I really like to sort of envy how you
after a couple of minutes can actually
predict the future in a very serious way
so we need some tools I brought four
tools with you and I brought a list of
people that inspired me and hopefully
also inspired you and you already saw
bubbles he’s just one of them but first
of all well the problem is of course in
school time we everyone has been told
you cannot predict the future we need a
timer by the way and the problem is that
it actually can be done the future is
actually already here if you look to
certain signals because the future is
built of what we are and what we’re
doing right now but the problem is how
to see it how to observe what is
actually happening and there’s
Distortion there’s a lot of distortion
by giving a vision a objective vision on
the future and well the most problematic
distortion comes from politicians like
this interview it was in 2007 for Forbes
magazine and they asked me what one
thing you were sure would happen but
didn’t 2007 already just ten years ago
and my answer was the climate change
would be taken seriously by governments
and there’s an entire story behind that
you can look it up but actually when
when the signals were there for climate
change on what level we were not sure
about but that didn’t happen that much
at all if an Al Gore was active and
people like that but still it didn’t
happen large corporations just a
marketing level on doing some
interesting things on sustainability so
there’s the problem how can we filter
other’s political engagements and
objective observations well let me tell
you if you look through the future you
got to be realistic and
realize what is actually not changing
because most things in our life and
generations before us did not change
I’ll come back to that later and you
have to take care of your sourcing where
do you get your information well on the
internet of course but as you might know
at this moment we live in this
information bubble everyone has his own
information bubble up based on your age
religion political ideas and so on and
the Facebook’s and the googles and all
the companies give you your perfect
information bubble to make you sort of
happy but it’s not what we want to see
because we want to have signals to
detect what’s going to happen in the
future so you got to have a broad list
of different sources unusual sources
like comic strips cabaret whatever
everything that’s happening commercials
that give us a sort of view into the
future even scientific books or science
fiction everything what was thought by
was was made up by people later on on
certain moment became reality
unlike flying cars described already in
the 40s and the 50s of the last century
at this moment there’s pelvis Dutch
fly-in car is commercialized it’s
available now but it took decades to
prepare it and now it is available and
what we will see police can use it and
maybe we can fly as well within a couple
of years so the problem apparently is
the timing everything we can imagine is
going to happen sometime but we want to
know when because we want to invest on
it we want to make decisions for
choosing a study or a profession or
whatsoever so we have to look for this
timing problem and as I said predicting
the future is easy if you know how to do
it I’m gonna explain it to you but I got
a few examples let me introduce you five
friends as a set thing but they all
passed away and then I was privileged to
work with all of them
and this is Alvin Toffler I presume most
of you do know this man you work with
this wife Heidi like I do with my wife
Lika on searching on the future doing
scientific work calculate it you can
calculate for the future as well
and well as he said the future always
arrives too fast and in the wrong order
there’s a problem to deal with
but he also wrote this book called the
future shock back in the 70s and he
described the current society in fact
the people should manage huge amounts of
information and signs and signals and
well the brain got to get used to it and
most of us can deal with that but some
of us cannot deal with it that are it’s
sort of overwhelming for them so it was
quite timely seen back in the 70s that
were going this way how could he do that
because he understood what computers
were doing at that time I remember the
70s huge computers like the PC wasn’t
invented yet the ARPANET a– the
predecessor of the internet was already
in place but in the beginning just
connecting for a computer system with
each other so it’s not what we know
right now but he could calculate and
understand how fast it could grow and
what this would mean with data
information knowledge wisdom to us as a
user and maybe this name doesn’t give
you doesn’t ring you a bell to you diced
Janowski it’s Dutch and well as you can
see this is the the file just cannot a
puppet show long long ago he well he was
TV producer I made this up but he was a
sort of multicultural a multi-talented
guy he was jazz musician and scientists
as well on i.t and for instance he was
working later on on a system called the
aqua browser and the idea of an aqua
so called self announcing information
like there is something in a computer
like I spoken before today like there’s
a huge amount of medical information and
we want to do something with it okay we
create something like this information
when it becomes relevant to me as a user
it sort of says hey I’m here
start using me or connecting me to other
sources of information that’s what we
like and that’s what he created
it’s an aqua browser and it’s made for
closed information systems so that’s why
we don’t see it yet on the internet for
instance you have to recalculate all the
information which is available which you
can do with a library for instance so it
was very quick and once I worked with
him and he told me any 80s he said you
know what we got TV right now but in the
meantime just a couple of years ago
later on almost everything will be
canned and record it before it will be
broadcasted and there’s another thing
sports sports events and news okay there
will be broadcasted life but there will
be live streaming worldwide over the
Internet and now we know he meant things
like Netflix and Spotify and he said
well that’s gonna change the business
models of all the broadcasters and they
don’t recognize it in the beginning well
as you can see right now with the RTL
SBS and other broadcasters they start
recognizing that the money of the
advertisers is going to just a couple of
large companies working on live
streaming and as you have seen that like
Netflix for instance they’re just
raising the subscription pricing so it’s
a quite an interesting model but
completely changing the way we do use
media this is March or Accra natesan and
also living in a tunnel ins an arctic
explorer but also a climate scientist
architect originally in fact very clever
and long ago he explained to me hey when
the ice is
melting on the north pole the collar be
it goes from wet has heard from White’s
tube-like
and we will have a problem because when
it becomes darker but the melting goes
faster and faster and AIDS is sort of
exponential and unfortunately on one of
his trips the last one of course he
didn’t make it so he really died over
there and well it was maybe symbolic but
it was quite tough of course but all the
work that he left at the the most
important thing that he did he took
expeditions to the North Pole and put
all kind of sensors and actors measuring
the climate and the ice and and stuff
like that
very bright figure and check out all
these figures on the internet because
there’s a ton of information and nice
projects from them available this is
pretty terraria and gt3-r was sort of
Inspector Gadget who knows fifties are
by the way because it’s a generation
thing if notice once I was working with
him with at the University of Delft and
he he explained that well he had of
course he lived in the time there was no
microwave and stuff like that and he
explained how everything went so fast
that he couldn’t even catch it up and
that he couldn’t explain it to the
people surrounding him because he saw
all the different gadgets and new
consumer electronics but most people
just su saw just a few things and it
could not connect and because he saw so
many new devices
he could easily detect whether something
was completely new or something old
presented as new by the way the image
here on the background is a phone on his
bicycle it was a fool’s day joke and he
invited the Dutch people hey do you want
to have this bike with a phone write me
a postcard and you can join in and a lot
of people did he had some humor as well
well what goes
was prepared as well a my talk but
fortunately we could show the entire
video on time
and gravity and act being honest it took
me five times to completely understand
the video and he explained it to me and
then finally I got to click and his idea
was to write a book about it and then
come that far but there are some people
thinking about it to sort of well
recreated and and look what we could do
with this information to breathe to the
world well I started my talk with
promising you that you could predict the
future so we got to work I got four
tools for you and two rules of thumb and
but we start with the future funnel
because what I noticed I started back in
89 I noticed to predict something in the
far future is way more easy than
predicting something for next year or
within two years like predicting the
anchoring Society will peak around
something like 2035 37 by about but in
fact because I’m taking this long term
prediction it doesn’t matter exactly
when it will be as long as I know all
it’s something about it because there
might something happen
migration emigration whatever that may
be a volcano might burst out in in
Germany there’s a volcano at cheer that
could calculate it could be active in
the decays ago we’ll see hopefully not
of course so first start predicting far
away and then bring it back to the years
to come
that’s often used I like you’re
sketching then the trends and then bring
it back to strategy for an organization
or your personal ideas that’s number one
there’s the first law what I call and
well be aware whether you you can agree
on it I think nothing is changing on
conceptual level for ages like the old
Chinese and the Greek and everyone had a
chair
and now you’re sitting on a chair as
well but the chair is different it looks
different the appearance of the chair is
different because we thought hey this
chair would be handy to make it like
this but something completely different
being in love in the past on conceptual
level was about the same as at this
moment but as we can show it the
appearance of being in love for instance
or being religious or whatever that’s
completely different all the time so
what do we have to do to predict the
future understand what kind of
conceptual thing we’re describing or
looking for like mobility and then say
hey what will be the next appearance of
something like mobility or as you can
see here a store shopping an ancient
sword and then on the other side a more
mother and store for a couple of years
ago it’s in a subway station in South
Korea where’s just a poster and you can
use your QR codes to do some shopping in
the mean time we already have the next
appearance which is on our phone of
course and the very next is by on the
fly that you just point your phone to an
object and say hey LM I’d like that
give me some shops where I can get it
and pros pricing and stuff like that
so if you want to predict something look
for the next appearance of a certain
concept we’re almost there I think if
you think in structures and interests
and I mean interest by what people want
to do or have to do because of their
profession or someone is prime minister
or working for the Union or mayor or
your boss or your wife or whatever you
can predict what someone would say if
