IEDs improvised explosive devices and the lamppost themselves were being
and the lamppost themselves were being
and the lamppost themselves were being used for directional firing so it’s in
used for directional firing so it’s in
used for directional firing so it’s in this environment that I began to
this environment that I began to
this environment that I began to recognize great wisdom in the words of
recognize great wisdom in the words of
recognize great wisdom in the words of government donor that I had spoken with
government donor that I had spoken with
government donor that I had spoken with earlier we’re going to get it wrong
earlier we’re going to get it wrong
earlier we’re going to get it wrong let’s be honest it’s almost impossible
let’s be honest it’s almost impossible
let’s be honest it’s almost impossible to avoid unintended consequences of our
to avoid unintended consequences of our
to avoid unintended consequences of our work here during my fieldwork in
work here during my fieldwork in
work here during my fieldwork in Afghanistan I interviewed a variety of
Afghanistan I interviewed a variety of
Afghanistan I interviewed a variety of reconstruction stakeholders I met with
reconstruction stakeholders I met with
reconstruction stakeholders I met with military personnel private companies
military personnel private companies
military personnel private companies government agencies and NGOs now
government agencies and NGOs now
government agencies and NGOs now remember the hearts and minds theory
remember the hearts and minds theory
remember the hearts and minds theory suggests foreign forces should bring
suggests foreign forces should bring
suggests foreign forces should bring development to reduce conflict by
development to reduce conflict by
development to reduce conflict by providing jobs and by building popular
providing jobs and by building popular
providing jobs and by building popular support but through my discussions I
support but through my discussions I
support but through my discussions I learned two important lessons which
learned two important lessons which
learned two important lessons which bring it to question that hearts and
bring it to question that hearts and
bring it to question that hearts and minds theory first foreign forces are
minds theory first foreign forces are
minds theory first foreign forces are self-interested the development goals of
self-interested the development goals of
self-interested the development goals of Western nations are shaped largely on
Western nations are shaped largely on
Western nations are shaped largely on politics back home and rarely on the
politics back home and rarely on the
politics back home and rarely on the needs of local communities there’s
needs of local communities there’s
needs of local communities there’s enormous pressure to just spend money to
enormous pressure to just spend money to
enormous pressure to just spend money to provide measurable visible inputs and so
provide measurable visible inputs and so
provide measurable visible inputs and so donors are often more concerned with
donors are often more concerned with
donors are often more concerned with satisfying electorates than with
satisfying electorates than with
satisfying electorates than with providing development outcomes for
providing development outcomes for
providing development outcomes for project recipients high-ranking official
project recipients high-ranking official
project recipients high-ranking official at a government a large government donor
at a government a large government donor
at a government a large government donor told me the following every project here
told me the following every project here
told me the following every project here is hugely political it’s all part of a
is hugely political it’s all part of a
is hugely political it’s all part of a big political process there are many
big political process there are many
big political process there are many many projects which I’m sure have a
many projects which I’m sure have a
many projects which I’m sure have a strong economic justification for doing
strong economic justification for doing
strong economic justification for doing them and maybe a strong social
them and maybe a strong social
them and maybe a strong social justification for doing them but
justification for doing them but
justification for doing them but overriding all of that are strong
overriding all of that are strong
overriding all of that are strong political reasons for doing them
the second insight gleaned from these
the second insight gleaned from these interviews is that community members
interviews is that community members
interviews is that community members don’t appreciate just any reconstruction
don’t appreciate just any reconstruction
don’t appreciate just any reconstruction project
project
project okay so health projects provide
okay so health projects provide
okay so health projects provide immediate concrete benefits that even
immediate concrete benefits that even
immediate concrete benefits that even Taliban members can enjoy but other
Taliban members can enjoy but other
Taliban members can enjoy but other projects can be ideologically
projects can be ideologically
projects can be ideologically controversial so security projects can
controversial so security projects can
controversial so security projects can be seen as a form of occupation and
be seen as a form of occupation and
be seen as a form of occupation and education projects can be seen as a form
education projects can be seen as a form
education projects can be seen as a form of indoctrination this is especially
of indoctrination this is especially
of indoctrination this is especially true when such projects are carried out
true when such projects are carried out
true when such projects are carried out by foreign militaries and this point is
by foreign militaries and this point is
by foreign militaries and this point is made clear through a story told to me by
made clear through a story told to me by
made clear through a story told to me by the head of an Afghan NGO in 2003 I was
the head of an Afghan NGO in 2003 I was
the head of an Afghan NGO in 2003 I was running a very big education project
running a very big education project
running a very big education project funded by donor X there was a mission to
funded by donor X there was a mission to
funded by donor X there was a mission to monitor the classes I said do not go
monitor the classes I said do not go
monitor the classes I said do not go with military tanks to monitor an
with military tanks to monitor an
with military tanks to monitor an education project they said we have to
education project they said we have to
education project they said we have to monitor and our Security section will
monitor and our Security section will
monitor and our Security section will not allow us to go like you I said look
not allow us to go like you I said look
not allow us to go like you I said look I can guarantee that I will take you to
I can guarantee that I will take you to
I can guarantee that I will take you to the farthest village in district Z you
the farthest village in district Z you
the farthest village in district Z you can monitor you can record you can film
can monitor you can record you can film
can monitor you can record you can film I will stand with you but if you go with
I will stand with you but if you go with
I will stand with you but if you go with guns and military tanks I will not go
guns and military tanks I will not go
guns and military tanks I will not go with you because you will destroy the
with you because you will destroy the
with you because you will destroy the whole process
whole process
whole process unfortunately they went in just one week
unfortunately they went in just one week
unfortunately they went in just one week after that three of our supervisors were
after that three of our supervisors were
after that three of our supervisors were killed and the person from donor X was
killed and the person from donor X was
killed and the person from donor X was just crying I said don’t cry now I told
just crying I said don’t cry now I told
just crying I said don’t cry now I told you you have to listen to us so armed
you you have to listen to us so armed
you you have to listen to us so armed with these two insights I retreated back
with these two insights I retreated back
with these two insights I retreated back to the lab and developed an alternative
to the lab and developed an alternative
to the lab and developed an alternative to the hearts and minds theory
to the hearts and minds theory
to the hearts and minds theory I built a mathematical model which
I built a mathematical model which
I built a mathematical model which describes the political rather than
describes the political rather than
describes the political rather than economic connection between
economic connection between
economic connection between reconstruction public opinion and
reconstruction public opinion and
reconstruction public opinion and conflict now without boring you with the
conflict now without boring you with the
conflict now without boring you with the mathematical details of that now suffice
mathematical details of that now suffice
mathematical details of that now suffice to say that in order to test whether or
to say that in order to test whether or
to say that in order to test whether or not these Greek formulas are of any use
not these Greek formulas are of any use
not these Greek formulas are of any use whatsoever I first needed to gather a
whatsoever I first needed to gather a
whatsoever I first needed to gather a bunch of sensitive data and information
bunch of sensitive data and information
bunch of sensitive data and information on reconstruction in Afghanistan is very
on reconstruction in Afghanistan is very
on reconstruction in Afghanistan is very difficult to access
difficult to access
difficult to access so NATO used to maintain a database
so NATO used to maintain a database
so NATO used to maintain a database online but that since been removed from
online but that since been removed from
online but that since been removed from the public domain and although it’s
the public domain and although it’s
the public domain and although it’s unclassified that the data is now
unclassified that the data is now
unclassified that the data is now contained by the US military somewhat
contained by the US military somewhat
contained by the US military somewhat miraculously I located a single
miraculously I located a single
miraculously I located a single surviving hard copy on a dusty library
surviving hard copy on a dusty library
surviving hard copy on a dusty library shelf in Kabul
shelf in Kabul
shelf in Kabul later I traveled to The Hague in the
later I traveled to The Hague in the
later I traveled to The Hague in the Netherlands to meet with NATO officials
Netherlands to meet with NATO officials
Netherlands to meet with NATO officials to negotiate access to public opinion
to negotiate access to public opinion
to negotiate access to public opinion surveys that they had been commissioning
surveys that they had been commissioning
surveys that they had been commissioning across the country and then I combined
across the country and then I combined
across the country and then I combined this reconstruction data and public
this reconstruction data and public
this reconstruction data and public opinion data together was conflict data
opinion data together was conflict data
opinion data together was conflict data gathered by US government officials and
gathered by US government officials and
gathered by US government officials and in that way I’m able to paint a picture
in that way I’m able to paint a picture
in that way I’m able to paint a picture of reconstruction public opinion and
of reconstruction public opinion and
of reconstruction public opinion and conflict across the country in total I
conflict across the country in total I
conflict across the country in total I have information on over 22,000 military
have information on over 22,000 military
have information on over 22,000 military led reconstruction projects this is what
led reconstruction projects this is what
led reconstruction projects this is what their intensity looks like when averaged
their intensity looks like when averaged
their intensity looks like when averaged over 57 months from 2005 to 2009 and
over 57 months from 2005 to 2009 and
over 57 months from 2005 to 2009 and mapped across 398 districts in the
mapped across 398 districts in the
mapped across 398 districts in the country these can then be linked to over
country these can then be linked to over
country these can then be linked to over 4,500 attacks initiated by insurgents
4,500 attacks initiated by insurgents
4,500 attacks initiated by insurgents documented over the same period using
documented over the same period using
documented over the same period using cutting-edge statistical techniques I
cutting-edge statistical techniques I
cutting-edge statistical techniques I can measure how reconstruction
can measure how reconstruction
can measure how reconstruction influences conflict within a local area
influences conflict within a local area
influences conflict within a local area and the results are quite striking so if
and the results are quite striking so if
and the results are quite striking so if we consider the average reconstruction
we consider the average reconstruction
we consider the average reconstruction project so take one at random
project so take one at random
project so take one at random there is no stabilizing effect on
there is no stabilizing effect on
there is no stabilizing effect on average so it does not affect conflict
average so it does not affect conflict
average so it does not affect conflict if we take project specifically designed
if we take project specifically designed
if we take project specifically designed to improve local economic conditions so
to improve local economic conditions so
to improve local economic conditions so those projects that are most likely to
those projects that are most likely to
those projects that are most likely to provide jobs and therefore reduce
provide jobs and therefore reduce
provide jobs and therefore reduce insurgency according to the hearts and
insurgency according to the hearts and
insurgency according to the hearts and minds theory we again find no effect on
minds theory we again find no effect on
minds theory we again find no effect on conflict so no stabilizing effect now
conflict so no stabilizing effect now
conflict so no stabilizing effect now this is important given 120 billion
this is important given 120 billion
this is important given 120 billion spent by the US on reconstruction with
spent by the US on reconstruction with
spent by the US on reconstruction with the expectation that it would bring
the expectation that it would bring
the expectation that it would bring stability now more optimistically if we
stability now more optimistically if we
stability now more optimistically if we consider health projects alone so
consider health projects alone so
consider health projects alone so building clinics training nurses
building clinics training nurses
building clinics training nurses distributing medical supplies here we do
distributing medical supplies here we do
distributing medical supplies here we do find these projects improve local
find these projects improve local
find these projects improve local stability but when foreign militaries
stability but when foreign militaries
stability but when foreign militaries build schools train teachers and engage
build schools train teachers and engage
build schools train teachers and engage in other education related activity the
in other education related activity the
in other education related activity the opposite occurs so military led
opposite occurs so military led
opposite occurs so military led education projects make conflict worse
education projects make conflict worse
education projects make conflict worse and that is especially true in the
and that is especially true in the
and that is especially true in the conservative self of Afghanistan there
conservative self of Afghanistan there
conservative self of Afghanistan there we also find that in the presence of
we also find that in the presence of
we also find that in the presence of these projects locals are more likely to
these projects locals are more likely to
these projects locals are more likely to suggest the reconstruction effort is
suggest the reconstruction effort is
suggest the reconstruction effort is going poorly and that should be scaled
going poorly and that should be scaled
going poorly and that should be scaled back
now please recall this research focuses
now please recall this research focuses on military led development and on civil
on military led development and on civil
on military led development and on civil aid from organizations like the UN the
aid from organizations like the UN the
aid from organizations like the UN the World Bank and so on civil aid in the
World Bank and so on civil aid in the
World Bank and so on civil aid in the education sector has no statistical
education sector has no statistical
education sector has no statistical effect on conflict as far as I know so
effect on conflict as far as I know so
effect on conflict as far as I know so I’m certainly not suggesting to cut
I’m certainly not suggesting to cut
I’m certainly not suggesting to cut education aid in general not by any
education aid in general not by any
education aid in general not by any means what the data do suggest is that
means what the data do suggest is that
means what the data do suggest is that we should be very careful when allowing
we should be very careful when allowing
we should be very careful when allowing foreign militaries to deliver aid as a
foreign militaries to deliver aid as a
foreign militaries to deliver aid as a means of fighting insurgents so in other
means of fighting insurgents so in other
means of fighting insurgents so in other words we ought to reconsider this hearts
words we ought to reconsider this hearts
words we ought to reconsider this hearts and minds theory as it currently stands
now post-conflict aid is messy business
now post-conflict aid is messy business a complete understanding is impossible
a complete understanding is impossible
a complete understanding is impossible even for veteran practitioners many of
even for veteran practitioners many of
even for veteran practitioners many of the foreign officials I met had never
the foreign officials I met had never
the foreign officials I met had never left their compounds so security
left their compounds so security
left their compounds so security protocol essentially left policymakers
protocol essentially left policymakers
protocol essentially left policymakers physically divided from the communities
physically divided from the communities
physically divided from the communities they serve in such an environment it
they serve in such an environment it
they serve in such an environment it would be sensible to empower local field
would be sensible to empower local field
would be sensible to empower local field workers with greater decision-making
workers with greater decision-making
workers with greater decision-making authority but their insights often find
authority but their insights often find
authority but their insights often find difficulty reaching these policymakers
difficulty reaching these policymakers
difficulty reaching these policymakers so it’s constructive I believe to
so it’s constructive I believe to
so it’s constructive I believe to examine the legitimacy of their views by
examine the legitimacy of their views by
examine the legitimacy of their views by testing for the scientific validity and
testing for the scientific validity and
testing for the scientific validity and only by doing so can we hope to obtain
only by doing so can we hope to obtain
only by doing so can we hope to obtain sound evidence-based policies and in
sound evidence-based policies and in
sound evidence-based policies and in pursuit of that ideal we should also
pursuit of that ideal we should also
pursuit of that ideal we should also accept that the scientific process
accept that the scientific process
accept that the scientific process itself will become unusual imperfect and
itself will become unusual imperfect and
itself will become unusual imperfect and sometimes even frightening thank you
you [Music]
good afternoon so back in the early
good afternoon so back in the early 2000s us-led coalition forces invaded
2000s us-led coalition forces invaded
2000s us-led coalition forces invaded Afghanistan and Iraq more than fifteen
Afghanistan and Iraq more than fifteen
Afghanistan and Iraq more than fifteen years later now both conflicts are
years later now both conflicts are
years later now both conflicts are ongoing and have together claimed the
ongoing and have together claimed the
ongoing and have together claimed the lives of over 200,000 civilians and over
lives of over 200,000 civilians and over
lives of over 200,000 civilians and over 8,000 foreign troops Stanley McChrystal
8,000 foreign troops Stanley McChrystal
8,000 foreign troops Stanley McChrystal the former commander of NATO operations
the former commander of NATO operations
the former commander of NATO operations in Afghanistan recently suggests that
in Afghanistan recently suggests that
in Afghanistan recently suggests that the Taliban’s influence is stronger than
the Taliban’s influence is stronger than
the Taliban’s influence is stronger than it’s been at any point since the
it’s been at any point since the
it’s been at any point since the invasion and meanwhile suicide attacks
invasion and meanwhile suicide attacks
invasion and meanwhile suicide attacks continue to rock both nations capitals
continue to rock both nations capitals
continue to rock both nations capitals so aside from standard military
so aside from standard military
so aside from standard military operations a major cornerstone of both
operations a major cornerstone of both
operations a major cornerstone of both interventions has been reconstruction
interventions has been reconstruction
interventions has been reconstruction activity so that as development projects
activity so that as development projects
activity so that as development projects aiming to strengthen the state and grow
aiming to strengthen the state and grow
aiming to strengthen the state and grow the economy
the economy
the economy to this end US government alone has
to this end US government alone has
to this end US government alone has spent over 80 billion dollars in Iraq
spent over 80 billion dollars in Iraq
spent over 80 billion dollars in Iraq and over 120 billion dollars in
and over 120 billion dollars in
and over 120 billion dollars in Afghanistan now traditionally
Afghanistan now traditionally
Afghanistan now traditionally development aid is channelled into
development aid is channelled into
development aid is channelled into post-conflict settings through
post-conflict settings through
post-conflict settings through Development Bank’s international NGOs
Development Bank’s international NGOs
Development Bank’s international NGOs private companies and government
private companies and government
private companies and government agencies but in Iraq and Afghanistan
agencies but in Iraq and Afghanistan
agencies but in Iraq and Afghanistan foreign militaries have also entered
foreign militaries have also entered
foreign militaries have also entered that mix Provincial Reconstruction teams
that mix Provincial Reconstruction teams
that mix Provincial Reconstruction teams or PRTs our military base is set up to
or PRTs our military base is set up to
or PRTs our military base is set up to deliver aid in the sectors of health
deliver aid in the sectors of health
deliver aid in the sectors of health education agriculture transportation
education agriculture transportation
education agriculture transportation security you name it so in other words
security you name it so in other words
security you name it so in other words foreign militaries where they’re
foreign militaries where they’re
foreign militaries where they’re building hospitals clinics schools roads
building hospitals clinics schools roads
building hospitals clinics schools roads courthouses district offices and so on
courthouses district offices and so on
courthouses district offices and so on my research examines how military led
my research examines how military led
my research examines how military led reconstruction influences conflict the
reconstruction influences conflict the
reconstruction influences conflict the US Army counterinsurgency Field Manual
US Army counterinsurgency Field Manual
US Army counterinsurgency Field Manual stresses reconstruction is a key
stresses reconstruction is a key
stresses reconstruction is a key strategy in the fight against insurgents
strategy in the fight against insurgents
strategy in the fight against insurgents this approach is based on hearts and
this approach is based on hearts and
this approach is based on hearts and minds credo which suggests first that
minds credo which suggests first that
minds credo which suggests first that development projects provide jobs for
development projects provide jobs for
development projects provide jobs for people who would otherwise become
people who would otherwise become
people who would otherwise become insurgents and second that development
insurgents and second that development
insurgents and second that development projects are appreciated by the
projects are appreciated by the
projects are appreciated by the community
community
community but and they help build popular support
but and they help build popular support
but and they help build popular support now this theory has been widely adopted
now this theory has been widely adopted
now this theory has been widely adopted by government officials military
by government officials military
by government officials military personnel media analysts and many
personnel media analysts and many
personnel media analysts and many academics but there’s actually very
academics but there’s actually very
academics but there’s actually very little evidence to suggest that
little evidence to suggest that
little evidence to suggest that reconstruction and development aid is
reconstruction and development aid is
reconstruction and development aid is actually effective at bringing peace and
actually effective at bringing peace and
actually effective at bringing peace and stability
so with this puzzle in mind I traveled
so with this puzzle in mind I traveled to Afghanistan to ask experts on the
to Afghanistan to ask experts on the
to Afghanistan to ask experts on the ground what their views were regarding
ground what their views were regarding
ground what their views were regarding reconstruction now traveling to
reconstruction now traveling to
reconstruction now traveling to Afghanistan was not an easy decision to
Afghanistan was not an easy decision to
Afghanistan was not an easy decision to make so my strategy was essentially to
make so my strategy was essentially to
make so my strategy was essentially to tell everyone that I knew that I was
tell everyone that I knew that I was
tell everyone that I knew that I was going and that way it became too
going and that way it became too
going and that way it became too embarrassing to back out later on no
embarrassing to back out later on no
embarrassing to back out later on no matter how tempting that became my
matter how tempting that became my
matter how tempting that became my advisors negotiated special permission
advisors negotiated special permission
advisors negotiated special permission for my trip with the university
for my trip with the university
for my trip with the university administrators and when embassy staff
administrators and when embassy staff
administrators and when embassy staff finally stamped my passport and said
finally stamped my passport and said
finally stamped my passport and said congratulations you’re going to
congratulations you’re going to
congratulations you’re going to Afghanistan my heart froze with anxiety
Afghanistan my heart froze with anxiety
Afghanistan my heart froze with anxiety so as I boarded the plane took a bowl
so as I boarded the plane took a bowl
so as I boarded the plane took a bowl alongside businessmen in suits and
alongside businessmen in suits and
alongside businessmen in suits and security contractors covered in tattoos
security contractors covered in tattoos
security contractors covered in tattoos I felt vastly out of place but once I
I felt vastly out of place but once I
I felt vastly out of place but once I sat down and opened up the in-flight
sat down and opened up the in-flight
sat down and opened up the in-flight magazine I was greeted on page 1 with a
magazine I was greeted on page 1 with a
magazine I was greeted on page 1 with a plea by the US government to report
plea by the US government to report
plea by the US government to report fraud waste and abuse of reconstruction
fraud waste and abuse of reconstruction
fraud waste and abuse of reconstruction money so suddenly I felt emboldened to
money so suddenly I felt emboldened to
money so suddenly I felt emboldened to carry out this research agenda in the
carry out this research agenda in the
carry out this research agenda in the field my first day in Kabul an
field my first day in Kabul an
field my first day in Kabul an acquaintance of mine led me around the
acquaintance of mine led me around the
acquaintance of mine led me around the city center together we eat food in
city center together we eat food in
city center together we eat food in roadside eateries we wandered through
roadside eateries we wandered through
roadside eateries we wandered through busy market squares bartered with locals
busy market squares bartered with locals
busy market squares bartered with locals visited mosques and even attended a
visited mosques and even attended a
visited mosques and even attended a pottery workshop by the end of that
pottery workshop by the end of that
pottery workshop by the end of that first day I was thinking to myself this
first day I was thinking to myself this
first day I was thinking to myself this place isn’t so scary it’s quite
place isn’t so scary it’s quite
place isn’t so scary it’s quite delightful actually but later that
delightful actually but later that
delightful actually but later that evening I was instructed not to walk two
evening I was instructed not to walk two
evening I was instructed not to walk two blocks in the dark and was taken instead
blocks in the dark and was taken instead
blocks in the dark and was taken instead by taxi to my new home which was just
by taxi to my new home which was just
by taxi to my new home which was just 100 meters away from where we were my
100 meters away from where we were my
100 meters away from where we were my house was surrounded by three metre tall
house was surrounded by three metre tall
house was surrounded by three metre tall concrete blast wall topped with razor
concrete blast wall topped with razor
concrete blast wall topped with razor wire and guarded by an ex Special Forces
wire and guarded by an ex Special Forces
wire and guarded by an ex Special Forces operative who was regularly receiving
operative who was regularly receiving
operative who was regularly receiving death threats from the Taliban at the
death threats from the Taliban at the
death threats from the Taliban at the time my new flatmates were a group of
time my new flatmates were a group of
time my new flatmates were a group of war correspondents who briefed me on the
war correspondents who briefed me on the
war correspondents who briefed me on the contingency escape plan in the event of
contingency escape plan in the event of
contingency escape plan in the event of a Taliban raid suddenly Kabul seemed a
a Taliban raid suddenly Kabul seemed a
a Taliban raid suddenly Kabul seemed a bit less relaxing my first interview was
bit less relaxing my first interview was
bit less relaxing my first interview was the following day at the flower Street
the following day at the flower Street
the following day at the flower Street Cafe which sounds like a very relaxing
Cafe which sounds like a very relaxing
Cafe which sounds like a very relaxing inviting kind of place
inviting kind of place
inviting kind of place the cafe entrance however consisted of
the cafe entrance however consisted of
the cafe entrance however consisted of two guards armed with ak-47s and double
two guards armed with ak-47s and double
two guards armed with ak-47s and double airlock steel gates my next interview
airlock steel gates my next interview
airlock steel gates my next interview was at the compound of an Afghan
was at the compound of an Afghan
was at the compound of an Afghan construction company together with the
construction company together with the
construction company together with the CEO I had lunch on the rooftop
CEO I had lunch on the rooftop
CEO I had lunch on the rooftop while helicopters hovered overhead and
while helicopters hovered overhead and
while helicopters hovered overhead and he regaled me with first-hand tales of
he regaled me with first-hand tales of
he regaled me with first-hand tales of corruption in the north members of
corruption in the north members of
corruption in the north members of parliament
parliament
parliament forced him to buy a gravel supplies from
forced him to buy a gravel supplies from
forced him to buy a gravel supplies from their family firms in exchange for
their family firms in exchange for
their family firms in exchange for protection in the east heavily guarded
protection in the east heavily guarded
protection in the east heavily guarded road construction project drew Taliban
road construction project drew Taliban
road construction project drew Taliban fire every day until he eventually gave
fire every day until he eventually gave
fire every day until he eventually gave them a carpet for their mosque as a gift
them a carpet for their mosque as a gift
them a carpet for their mosque as a gift I spent my days taking street cars from
I spent my days taking street cars from
I spent my days taking street cars from compound to compound to conduct these
compound to compound to conduct these
compound to compound to conduct these interviews using hand-drawn maps for
interviews using hand-drawn maps for
interviews using hand-drawn maps for direction for the most part these
direction for the most part these
direction for the most part these military checkpoints and ak-47s were
military checkpoints and ak-47s were
military checkpoints and ak-47s were absolutely everywhere and so even my
absolutely everywhere and so even my
absolutely everywhere and so even my limited dari language skills proved
limited dari language skills proved
limited dari language skills proved enormously comforting and useful as I
enormously comforting and useful as I
enormously comforting and useful as I navigate it throughout the city but as
navigate it throughout the city but as
navigate it throughout the city but as weeks pass by I grew increasingly
weeks pass by I grew increasingly
weeks pass by I grew increasingly apprehensive in a misguided attempt to
apprehensive in a misguided attempt to
apprehensive in a misguided attempt to appear less Western I lost my hip-hop
appear less Western I lost my hip-hop
appear less Western I lost my hip-hop swagger and even grew a beard failing to
swagger and even grew a beard failing to
swagger and even grew a beard failing to recognize that nobody else in Kabul
recognize that nobody else in Kabul
recognize that nobody else in Kabul looks even remotely like that one taxi
looks even remotely like that one taxi
looks even remotely like that one taxi driver told me I look like a badass
driver told me I look like a badass
driver told me I look like a badass Chechen gangster and I took that to be a
Chechen gangster and I took that to be a
Chechen gangster and I took that to be a compliment actually it was much better
compliment actually it was much better
compliment actually it was much better than a vulnerable Canadian economist
than a vulnerable Canadian economist
than a vulnerable Canadian economist which was the reality of the situation
which was the reality of the situation
which was the reality of the situation on a more serious note I learned my
on a more serious note I learned my
on a more serious note I learned my favorite supermarket and shopping mall
favorite supermarket and shopping mall
favorite supermarket and shopping mall had both been bombed recently one day
had both been bombed recently one day
had both been bombed recently one day garbage can exploded in my neighborhood
garbage can exploded in my neighborhood
garbage can exploded in my neighborhood another day suicide car bomb detonated
another day suicide car bomb detonated
another day suicide car bomb detonated near my friend’s house and killed dozens
near my friend’s house and killed dozens
near my friend’s house and killed dozens of people
of people
of people later I would learn that one of my
later I would learn that one of my
later I would learn that one of my interview locations was raided by the
interview locations was raided by the
interview locations was raided by the Taliban and they killed everybody inside
Taliban and they killed everybody inside
Taliban and they killed everybody inside like 21 people as I wait
like 21 people as I wait
like 21 people as I wait for military clearance when they had a
for military clearance when they had a
for military clearance when they had a checkpoint I was speaking with an Afghan
checkpoint I was speaking with an Afghan
checkpoint I was speaking with an Afghan soldier and he said to me are you crazy
soldier and he said to me are you crazy
soldier and he said to me are you crazy don’t you know this place is dangerous
don’t you know this place is dangerous
don’t you know this place is dangerous if I were you I would go back home to my
if I were you I would go back home to my
if I were you I would go back home to my country and never come back here and
country and never come back here and
country and never come back here and this was well-meaning advice he wasn’t
this was well-meaning advice he wasn’t
this was well-meaning advice he wasn’t trying to be rude so I reflected on this
trying to be rude so I reflected on this
trying to be rude so I reflected on this during my next interview as I stood in
during my next interview as I stood in
during my next interview as I stood in the weapons room of an international
the weapons room of an international
the weapons room of an international engineering firm the head of security
engineering firm the head of security
engineering firm the head of security was telling me a story about a
was telling me a story about a
was telling me a story about a streetlamp project in which the lamps
streetlamp project in which the lamps
streetlamp project in which the lamps themselves had been stolen the wiring
themselves had been stolen the wiring
themselves had been stolen the wiring inside the lamps was being used for
inside the lamps was being used for
inside the lamps was being used for making IEDs improvised explosive devices
making IEDs improvised explosive devices
making IEDs improvised explosive devices and the lamppost themselves were being
and the lamppost themselves were being
and the lamppost themselves were being used for directional firing so it’s in
used for directional firing so it’s in
used for directional firing so it’s in this environment that I began to
this environment that I began to
this environment that I began to recognize great wisdom in the words of
recognize great wisdom in the words of
recognize great wisdom in the words of government donor that I had spoken with
government donor that I had spoken with
government donor that I had spoken with earlier we’re going to get it wrong
earlier we’re going to get it wrong
earlier we’re going to get it wrong let’s be honest it’s almost impossible
let’s be honest it’s almost impossible
let’s be honest it’s almost impossible to avoid unintended consequences of our
to avoid unintended consequences of our
to avoid unintended consequences of our work here during my fieldwork in
work here during my fieldwork in
work here during my fieldwork in Afghanistan I interviewed a variety of
Afghanistan I interviewed a variety of
Afghanistan I interviewed a variety of reconstruction stakeholders I met with
reconstruction stakeholders I met with
reconstruction stakeholders I met with military personnel private companies
military personnel private companies
military personnel private companies government agencies and NGOs now
government agencies and NGOs now
government agencies and NGOs now remember the hearts and minds theory
remember the hearts and minds theory
remember the hearts and minds theory suggests foreign forces should bring
suggests foreign forces should bring
suggests foreign forces should bring development to reduce conflict by
development to reduce conflict by
development to reduce conflict by providing jobs and by building popular
providing jobs and by building popular
providing jobs and by building popular support but through my discussions I
support but through my discussions I
support but through my discussions I learned two important lessons which
learned two important lessons which
learned two important lessons which bring it to question that hearts and
bring it to question that hearts and
bring it to question that hearts and minds theory first foreign forces are
minds theory first foreign forces are
minds theory first foreign forces are self-interested the development goals of
self-interested the development goals of
self-interested the development goals of Western nations are shaped largely on
Western nations are shaped largely on
Western nations are shaped largely on politics back home and rarely on the
politics back home and rarely on the
politics back home and rarely on the needs of local communities there’s
needs of local communities there’s
needs of local communities there’s enormous pressure to just spend money to
enormous pressure to just spend money to
enormous pressure to just spend money to provide measurable visible inputs and so
provide measurable visible inputs and so
provide measurable visible inputs and so donors are often more concerned with
donors are often more concerned with
donors are often more concerned with satisfying electorates than with
satisfying electorates than with
satisfying electorates than with providing development outcomes for
providing development outcomes for
providing development outcomes for project recipients high-ranking official
project recipients high-ranking official
project recipients high-ranking official at a government a large government donor
at a government a large government donor
at a government a large government donor told me the following every project here
told me the following every project here
told me the following every project here is hugely political it’s all part of a
is hugely political it’s all part of a
is hugely political it’s all part of a big political process there are many
big political process there are many
big political process there are many many projects which I’m sure have a
many projects which I’m sure have a
many projects which I’m sure have a strong economic justification for doing
strong economic justification for doing
strong economic justification for doing them and maybe a strong social
them and maybe a strong social
them and maybe a strong social justification for doing them but
justification for doing them but
justification for doing them but overriding all of that are strong
overriding all of that are strong
overriding all of that are strong political reasons for doing them
the second insight gleaned from these
the second insight gleaned from these interviews is that community members
interviews is that community members
interviews is that community members don’t appreciate just any reconstruction
don’t appreciate just any reconstruction
don’t appreciate just any reconstruction project
project
project okay so health projects provide
okay so health projects provide
okay so health projects provide immediate concrete benefits that even
immediate concrete benefits that even
immediate concrete benefits that even Taliban members can enjoy but other
Taliban members can enjoy but other
Taliban members can enjoy but other projects can be ideologically
projects can be ideologically
projects can be ideologically controversial so security projects can
controversial so security projects can
controversial so security projects can be seen as a form of occupation and
be seen as a form of occupation and
be seen as a form of occupation and education projects can be seen as a form
education projects can be seen as a form
education projects can be seen as a form of indoctrination this is especially
of indoctrination this is especially
of indoctrination this is especially true when such projects are carried out
true when such projects are carried out
true when such projects are carried out by foreign militaries and this point is
by foreign militaries and this point is
by foreign militaries and this point is made clear through a story told to me by
made clear through a story told to me by
made clear through a story told to me by the head of an Afghan NGO in 2003 I was
the head of an Afghan NGO in 2003 I was
the head of an Afghan NGO in 2003 I was running a very big education project
running a very big education project
running a very big education project funded by donor X there was a mission to
funded by donor X there was a mission to
funded by donor X there was a mission to monitor the classes I said do not go
monitor the classes I said do not go
monitor the classes I said do not go with military tanks to monitor an
with military tanks to monitor an
with military tanks to monitor an education project they said we have to
education project they said we have to
education project they said we have to monitor and our Security section will
monitor and our Security section will
monitor and our Security section will not allow us to go like you I said look
not allow us to go like you I said look
not allow us to go like you I said look I can guarantee that I will take you to
I can guarantee that I will take you to
I can guarantee that I will take you to the farthest village in district Z you
the farthest village in district Z you
the farthest village in district Z you can monitor you can record you can film
can monitor you can record you can film
can monitor you can record you can film I will stand with you but if you go with
I will stand with you but if you go with
I will stand with you but if you go with guns and military tanks I will not go
guns and military tanks I will not go
guns and military tanks I will not go with you because you will destroy the
with you because you will destroy the
with you because you will destroy the whole process
whole process
whole process unfortunately they went in just one week
unfortunately they went in just one week
unfortunately they went in just one week after that three of our supervisors were
after that three of our supervisors were
after that three of our supervisors were killed and the person from donor X was
killed and the person from donor X was
killed and the person from donor X was just crying I said don’t cry now I told
just crying I said don’t cry now I told
just crying I said don’t cry now I told you you have to listen to us so armed
you you have to listen to us so armed
you you have to listen to us so armed with these two insights I retreated back
with these two insights I retreated back
with these two insights I retreated back to the lab and developed an alternative
to the lab and developed an alternative
to the lab and developed an alternative to the hearts and minds theory
to the hearts and minds theory
to the hearts and minds theory I built a mathematical model which
I built a mathematical model which
I built a mathematical model which describes the political rather than
describes the political rather than
describes the political rather than economic connection between
economic connection between
economic connection between reconstruction public opinion and
reconstruction public opinion and
reconstruction public opinion and conflict now without boring you with the
conflict now without boring you with the
conflict now without boring you with the mathematical details of that now suffice
mathematical details of that now suffice
mathematical details of that now suffice to say that in order to test whether or
to say that in order to test whether or
to say that in order to test whether or not these Greek formulas are of any use
not these Greek formulas are of any use
not these Greek formulas are of any use whatsoever I first needed to gather a
whatsoever I first needed to gather a
whatsoever I first needed to gather a bunch of sensitive data and information
bunch of sensitive data and information
bunch of sensitive data and information on reconstruction in Afghanistan is very
on reconstruction in Afghanistan is very
on reconstruction in Afghanistan is very difficult to access
difficult to access
difficult to access so NATO used to maintain a database
so NATO used to maintain a database
so NATO used to maintain a database online but that since been removed from
online but that since been removed from
online but that since been removed from the public domain and although it’s
the public domain and although it’s
the public domain and although it’s unclassified that the data is now
unclassified that the data is now
unclassified that the data is now contained by the US military somewhat
contained by the US military somewhat
contained by the US military somewhat miraculously I located a single
miraculously I located a single
miraculously I located a single surviving hard copy on a dusty library
surviving hard copy on a dusty library
surviving hard copy on a dusty library shelf in Kabul
shelf in Kabul
shelf in Kabul later I traveled to The Hague in the
later I traveled to The Hague in the
later I traveled to The Hague in the Netherlands to meet with NATO officials
Netherlands to meet with NATO officials
Netherlands to meet with NATO officials to negotiate access to public opinion
to negotiate access to public opinion
to negotiate access to public opinion surveys that they had been commissioning
surveys that they had been commissioning
surveys that they had been commissioning across the country and then I combined
across the country and then I combined
across the country and then I combined this reconstruction data and public
this reconstruction data and public
this reconstruction data and public opinion data together was conflict data
opinion data together was conflict data
opinion data together was conflict data gathered by US government officials and
gathered by US government officials and
gathered by US government officials and in that way I’m able to paint a picture
in that way I’m able to paint a picture
in that way I’m able to paint a picture of reconstruction public opinion and
of reconstruction public opinion and
of reconstruction public opinion and conflict across the country in total I
conflict across the country in total I
conflict across the country in total I have information on over 22,000 military
have information on over 22,000 military
have information on over 22,000 military led reconstruction projects this is what
led reconstruction projects this is what
led reconstruction projects this is what their intensity looks like when averaged
their intensity looks like when averaged
their intensity looks like when averaged over 57 months from 2005 to 2009 and
over 57 months from 2005 to 2009 and
over 57 months from 2005 to 2009 and mapped across 398 districts in the
mapped across 398 districts in the
mapped across 398 districts in the country these can then be linked to over
country these can then be linked to over
country these can then be linked to over 4,500 attacks initiated by insurgents
4,500 attacks initiated by insurgents
4,500 attacks initiated by insurgents documented over the same period using
documented over the same period using
documented over the same period using cutting-edge statistical techniques I
cutting-edge statistical techniques I
cutting-edge statistical techniques I can measure how reconstruction
