[Music]
the closest most of us guess to a food
crisis is in the news or perhaps a
request for a donation but right now the
UN is pleading for funds to support the
20 million most in need
out of the 70 million believed to be in
food crisis the UN NGOs and individual
governments will quickly or slowly raise
money buy and distribute aid a simple
plan where and when there are shortages
of food supplies prices move higher
hoarding can start and governments often
then look to restrict trade in food
which is hoarding at a national level
moving prices higher with speculators
joining the cycle extreme weather back
in 2010 reduced world wheat harvests by
five percent now that might sound rather
dull and I may have just introduced the
most boring slide ever seen at TEDx
lizanne but this five percent reduction
in wheat harvests resulted in an 85
percent increase in wheat prices in
under two months the supply and demand
in agriculture can be very finely
balanced now for countries that spend
maybe 40 percent of their income on food
this fine balance can be very dangerous
and however well or badly you think we
are handling food crises now climate
change will make it harder the tragedies
of mass migration and famine often have
climate change as their root cause and
we have an expectation of more and more
dramatic climate events in the future so
what if the numbers facing food crisis
were to double what if it ran to
hundreds of millions of people who could
rule it out and why would we think that
our existing responses to food crisis
would be able to cope
to get ahead of the problem we might
look to develop food reserves they would
need to be raw materials such as wheat
corn vegetable oil proteins and many
countries do maintain some form of food
reserve notably China but also Tanzania
Kenya and others the big problem with
food reserves is the capital cost now
for Switzerland a food reserve to cover
it’s 8 million people would cost a few
billion dollars to fill and if we wanted
to maintain our consumption of cheese
and chocolates
maybe 10 billion dollars more globally a
goal to fill a food reserve to cover
hundreds of millions of people would
cost hundreds of billions of dollars and
managing the reserves would cost
additional billions annually now should
society wish to pursue that path I know
where the money is it’s in your pockets
where we would like it to stay now
storage is not the answer what we need
to find is a global supply chain for
agricultural products not already
destined for food it needs to be
available 12 months of the year ideally
under the control of government so it
could be redirected into emergency aid
it needs to be big enough both to meet
an aid need and be a credible deterrent
against food price speculation and food
hoarding well we have it crop based
biofuel biofuel is made from crops such
as corn soya beans sugarcane and wheat
and these crops are harvested on six
continents and then converted into
biofuel to be blended with both gasoline
and diesel the co2 emissions from
biofuel can be less than half those of
fossil fuel but the crops used to make
biofuel could feed 400 million people
all year round
now some suggest that these biofuel
crops should always be directed to
assist with malnutrition and certainly
malnutrition deserves our continued
attention but it’s tragedy exists as an
issue of poverty not of supply
these crops that are grown for biofuel
simply would not get planted if there is
no biofuel market our governments look
to promote biofuel as they reduce
greenhouse gas emissions increase energy
security and rural employment the
overwhelming majority of all biofuel
used is done so under government
compulsion with structures in place to
monitor compliance so whether oil
companies want to or not
in over 60 countries they are forced to
supply biofuel blend it into both
gasoline and diesel now this makes it
big business and you will buy a fuel
revenues topping 135 billion dollars so
can we find a way in times of crisis to
redirect these crops from biofuel use
into emergency food aid our individual
governments would need the authority to
take over biofuel crop supply contracts
well this sort of power already exists
in the United States the agency FEMA has
the right in times of emergency to
requisition materials from private hands
many other countries have similar
structures what about the cost does it
have to be a cost-free is our favorite
price well the biofuel producers they
don’t really want to sell their crops
for money which is good because we don’t
want to give them any biofuel producers
want to sell biofuel okay
so let’s give them that but not real
biofuel virtual biofuel government
agency is taking in the food crops could
pay for them with virtual biofuel in the
form of credits the biofuel producers
could sell these credits to oil
companies who would gladly buy them
provided they were allowed include them
into their computations of obligated
supply let’s suppose Exxon have the
obligation to supply 300 thousand cubic
meters of biofuel in one particular
country it might meet that
negation to government by supplying
200,000 cubic meters of biofuel and
100,000 cubic meters a virtual biofuel
in the form of credits the revenue from
selling the credits to the oil companies
will keep the biofuel producer intact
agriculture would continue to plant and
harvest as before they’re unaffected oil
companies would likely end up slightly
better off as they get to supply more of
their fossil fuel instead of biofuel
consumers benefit from more stable food
prices as these biofuel crops are in
effect acting like an intervention
buffer into the markets and it should
also lessen hoarding in advance of
climate events which is good news for
