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Are You Smarter Than Your Technology? | Pat Scannell | TEDxAshburnSalon


are you smarter than your technology I
think it’s actually a key question for
our generation and I’m gonna tackle it
head-on
are you smarter than your technology
probably not and if so not for long
thank you very much so
Nick’s telling me to stretch this out a
little bit I do have an appendix with
some supporting slides be helpful to
understand kind of how I’m approaching
this problem I’m a technologist and for
the last 25 years
I get paid to help many of the world’s
most advanced companies and
organizations strategize develop adopt
and commercialize new technology but
several years ago I like many of you
probably begin to notice that these new
technologies are changing the way that
we live so I set out to study the
cumulative effect of technology on us
particularly on how we think and I’ve
had a chance over the last few years to
work with experts from dozens of fields
from all over the world they’re all
smarter than I am this work will be
published in a series of books that
looks at how technology has and will
affect us tonight’s appendix has a few
insights from that let’s start with some
basics technology has made us smarter
over the last 100 years IQs gone up as
much as 30 points and that’s been
enabled by technology advances and
things like education health care the
type of information we process and many
of you are probably aware of Moore’s Law
of the fact that computer processing
doubles about every 18 months if you
extrapolate that into the future
most of the technologists that I know
are surprised at how fast technology is
accelerating because we understand
Moore’s law but it’s not just Moore’s
law it’s advanced is not in computer
hardware but also in software called
Nathan’s law and advances in Metcalfe’s
law which are network effects and then
advances in the data the total volume of
human knowledge these data centers
around us here in Northern Virginia are
not empty they’re full of data that
informs real-time predictive
world that we live in and then another
factor influencing how fast technology
is advanced is revolutions in computer
architecture you’re all probably
familiar with cloud architecture
well that’s migrating to hyper scale and
what’s after that all of these forces
have worked together to create an
astronomical advance in the pace of
technology now I’m an optimist
I think cognition is gonna follow so
this is a happy story this is a positive
story but the thing is is the forces
that govern technology in the past
social business and political are gonna
struggle to keep up now one shot one
opportunity this has never happened
before in human history where technology
surpasses humans ability to think I
think we’re there now and I think as we
look at the technology what it’s going
to be governed by you have to ask
yourself what’s the plan what’s the
roadmap when I say smarter in technology
these are vague ambiguous terms and
depending on your specialty they mean
different things to you so let’s start
first with technology let’s start with
something ubiquitous iPhone this is an
iPhone 10 they’re pretty common anybody
here have one yeah
they’re pretty common this one’s my
daughter’s I borrowed it and I promise
I’ll get it right back you you’ve
probably been told that this thing has
more computer processing than the Apollo
space mission it has more computer
processing power than the entire world
had during the moon landings in 1968
maybe more importantly this thing has
more computer processing than the best
supercomputer on the world in 1996 just
22 years ago so what about today’s
supercomputer the best one in the world
today is in China it’s over a quarter of
a billion dollars to build recently it’s
huge this that day works about as fast
as a couple hundred thousand iPhones
working together it’s amazing and the
human brain crushes the supercomputer
one estimate puts it at ten times the
processing power of the world’s best
supercomputer but Moore’s law just using
that in 18 months that will be twice as
powerful and again until by November
2023 there will be a supercomputer on
the world
that is as smart as the average human
and the next year it’ll be even faster
so what about common phones common
technology if you use the past is
prologue here 22 years after that the
phone in your pocket will be as smart as
you are
and the next year it’ll be 50% smarter
than you these are real numbers I think
that they’re actually conservative but
technology is not just a single piece of
hardware the strength of today’s
technology is that it’s a system a
network of networks it all works
together how do we compare that
technology as a whole in the real world
to us today is really hard and experts
are kind of quibble with things but it’s
like kind of comparing a dog and a
calculator they do different things but
let’s simplify it
IBM Watson journal articles that come
out saying Watson can predict and
diagnose serious mental conditions
faster in seconds more accurately than
human experts doing week’s technology
people this came out just last month and
merrymakers internet reports Google
Voice for the first time is surpassed
95% accuracy which is the human accuracy
rate for listening to another person
understanding that it’s the first time
in history or more simply most of us can
relate to we’re all more likely to
listen to our GPS giving directions than
our spouse so technology is a system
compared to the brain and we’ve heard
this story before
any expert you talk to will start
talking about how we had these overblown
stories about how technology will
replace all jobs and this never happened
or maybe we’ve heard wolf too many times