can measure how reconstruction
can measure how reconstruction influences conflict within a local area
influences conflict within a local area
influences conflict within a local area and the results are quite striking so if
and the results are quite striking so if
and the results are quite striking so if we consider the average reconstruction
we consider the average reconstruction
we consider the average reconstruction project so take one at random
project so take one at random
project so take one at random there is no stabilizing effect on
there is no stabilizing effect on
there is no stabilizing effect on average so it does not affect conflict
average so it does not affect conflict
average so it does not affect conflict if we take project specifically designed
if we take project specifically designed
if we take project specifically designed to improve local economic conditions so
to improve local economic conditions so
to improve local economic conditions so those projects that are most likely to
those projects that are most likely to
those projects that are most likely to provide jobs and therefore reduce
provide jobs and therefore reduce
provide jobs and therefore reduce insurgency according to the hearts and
insurgency according to the hearts and
insurgency according to the hearts and minds theory we again find no effect on
minds theory we again find no effect on
minds theory we again find no effect on conflict so no stabilizing effect now
conflict so no stabilizing effect now
conflict so no stabilizing effect now this is important given 120 billion
this is important given 120 billion
this is important given 120 billion spent by the US on reconstruction with
spent by the US on reconstruction with
spent by the US on reconstruction with the expectation that it would bring
the expectation that it would bring
the expectation that it would bring stability now more optimistically if we
stability now more optimistically if we
stability now more optimistically if we consider health projects alone so
consider health projects alone so
consider health projects alone so building clinics training nurses
building clinics training nurses
building clinics training nurses distributing medical supplies here we do
distributing medical supplies here we do
distributing medical supplies here we do find these projects improve local
find these projects improve local
find these projects improve local stability but when foreign militaries
stability but when foreign militaries
stability but when foreign militaries build schools train teachers and engage
build schools train teachers and engage
build schools train teachers and engage in other education related activity the
in other education related activity the
in other education related activity the opposite occurs so military led
opposite occurs so military led
opposite occurs so military led education projects make conflict worse
education projects make conflict worse
education projects make conflict worse and that is especially true in the
and that is especially true in the
and that is especially true in the conservative self of Afghanistan there
conservative self of Afghanistan there
conservative self of Afghanistan there we also find that in the presence of
we also find that in the presence of
we also find that in the presence of these projects locals are more likely to
these projects locals are more likely to
these projects locals are more likely to suggest the reconstruction effort is
suggest the reconstruction effort is
suggest the reconstruction effort is going poorly and that should be scaled
going poorly and that should be scaled
going poorly and that should be scaled back
now please recall this research focuses
now please recall this research focuses on military led development and on civil
on military led development and on civil
on military led development and on civil aid from organizations like the UN the
aid from organizations like the UN the
aid from organizations like the UN the World Bank and so on civil aid in the
World Bank and so on civil aid in the
World Bank and so on civil aid in the education sector has no statistical
education sector has no statistical
education sector has no statistical effect on conflict as far as I know so
effect on conflict as far as I know so
effect on conflict as far as I know so I’m certainly not suggesting to cut
I’m certainly not suggesting to cut
I’m certainly not suggesting to cut education aid in general not by any
education aid in general not by any
education aid in general not by any means what the data do suggest is that
means what the data do suggest is that
means what the data do suggest is that we should be very careful when allowing
we should be very careful when allowing
we should be very careful when allowing foreign militaries to deliver aid as a
foreign militaries to deliver aid as a
foreign militaries to deliver aid as a means of fighting insurgents so in other
means of fighting insurgents so in other
means of fighting insurgents so in other words we ought to reconsider this hearts
words we ought to reconsider this hearts
words we ought to reconsider this hearts and minds theory as it currently stands
now post-conflict aid is messy business
now post-conflict aid is messy business a complete understanding is impossible
a complete understanding is impossible
a complete understanding is impossible even for veteran practitioners many of
even for veteran practitioners many of
even for veteran practitioners many of the foreign officials I met had never
the foreign officials I met had never
the foreign officials I met had never left their compounds so security
left their compounds so security
left their compounds so security protocol essentially left policymakers
protocol essentially left policymakers
protocol essentially left policymakers physically divided from the communities
physically divided from the communities
physically divided from the communities they serve in such an environment it
they serve in such an environment it
they serve in such an environment it would be sensible to empower local field
would be sensible to empower local field
would be sensible to empower local field workers with greater decision-making
workers with greater decision-making
workers with greater decision-making authority but their insights often find
authority but their insights often find
authority but their insights often find difficulty reaching these policymakers
difficulty reaching these policymakers
difficulty reaching these policymakers so it’s constructive I believe to
so it’s constructive I believe to
so it’s constructive I believe to examine the legitimacy of their views by
examine the legitimacy of their views by
examine the legitimacy of their views by testing for the scientific validity and
testing for the scientific validity and
testing for the scientific validity and only by doing so can we hope to obtain
only by doing so can we hope to obtain
only by doing so can we hope to obtain sound evidence-based policies and in
sound evidence-based policies and in
sound evidence-based policies and in pursuit of that ideal we should also
pursuit of that ideal we should also
pursuit of that ideal we should also accept that the scientific process
accept that the scientific process
accept that the scientific process itself will become unusual imperfect and
itself will become unusual imperfect and
itself will become unusual imperfect and sometimes even frightening thank you
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