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Why are time estimates often REALLY wrong? – MPJ’s Musings – FunFunFunction #45


let’s take a hike on the coast from San

Francisco to Los Angeles to visit our

friends in Newport Beach I whip out my

map and draw the route down the coast

that line is 400 miles long and we can

walk four miles per hour for ten hours

per day so that means we’ll be there in

ten days we call our friends and we book

dinner for Sunday night when we will be

rolling in triumphantly at 6:00 p.m.

our friends are so excited to meet us

they can’t wait so we get up next

morning giddy with the excitement of new

adventure strap on our backpacks without

the map and we plan our first day Wow

there are a million little twists and

turns along this coast so we call our

friends and we push dinner back till

Tuesday oh it’s it’s best to be

realistic our friends are disappointed

but they’re looking forward to seeing us

and 12 days of it – from San Francisco

to LA that’s it’s still not too bad with

all that unpleasantness out of the way

we head off but two hours later we are

barely past the soup why well we look

down the trail and we see this man this

is slow going sand water stairs creaks

angry sea lions we are walking at most

two miles per hour that is half as fast

as we wanted we can either start walking

20 hours per day or we can push our

friends out another week after some

debating we decide to split the

difference we walk 12 hours per day

instead of instead of 10 and we push our

friends out until the next weekend we

call our friends and we

push dinner back until the next Sunday

and they they are a little peeved but

they’re ok with it so we push up ah we

pitch camp in most Beach after a tough

12-hour day shit it takes forever to get

these tents up in the wind so we don’t

we don’t get to bed until midnight it’s

not a big deal will I earn things out

and increase velocity tomorrow we

oversleep we wake up sore and exhausted

at 10 a.m. for there is no way that

we’re gonna get our twelve hours in

today we we aim for 10 and we’ll try to

make up for that by making 14 tomorrow

we grab our stuff and we go after a slow

slog for a couple of hours I notice that

my friend is limping oh shit blisters we

need to fix this now because we are the

kind of team that nips problems in the

bud before they slow down or velocity I

jog inland

three miles to Pescadero buy some

band-aids and then I race back to patch

up my friend I’m exhausted

so we we stop for the day after only six

miles that day we go to sleep but on a

positive note we do have fresh supplies

we’ll let us make up for the difference

difference tomorrow we wake up the next

morning ah

we bandage up our feet and we get going

and we turn a corner and disappears shit

what is this the goddamn map doesn’t

show this shit we end up walking like

three miles inland across some federally

protected land and we get lost twice

before we finally make it back to the

coast

today gone for just one mile progress

there is no way that I’m calling our

friends again to push the dinner back

again so we decide to walk until

midnight Wow

what is this does anybody know like I’ve

never seen I have no idea what this is

what could this be used for

after a fitful night of sleep we wake up

and my friend now has headache and a

raging fever I asked him if he can rally

and he says like what do you think

asshole will be we have been walking in

freezing fog for three days without a

break okay so today is a loss we’ll

hunker down and recover tomorrow will

will make up for it by increasing

schedule to 14 hours of walking per day

and that’s okay we’ll be rested and

there’s only gonna be a few more days of

this anyway we can do this we wake up

the next morning groggy and I look at

our map holy shit we’re starting day

five of a ten day trip and we haven’t

even left the Bay Area okay this this is

just ludicrous

let’s let’s sit down and make an

accurate estimate and then call our

friends with it and we’ll probably get

yelled at but at least we’ll have an

accurate estimate once and for all so my

friend says well we’ve gone 40 miles in

four days

and it is at least a six hundred mile

trip

so let’s say 60 days 70 to be sure and

ice no no fucking way yes yes I’ve never

done this trip before but I know I know

it can’t possibly take 60 days to walk

from San Francisco to Los Angeles our

friends are going to do

for us if we say that we we won’t see

them until Easter if you can commit to

16 hours a day we can make up for the

difference it will be hard but this is

crunch time yes we have to suck it up

and my friend yells back I’m I’m not the

one who told our friends we’ll make it

by Sunday in the first place

you’re killing me because you made a

mistake a tense silence falls between us

the phone call to our friends it goes on

made I’ll make the call tomorrow one sir

once my comrade has you know regained

his senses a bit and is willing to

commit to something something reasonable

the next morning we stay in our tents

fill the rain storm blows over we pack

our stuff and shuffle off at 10 a.m.

nursing sore muscles and blisters we

don’t talk about the fight from last

night but I snap my period friend when

he leaves his water bottle behind so

that we have to backtrack or 30 minutes

in order to go get it as we pack up our

gear I notice that we are out of toilet

paper

and we need to stack up on that the next

town we hit and we we turn a corner and

we see that a raging river is blocks our

path and I sense a massive massive pout

the end that was a little story written

as a Korra answer by a person called

Michael Wolfe that I like a lot there is

a link in the supply on my camera there

is a link in the episode description to

the original answer where you can also

find Michael and follow him you have

just watched an episode of fun fun

function this is a programming show that

I released one new episode every Monday

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episode you might want to check out the

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I am mpj until next Monday morning take you

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