they’ll talked about how farming was 90%
of the jobs decades ago and now it’s 2%
but most of the telephone operator jobs
are gone many of the manufacturing jobs
25% to 11% recently in the last few
decades and yet we’re at an all-time
unemployment rate in real wages are
rising
this is a great big myth that technology
is going to replace us so I’m probably
wrong but I think this time is different
I think we are going to be replaced by
technology and of course there’s going
to be new jobs that’s the argument but
the jobs in which a person can do better
cheaper than technology are gonna be
fewer and fewer the reason we have
rising real-world wages today is not
that they’re rising for everybody
they’re rising for a select few skilled
people unskilled workers are still kind
of treading along in the future we all
might be unskilled workers what does
that mean for us for the way we live for
how we’re gonna have to think the kind
of jobs we’re going to do that brings us
back to the question are we smarter than
our technology so I think a related
question is what would you do today at
this one point in time that’s very
unique if you knew this I think that the
solution is to optimize to work with
smarter technologies to leave humanity
better on sometimes people say oh you’re
trying to dictate what technology is
good for people and what it’s not no
it’s up to people to decide for
themselves but in general if you ask
people what they want out of life you
get some common answers they want good
health safety relative welfare and the
opposite of that is kind of our
experience with technology today but let
me talk about the experience with
technology today for just a second how
is the world today if you look at the
numbers mortality of child infant adult
has plummeted adult life expectancy
stable throughout thousands of years of
human existence has doubled in just the
last century we’ve cured polio FOID
serious illnesses that were words that
struck terror in the heart of our
grandparents technology has done so much
for us and yet violent crime is declined
by any measure I believe this is the
best time ever to be on this
planet maybe we’ve got this thing
figured out maybe technology has really
worked out well for us but I have this
weird habit at parties and I’m sorry if
I’ve done this to any of you saying do
you think the world is better now than
it was twenty-five fifty or a hundred
years ago and this is just anecdotal but
you know what people tell me it’s worse
and the younger the person I talked to
this stronger they feel how can this be
the flip side of the coin of the
previous slide was that while life is
really good the information we get about
the world is inaccurate five hours a day
of television and what are we seeing
we’re seeing breaking news about gang
rapes and school shootings and sexual
harassment but I don’t care if it
happened in India it shows up as
breaking news immediately to us in
real-time or overwhelmed with the bad
stories in real-time in meantime we’re
overlooking all the good things that
happen to us every day around us we
don’t see that so when we turn from TV
news to fiction for entertainment the
storylines bleed over so you can’t tell
them apart the world we the picture we
get of the world is it’s a dark danger
some conflicted place
no wonder despite the fact that this is
the best time for us to be alive that
75% of American men are overweight or
obese Q’s sucking in my belly and most
women – and we have lifestyle diseases
that we all know about right diabetes
and high blood pressure
these are serious consequences best time
to be alive the way we look at the world
causes us to get stressed so we relieve
that stress by going to social media 2
hours a day where you learn that your
life is not as good as everybody else’s
and coincident with that is rising rates
of mental illnesses and depression and
and other problems the problem is we’ve
got these two conflicting pictures and
no one’s putting the picture together
why not
I googled are you smarter than your
technology as a preparation for this you
know how many hits I found on the big
internet for
quote determine is a quoted term are you
smarter than your technology but as a
quoted term I search for Kim
Kardashian’s butt any guesses a hundred
thousand a hundred thousand why are
experts not looking at this big picture
because it’s so darn complex these days
and our jobs as skilled workers were not
rewarded for solving big broad complex
problems where we were rewarded for
going deep on a specific facet we’re
talking about how texting while driving
is bad for you or talking about screen
time or dopamine this isn’t about humane
technology this is about the big picture
the very fabric of human thought is
changing and I don’t believe that this
is being talked about so what I think we
roadmap my simple view of this is this
chart right here where on the one side
you have indiscriminate technology use
so on the left side you have intentional
technology consumption and leaving us
better off at the top worse off at the
bottom I think today world digital
Clutton we consume a bunch of technology
without really a plan and it kind of
leaves us worse off and that’s okay
this is all new we’re trying to figure
it out we can’t be blamed for that along
the way by the way I acknowledge that
there’s some people who or what I would
call accidental innovators there’s no
common roadmap for how to use technology
we know what to eat we know what
different foods do to our body even if
we choose not to do them keep sucking in
my belly again but at least there’s a
roadmap there on technology that’s not
so we all know some people who are doing
different things that’s working out
pretty good for them they’re not
depressed or not overweight they’re
using technology they’re accidental
innovators but that plan isn’t broadly
prescribed what is broadly prescribed if
you talk to the experts you talk about
dopamine and screentime and unplugging
and wellness 2.0 is just that unplug
that’s the answer
yoga sleep better eat better exercise
and they’re right that makes a lot of
sense I grew a group of people that do
that and they’re what I call digital
Spartans they don’t do social media they
don’t do television they don’t get any
of my Caddyshack jokes
this group I’m thinking of specifically
by name they all have PhD is a couple of
them multiple and they do complex deep
work Digital Spartans but I think
they’re missing out
how can having a supercomputer in your
back pocket all that technology I was
talking about not help you doing complex
deep work so I don’t think unplugging is
the answer I just think that it’s a a
solution that mitigates some of the
problems associated with indiscriminate
technology use what I think the solution
will be is being intentional consumers I
think that there’ll be emergent
behaviors that we all adopt in the
future that allow that cognition curb to
go up but we’re missing that roadmap now
I’m not a Pollyanna here I know that
even if we have that there’s going to be
people who decide to be digital buttons
fine I just want them to have a chance
to know what’s good for them and not and
I think that we’re also gonna have some
roadkill along the way that’s just the
nature of major transitions and this is
about is a big change as we’ve ever had
in human history so this is my simple
view but I’m not thinking about hacking
your brain I’m kind of tired of people
talking about hacking your brain hacking
is what you do to something that’s
complex that you don’t control and
pretty much don’t understand it’s when
you go into your car and you hack it to
get better gas mileage you may get
better gas mileage but you may cause a
lot of other problems I hacked you guys
or certainly the people that twelve
people who will see this on YouTube when
I call this the world’s shortest TED
talk hacking is not the answer we
control the brains we may not understand
them right now
different people understand different
facets but we’re not talking about
hacking the brain I think that that’s a
short-term solution that’s like being on
a railway platform jumping onto a moving
train what we really need is something
the comprehensive proactive that speeds
us up to get onto that train hacking I
understand sleeping and yoga and hacking
in the brain that that’s that’ll get us
by I get it this is hard confusing stuff
I go upstairs at 9:30 every night my
daughters are doing homework and they’re
doing homework
music is playing there we’ve got
FaceTime I’d call the applications two
wrong things like MySpace so maybe it’s
not even FaceTime but the video
conferencing with their friends be they
sharing with their friends and playing
fortnight I think I understand this
stuff I know all the literature on
screen time dopamine multitasking and I
know that this isn’t good for them I
know if my parent ever saw me that Matt
turn off the TV go downstairs do your
homework then go to bed I could not do
the work I’m doing now if I grew up the
way they did now but what if the world
that they’re going to grow up in is
going to require a different brain than
that I have I’m not saying that that’s
the case but my professional experience
leads me to believe that it is what if
the experience that they’re doing right
now is exactly the kind of immersive
technology experience that’s going to
allow them to be successful in the
future the problem is is we don’t know
and that’s not good enough for me that’s
not enough for me to go upstairs and say
turn that off go downstairs do these
things
because I don’t know I’ve been setting
this for three years I don’t think that
that’s the right plan to tell him to
turn it off unfortunately we’re just
gonna have to see how the movie ends
here’s a framework to understand this in
a big picture three hundred years ago
the key to influence was land a hundred
years ago the key to influence and power
was money with which you could buy land
factories tools employ people I think in
the very near future the key to power
will be the ability to interact
effectively with technology I don’t
think we’re there yet as judged by how I
think we’re doing in terms of our
smartness with technology I think that
that’s what’s coming soon and that’s
good news
this is not a bad news story the climb
is gonna change we’re all gonna die
unless we do something dramatic this is
an opportunity to harness all this
technology so this is a good news story
so what a bunch of us are working
together to create a consortium of
experts from these different disciplines
to work together and that’s what’s
needed you need people who speak
different languages looking at the
problem but you don’t need a bunch of
experts someplace to put together
map and ship it down to you you’re smart
I think you’re here you’re not watching
television maybe you’re watching this on
television pay attention to what you pay
attention to begin to think about what
you’re going to need to do in the future
begin to think about how you interact
with technology and how that may prepare
you for that future so that’s my
challenge to you go home ask these
questions think about it and then take
an extra step share what you think
put a YouTube on video up or share it on
social media but begin the conversation
challenge those people around you at
work at home because I think that this
is a really pressing question and so I
asked you guys are you smarter than your technology what do you think
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