people stocking up on alcohol ahead of a
hurricane
so doesn’t need to be an incremental
financial cost on anyone additionally
there’s no challenge to market freedoms
here these biofuel markets were set up
by governments they’re managed by
governments they are ours to control the
real cost is going to be temporarily
higher greenhouse gas emissions from
lower biofuel use during the operation
of the program however okay there is a
however there’s always a catch
speculators would lose out on the
opportunity to profit from food crisis
how sorry should we feel maybe somebody
could start an online fundraising
campaign to help speculators out now
bringing transparency to motivations
will reduce speculators opposition
because nobody is going to openly
declare themselves as wanting to profit
from food prices the agency’s taking in
the food crops would be free to sell
them and utilize the funds or use the
aid directly it might not match for
example if the geography of supply and
demand were in different places or if
there was a requirement to access
additional proteins
if the crop bill based biofuel industry
didn’t exist for its greenhouse gas
savings we would surely now create it
for the safety net that it provides to
global food supplies what now well the
government structures that would be
required are in place what’s needed is a
will to act for two years I’ve been
discussing this idea with biofuel
producers and my goal today is to bring
this initiative into the public domain
and our hope and our aim is to develop a
functioning system why olders still time
let’s skip forward to a point in the
future of add point a point where a
combination of destructive climate
events have all occurred at the same
moment sadly it’s not so difficult to
imagine suppose 200 million people have
been displaced and in addition to the
human cost the region’s affected are
plunged into economic crisis let me give
you two alternative scenarios first the
status quo the UN puts out a call to
raise 50 billion dollars in emergency
aid but given the unprecedented nature
of the crisis many donor countries are
somewhat preoccupied with their domestic
situations food prices rise double
double again and the UN raises its call
looking for a hundred billion dollars in
aid what would happen next I hope we
never find out
alternatively the moment the same series
of devastating climate events occurs the
UN head of humanitarian aid invites a
suspension of global biofuel markets
across the world from the United States
to Europe to South America to Indonesia
to Japan by a few markets are suspended
a total of 50 billion dollars worth of
food crops are exchanged for virtual
biofuel in the form of credits and the
aid flows food prices don’t spike
hoarding doesn’t take place
the focus of attention is not on raising
money but on dealing with the crisis
thank you
[Applause]
the closest most of us guess to a food
crisis is in the news or perhaps a
request for a donation but right now the
UN is pleading for funds to support the
20 million most in need
out of the 70 million believed to be in
food crisis the UN NGOs and individual
governments will quickly or slowly raise
money buy and distribute aid a simple
plan where and when there are shortages
of food supplies prices move higher
hoarding can start and governments often
then look to restrict trade in food
which is hoarding at a national level
moving prices higher with speculators
joining the cycle extreme weather back
in 2010 reduced world wheat harvests by
five percent now that might sound rather
dull and I may have just introduced the
most boring slide ever seen at TEDx
lizanne but this five percent reduction
in wheat harvests resulted in an 85
percent increase in wheat prices in
under two months the supply and demand
in agriculture can be very finely
balanced now for countries that spend
maybe 40 percent of their income on food
this fine balance can be very dangerous
and however well or badly you think we
are handling food crises now climate
change will make it harder the tragedies
of mass migration and famine often have
climate change as their root cause and
we have an expectation of more and more
dramatic climate events in the future so
what if the numbers facing food crisis
were to double what if it ran to
hundreds of millions of people who could
rule it out and why would we think that
our existing responses to food crisis
would be able to cope
to get ahead of the problem we might
look to develop food reserves they would
need to be raw materials such as wheat
corn vegetable oil proteins and many
countries do maintain some form of food
reserve notably China but also Tanzania
Kenya and others the big problem with
food reserves is the capital cost now
for Switzerland a food reserve to cover
it’s 8 million people would cost a few
billion dollars to fill and if we wanted
to maintain our consumption of cheese
and chocolates
maybe 10 billion dollars more globally a
goal to fill a food reserve to cover
hundreds of millions of people would
cost hundreds of billions of dollars and
managing the reserves would cost
additional billions annually now should
society wish to pursue that path I know
where the money is it’s in your pockets
where we would like it to stay now
storage is not the answer what we need
to find is a global supply chain for
agricultural products not already
destined for food it needs to be
available 12 months of the year ideally
under the control of government so it
could be redirected into emergency aid
it needs to be big enough both to meet
an aid need and be a credible deterrent
against food price speculation and food
hoarding well we have it crop based
biofuel biofuel is made from crops such
as corn soya beans sugarcane and wheat