you would ask them so you don’t have to
ask them cuz you already know what they
would say now if you want to predict
this future you’re not asking one person
in your mind but you get this overview
of the entire playing field that’s why
all the puppets are
down there and if you know this field of
forces you can sort of feel in which way
something will develop like traffic jams
and on islands where there’s an economic
upturn at this moment well of course
there’s more traffic jam so it will be a
serious problem
politics will say something about it and
there will be taken measures what kind
of measures well yeah we can make
broader roads or whatsoever or we can
start flying or whatever and then you
start searching on conceptual level for
mobility like hey what will be the next
appearance of mobility for instance the
last one it’s a so called to do method
you can look it up on the web and it is
based on this matrix like a trend is
just a change that takes a long time so
you can invest on it and you can take
decisions and you combine this with the
other three tools so you can see for
inspiration look to the outside world
outside of your company outside of your
school outside of your family life
whatever what is changing has been
changing a couple years ago changing at
this moment in the near future what can
you expect and then next to these
changes these trends you describe your
opportunities it’s like a SWOT analysis
it like a strong weekend and stuff like
that describing your organization for
instance and then you can compare the
trends of the changes with the
opportunities what are you able to do
what might be done and that’s what the
deliverers come in which are actually
innovations process innovations most
important of all and product innovations
and service innovations most made
mistake is that people say hey I observe
a trench for the future and translate it
directly into some kind of innovation
doesn’t know how the world works and
there’s a lot of trends and they gotta
be cooperated and
together with the opportunities what are
you able to do what is your study
background for instance or what is the
knowledge within your organization
therefore you can create innovations on
process level product level and service
level the last one is not that important
like objectives it’s more like
prioritizing what’s for short-term and
what is for the longer-term so I
challenge you start designing your
future by first observing it use the
tools you can find a lot of
documentation on it and it has been used
already by many organizations it’s a
sort of thin method because it’s not the
method what works it’s the people who
use the method who make it work so I
challenge you and I will challenge you
actually in a few minutes so start it up
up there and the last thought for me for
closing down I think next to history
class on primary secondary school we
should start with something like future
class thank you so much and I hope to
see you in the future
[Applause]
after a couple of minutes can actually
predict the future in a very serious way
so we need some tools I brought four
tools with you and I brought a list of
people that inspired me and hopefully
also inspired you and you already saw
bubbles he’s just one of them but first
of all well the problem is of course in
school time we everyone has been told
you cannot predict the future we need a
timer by the way and the problem is that
it actually can be done the future is
actually already here if you look to
certain signals because the future is
built of what we are and what we’re
doing right now but the problem is how
to see it how to observe what is
actually happening and there’s
Distortion there’s a lot of distortion
by giving a vision a objective vision on
the future and well the most problematic
distortion comes from politicians like
this interview it was in 2007 for Forbes
magazine and they asked me what one
thing you were sure would happen but
didn’t 2007 already just ten years ago
and my answer was the climate change
would be taken seriously by governments
and there’s an entire story behind that
you can look it up but actually when
when the signals were there for climate
change on what level we were not sure
about but that didn’t happen that much
at all if an Al Gore was active and
people like that but still it didn’t
happen large corporations just a
marketing level on doing some
interesting things on sustainability so
there’s the problem how can we filter
other’s political engagements and
objective observations well let me tell
you if you look through the future you
got to be realistic and
realize what is actually not changing
because most things in our life and
generations before us did not change
I’ll come back to that later and you
have to take care of your sourcing where
do you get your information well on the
internet of course but as you might know
at this moment we live in this
information bubble everyone has his own
information bubble up based on your age
religion political ideas and so on and
the Facebook’s and the googles and all
the companies give you your perfect
information bubble to make you sort of
happy but it’s not what we want to see
because we want to have signals to
detect what’s going to happen in the
future so you got to have a broad list
of different sources unusual sources
like comic strips cabaret whatever
everything that’s happening commercials
that give us a sort of view into the
future even scientific books or science
fiction everything what was thought by
was was made up by people later on on
certain moment became reality
unlike flying cars described already in
the 40s and the 50s of the last century
at this moment there’s pelvis Dutch
fly-in car is commercialized it’s
available now but it took decades to
prepare it and now it is available and
what we will see police can use it and
maybe we can fly as well within a couple
of years so the problem apparently is
the timing everything we can imagine is
going to happen sometime but we want to
know when because we want to invest on
it we want to make decisions for
choosing a study or a profession or
whatsoever so we have to look for this
timing problem and as I said predicting
the future is easy if you know how to do
it I’m gonna explain it to you but I got
a few examples let me introduce you five
friends as a set thing but they all
passed away and then I was privileged to
work with all of them
and this is Alvin Toffler I presume most
of you do know this man you work with
this wife Heidi like I do with my wife
Lika on searching on the future doing
scientific work calculate it you can
calculate for the future as well
and well as he said the future always
arrives too fast and in the wrong order
there’s a problem to deal with
but he also wrote this book called the
future shock back in the 70s and he
described the current society in fact
the people should manage huge amounts of
information and signs and signals and
well the brain got to get used to it and
most of us can deal with that but some
of us cannot deal with it that are it’s
sort of overwhelming for them so it was
quite timely seen back in the 70s that
were going this way how could he do that
because he understood what computers
were doing at that time I remember the
70s huge computers like the PC wasn’t
invented yet the ARPANET a– the
predecessor of the internet was already
in place but in the beginning just
connecting for a computer system with
each other so it’s not what we know
right now but he could calculate and
understand how fast it could grow and
what this would mean with data
information knowledge wisdom to us as a
user and maybe this name doesn’t give
you doesn’t ring you a bell to you diced
Janowski it’s Dutch and well as you can
see this is the the file just cannot a
puppet show long long ago he well he was
TV producer I made this up but he was a
sort of multicultural a multi-talented
guy he was jazz musician and scientists
as well on i.t and for instance he was
working later on on a system called the
aqua browser and the idea of an aqua
so called self announcing information
like there is something in a computer
like I spoken before today like there’s
a huge amount of medical information and
we want to do something with it okay we
create something like this information
when it becomes relevant to me as a user
it sort of says hey I’m here
start using me or connecting me to other
sources of information that’s what we
like and that’s what he created
it’s an aqua browser and it’s made for
closed information systems so that’s why
we don’t see it yet on the internet for
instance you have to recalculate all the
information which is available which you
can do with a library for instance so it
was very quick and once I worked with
him and he told me any 80s he said you
know what we got TV right now but in the
meantime just a couple of years ago
later on almost everything will be
canned and record it before it will be
broadcasted and there’s another thing
sports sports events and news okay there
will be broadcasted life but there will
be live streaming worldwide over the
Internet and now we know he meant things
like Netflix and Spotify and he said
well that’s gonna change the business
models of all the broadcasters and they
don’t recognize it in the beginning well
as you can see right now with the RTL
SBS and other broadcasters they start
recognizing that the money of the
advertisers is going to just a couple of
large companies working on live
streaming and as you have seen that like
Netflix for instance they’re just
raising the subscription pricing so it’s
a quite an interesting model but
completely changing the way we do use
media this is March or Accra natesan and
also living in a tunnel ins an arctic
explorer but also a climate scientist
architect originally in fact very clever
and long ago he explained to me hey when
the ice is
melting on the north pole the collar be
it goes from wet has heard from White’s
tube-like
and we will have a problem because when
it becomes darker but the melting goes
faster and faster and AIDS is sort of
exponential and unfortunately on one of
his trips the last one of course he
didn’t make it so he really died over
there and well it was maybe symbolic but
it was quite tough of course but all the
work that he left at the the most
important thing that he did he took
expeditions to the North Pole and put
all kind of sensors and actors measuring
the climate and the ice and and stuff
like that
very bright figure and check out all
these figures on the internet because
there’s a ton of information and nice
projects from them available this is
pretty terraria and gt3-r was sort of
Inspector Gadget who knows fifties are
by the way because it’s a generation
thing if notice once I was working with
him with at the University of Delft and
he he explained that well he had of
course he lived in the time there was no
microwave and stuff like that and he
explained how everything went so fast
that he couldn’t even catch it up and
that he couldn’t explain it to the
people surrounding him because he saw
all the different gadgets and new
consumer electronics but most people
just su saw just a few things and it
could not connect and because he saw so
many new devices
he could easily detect whether something
was completely new or something old
presented as new by the way the image
here on the background is a phone on his
bicycle it was a fool’s day joke and he
invited the Dutch people hey do you want
to have this bike with a phone write me
a postcard and you can join in and a lot
of people did he had some humor as well
well what goes
was prepared as well a my talk but
fortunately we could show the entire
video on time
and gravity and act being honest it took
me five times to completely understand
the video and he explained it to me and
then finally I got to click and his idea
was to write a book about it and then
come that far but there are some people
thinking about it to sort of well
recreated and and look what we could do
with this information to breathe to the
world well I started my talk with
promising you that you could predict the
future so we got to work I got four
tools for you and two rules of thumb and
but we start with the future funnel
because what I noticed I started back in
89 I noticed to predict something in the
far future is way more easy than
predicting something for next year or
within two years like predicting the
anchoring Society will peak around
something like 2035 37 by about but in
fact because I’m taking this long term
prediction it doesn’t matter exactly
when it will be as long as I know all
it’s something about it because there
might something happen
migration emigration whatever that may
be a volcano might burst out in in
Germany there’s a volcano at cheer that
could calculate it could be active in
the decays ago we’ll see hopefully not
of course so first start predicting far
away and then bring it back to the years
to come
that’s often used I like you’re
sketching then the trends and then bring
it back to strategy for an organization
or your personal ideas that’s number one
there’s the first law what I call and
well be aware whether you you can agree
on it I think nothing is changing on
conceptual level for ages like the old
Chinese and the Greek and everyone had a
chair
and now you’re sitting on a chair as
well but the chair is different it looks
different the appearance of the chair is
different because we thought hey this
chair would be handy to make it like
this but something completely different
being in love in the past on conceptual
level was about the same as at this
moment but as we can show it the
appearance of being in love for instance
or being religious or whatever that’s
completely different all the time so
what do we have to do to predict the
future understand what kind of
conceptual thing we’re describing or
looking for like mobility and then say
hey what will be the next appearance of
something like mobility or as you can
see here a store shopping an ancient
sword and then on the other side a more
mother and store for a couple of years
ago it’s in a subway station in South
Korea where’s just a poster and you can
use your QR codes to do some shopping in
the mean time we already have the next
appearance which is on our phone of
course and the very next is by on the
fly that you just point your phone to an
object and say hey LM I’d like that
give me some shops where I can get it
and pros pricing and stuff like that
so if you want to predict something look
for the next appearance of a certain
concept we’re almost there I think if
you think in structures and interests
and I mean interest by what people want
to do or have to do because of their
profession or someone is prime minister
or working for the Union or mayor or
your boss or your wife or whatever you
can predict what someone would say if
you would ask them so you don’t have to
ask them cuz you already know what they
would say now if you want to predict
this future you’re not asking one person
in your mind but you get this overview
of the entire playing field that’s why
all the puppets are
down there and if you know this field of
forces you can sort of feel in which way
something will develop like traffic jams
and on islands where there’s an economic
upturn at this moment well of course
there’s more traffic jam so it will be a
serious problem
politics will say something about it and
there will be taken measures what kind
of measures well yeah we can make
broader roads or whatsoever or we can
start flying or whatever and then you
start searching on conceptual level for
mobility like hey what will be the next
appearance of mobility for instance the
last one it’s a so called to do method
you can look it up on the web and it is
based on this matrix like a trend is
just a change that takes a long time so
you can invest on it and you can take
decisions and you combine this with the
other three tools so you can see for
inspiration look to the outside world
outside of your company outside of your
school outside of your family life
whatever what is changing has been
changing a couple years ago changing at
this moment in the near future what can
you expect and then next to these
changes these trends you describe your
opportunities it’s like a SWOT analysis
it like a strong weekend and stuff like
that describing your organization for
instance and then you can compare the
trends of the changes with the
opportunities what are you able to do
what might be done and that’s what the
deliverers come in which are actually
innovations process innovations most
important of all and product innovations
and service innovations most made
mistake is that people say hey I observe
a trench for the future and translate it
directly into some kind of innovation
doesn’t know how the world works and
there’s a lot of trends and they gotta
be cooperated and
together with the opportunities what are
you able to do what is your study
background for instance or what is the
knowledge within your organization
therefore you can create innovations on
process level product level and service
level the last one is not that important
like objectives it’s more like
prioritizing what’s for short-term and
what is for the longer-term so I
challenge you start designing your
future by first observing it use the
tools you can find a lot of
documentation on it and it has been used
already by many organizations it’s a
sort of thin method because it’s not the
method what works it’s the people who
use the method who make it work so I
challenge you and I will challenge you
actually in a few minutes so start it up
up there and the last thought for me for
closing down I think next to history
class on primary secondary school we
should start with something like future
class thank you so much and I hope to
see you in the future
[Applause]
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