and these crops are harvested on six
continents and then converted into
biofuel to be blended with both gasoline
and diesel the co2 emissions from
biofuel can be less than half those of
fossil fuel but the crops used to make
biofuel could feed 400 million people
all year round
now some suggest that these biofuel
crops should always be directed to
assist with malnutrition and certainly
malnutrition deserves our continued
attention but it’s tragedy exists as an
issue of poverty not of supply
these crops that are grown for biofuel
simply would not get planted if there is
no biofuel market our governments look
to promote biofuel as they reduce
greenhouse gas emissions increase energy
security and rural employment the
overwhelming majority of all biofuel
used is done so under government
compulsion with structures in place to
monitor compliance so whether oil
companies want to or not
in over 60 countries they are forced to
supply biofuel blend it into both
gasoline and diesel now this makes it
big business and you will buy a fuel
revenues topping 135 billion dollars so
can we find a way in times of crisis to
redirect these crops from biofuel use
into emergency food aid our individual
governments would need the authority to
take over biofuel crop supply contracts
well this sort of power already exists
in the United States the agency FEMA has
the right in times of emergency to
requisition materials from private hands
many other countries have similar
structures what about the cost does it
have to be a cost-free is our favorite
price well the biofuel producers they
don’t really want to sell their crops
for money which is good because we don’t
want to give them any biofuel producers
want to sell biofuel okay
so let’s give them that but not real
biofuel virtual biofuel government
agency is taking in the food crops could
pay for them with virtual biofuel in the
form of credits the biofuel producers
could sell these credits to oil
companies who would gladly buy them
provided they were allowed include them
into their computations of obligated
supply let’s suppose Exxon have the
obligation to supply 300 thousand cubic
meters of biofuel in one particular
country it might meet that
negation to government by supplying
200,000 cubic meters of biofuel and
100,000 cubic meters a virtual biofuel
in the form of credits the revenue from
selling the credits to the oil companies
will keep the biofuel producer intact
agriculture would continue to plant and
harvest as before they’re unaffected oil
companies would likely end up slightly
better off as they get to supply more of
their fossil fuel instead of biofuel
consumers benefit from more stable food
prices as these biofuel crops are in
effect acting like an intervention
buffer into the markets and it should
also lessen hoarding in advance of
climate events which is good news for
people stocking up on alcohol ahead of a
hurricane
so doesn’t need to be an incremental
financial cost on anyone additionally
there’s no challenge to market freedoms
here these biofuel markets were set up
by governments they’re managed by
governments they are ours to control the
real cost is going to be temporarily
higher greenhouse gas emissions from
lower biofuel use during the operation
of the program however okay there is a
however there’s always a catch
speculators would lose out on the
opportunity to profit from food crisis
how sorry should we feel maybe somebody
could start an online fundraising
campaign to help speculators out now
bringing transparency to motivations
will reduce speculators opposition
because nobody is going to openly
declare themselves as wanting to profit
from food prices the agency’s taking in
the food crops would be free to sell
them and utilize the funds or use the
aid directly it might not match for
example if the geography of supply and
demand were in different places or if
there was a requirement to access
additional proteins
if the crop bill based biofuel industry
didn’t exist for its greenhouse gas
savings we would surely now create it
for the safety net that it provides to
global food supplies what now well the
government structures that would be
required are in place what’s needed is a
will to act for two years I’ve been
discussing this idea with biofuel
producers and my goal today is to bring
this initiative into the public domain
and our hope and our aim is to develop a
functioning system why olders still time
let’s skip forward to a point in the
future of add point a point where a
combination of destructive climate
events have all occurred at the same
moment sadly it’s not so difficult to
imagine suppose 200 million people have
been displaced and in addition to the
human cost the region’s affected are
plunged into economic crisis let me give
you two alternative scenarios first the
status quo the UN puts out a call to
raise 50 billion dollars in emergency
aid but given the unprecedented nature
of the crisis many donor countries are
somewhat preoccupied with their domestic
situations food prices rise double
double again and the UN raises its call
looking for a hundred billion dollars in
aid what would happen next I hope we
never find out
alternatively the moment the same series
of devastating climate events occurs the
UN head of humanitarian aid invites a
suspension of global biofuel markets
across the world from the United States
to Europe to South America to Indonesia
to Japan by a few markets are suspended
a total of 50 billion dollars worth of
food crops are exchanged for virtual
biofuel in the form of credits and the
aid flows food prices don’t spike
hoarding doesn’t take place
the focus of attention is not on raising
money but on dealing with the crisis
thank you
[Applause]
Please follow and like us: