so listen if you turn on a news if
you’re following any experts on Twitter
if you’re reading any news sites that
you’re going through everyone’s trying
to predict the next big market crash
economic collapse financial crisis and
everybody’s worried because fear sells
eyeballs everybody studying this stuff
so today I have two outcomes with this
video for you one is for your day-to-day
conversations with people that you’re
doing business with to know to have an
educated conversation with them about
the subject the second outcome of this
video is for you don’t know how to pivot
with your own finances and prepare
yourself both offensively and
defensively on what to do with the next
market crash so four things are gonna be
covered one is the cause of a market
crash two definitions three history and
four how to prepare for the next market
crash by the way before I get into
explaining everything one of the facts
I’m gonna share with you in this video
that want you to be thinking about and
answer it and see if you can get the
answer since 1926
till today 1926 till today
that’s roughly 90 something years of the
market 92 years of the market how many
years do you think markets been into
positive out of those 90 something years
ninety two years how many years has the
market been in the positive like I want
you to say
22% 43% 68% what do you think it is I’m
gonna answer down a few minutes before I
get into sobbing said that let’s start
off with definitions first number one
everybody drops this word about crash
correction bear market what does it
really mean a market correction is when
a market tanks by 10 percent a bear
market is 20 percent and a crash is when
the market tanks 35 to 60 percent that
lasts three to six months when that
happens that’s a crash so now a lot of
these words you hear about correction
bear market crashed it’s also you hear a
lot of people say recession and some
channels are even talking about
depression we need to always know the
difference between recession and
depression recession is when a market
economic decline six straight months or
higher if it lasts for six months or
higher then we’re in recession a
depression is when the market is in
recession for two plus years and the GDP
of the country drops by 10% when that
happens we’re experiencing a depression
so if anybody drops that word you got to
be able to say wait a minute depression
is you know we’re talking about two
years and we’re talking ten percent GDP
that’s very unlikely I’ll give you the
history of what that really means when
it comes down to the numbers but the
part that you really have to worry about
and this is the part that no expert can
explain to you on what could happen is
the one word you hear it’s called Black
Swan people will say oh we may have a
Black Swan a Black Swan may happen a
Black Swan way this words being dropped
so what is a Black Swan a Black Swan is
something difficult to predict would
massive massive economic consequences so
we can’t predict a Black Swan a 9/11
could be a Black Swan a thing that even
if you watch the movie big short and
they could be able to predict it based
on all the neg and loans that people
weren’t making their payments on their
mortgage payment that’s not a Black Swan
because that one the experts could
predict it’s something we cannot predict
that’s something we always have to worry
about that’s not what this video is
about this video is about things that
you and I can’t predict and things that
we can watch and see trends SEO can kind
of see what’s going on here I have to
worry about these three things I can’t
do anything about these four different
things so now that’s definitions so now
that we’ve covered some of the
terminology whether what’s a correction
bear market you know a crash or
recession the depression of Black Swan
let’s talk a little bit about history
and facts you can kind of get an idea
about some of the trends that are taking
place earlier I asked you questions
since 1926 till today roughly 92 years
what percentage of the time the markets
been on the up what percentage of the
time each given year has been on the
what was your answer I’m so curious by
the way I would like you to post your
answer below comment before I even say
it and after I give you the answer I
want you to tell me if you’re
shell-shocked by the answer ready here’s
what the answer is 74% at a time the
markets been up 74 percent of the time
the markets been up what does this mean
to you listen every one of these experts
that write books and once they write a
book and they say 15 years from now the
markets gonna collapse and it’s going to
be terrible it’s gonna be Armageddon
that book sells for fifteen years until
people really realize that guy didn’t
know what he was talking about and into
our people that say the markets gonna
blow up the next seven years
you should go in guy named Harry dent
wrote a book everybody was like oh my
gosh we’re gonna be billionaires
everybody’s gonna be a billionaire
listen if everyone’s gonna be a
billionaire that’s an absolute hype they
shouldn’t be paying attention to right
if everyone’s gonna become millionaires
or make a lot of money it just doesn’t
work out that way right so here 74
percent which means what no matter how
bad things are in the next 20 years 15
years are gonna be positive
give or take if we do what we’ve done
the last 92 years that’s something for
you to be paying attention to so let’s
go a little bit deeper let’s look at a
little bit of history every time we’ve
had a recession how long has it taken us
to recover how big has the drop in and
how long did it last and last but not
least how much did the GDP of America
actually drop up let’s look at this May
of 1946 we had a recession it lasted 36
months the SMP dropped 30% during that
36 months after the drop off 15 months
it took us to recover 15 months and
during that period the GDP dropped
roughly 1.7 percent remember it has to
drop by more than ten percent to be a
depression remember that and that
doesn’t count as a recession that’s why
it’s only depression August 1956
15-month raishin mark you drop 22
recovered 11 months GDP look at that
three point seven percent that’s bigger
GDP even though was smaller December 61
duration only six months minus 28
recovery 14 months one point six percent
nineteen sixty-six duration a to drop 20
to recover seven months point six
percent roughly the same the next year
let’s come a little bit to now let’s go
1990 2000 July of 1990 three months
minus 20% five months recovery one point
four percent
March of two thousand thirty one months
minus forty nine percent fifty five
months to recover 0.3% we would had a
GDP didn’t change in an October of 2007
the most recent one we experienced
seventeen months minus 57 percent 65
months to recover and even that was five
point one percent GDP which by the way
if you think about it five point one is
a very big number
in today’s economy we almost got to a
depression just ten years ago but we
have to get above 10% you kind of see
what’s going on here here’s the point
though when you look at these numbers
everybody looks and says well but the
market dropped and what about this and
what about that here’s one data to be
thinking about I don’t want you to make
an emotional decision this is not an
emotional oh my gosh better worry from
1997 till today
1997 till today say roughly 4,000 days
each years 365 days times 11 years from
1997 till today if you would have taken
your money out and would have missed on
the 50 best days from 1997 till today
your portfolio would have been 60
percent less if you would have missed
out on the best 50 days what does this
mean this is not necessarily a message
to those about 55 years old because it
has to do with your age and your risk
tolerance this has to do with the person
that’s watching this that’s 29 31 years
old you are not necessarily going to be
that affected by a market crash if it
were to happen on a 20-year period
because if you miss those best days you
are in a way going to be affected by
your networks gonna be affected by so if
you try too much to time it it’ll hit
you so in reality is I’m sharing this
with you to kind of get a better idea on
how long it takes what could happen what
are some of the trends in worst case
scenario how bad has it been can I
handle how bad it’s been if I can I’m
gonna be okay based on my age we’ll talk
a little bit about that in a minute here
let’s talk about now cause of crash what
causes the market to crash number one
take money what is fake money we just
keep having fake money
fake wealth right the next one fake
success people are rich but you know
they’re broke too big difference you
know people look like they have a lot of
money let me tell you like I remember we
had a guy he had 18 properties and yet
equity and all these properties and he
would go around telling everybody is
worth fifteen million dollars and in a
market tank he lost every penny of
equity short sale everything yet to get
rid of he was trying to sell this
property that property this property but
at the peak when everything was looking
good he was on board fifteen million
dollars I’m worth 10 million dollars he
was
it was fake money and a moment we had a
crash he lost it all that went away you
have to be very careful with knowing the
difference between fake money next one
market manipulation happens a lot
some are done by the public some is done
by you know private by the people so
some you and I do it as investors Marc
Marc Amanda pleasure you try to do it
and the other one is that the
government’s doing and we talk about
that here in a minute for geopolitical
terror 9/11 happens we could experience
some like that when it happens again
that’s a Black Swan type of an event it
is geopolitical but it is Black Swan
because it’s unpredictable and it’s
massive consequences it could happen at
any time you can’t control that
number five conflict foreign what am I
talking conflict with foreign trade
tariffs you’re hearing right now with
Trump in China and you know Mexico in
Canada and can we get an agreement all
we’re gonna get it before midterm
election because it’s taking a hit what
are we gonna do here some of those
things takes a hit into the market maybe
not a crash but it can be a hit
number six war wars hurt markets number
seven assassinations you have to know
that’s another thing that sometimes the
market takes a hit when assassination
sample matter if everyone John F Kennedy
I think it’s November 22nd 1963 I think
is November 22nd 1963 when John F
Kennedy was assassinated that day they
shut down the market the next day market
took a hit 2.8 percent
Reagan attempt on assassination the
market tanked 1.2 percent a Nixon
resignation the market tanked 1.3
percent Cuban you know Missile Crisis
market tanked 2.7 percent those are some
of the things that you have to know that
can cause a crash and then the next one
is bubbles when it comes out to crash
you got also know about different kind
of bubbles now what causes a bubble when
bubbles happen we are becoming way too
optimistic a lack of irrational common
sense we lose common sense it’s almost
you know how they say when a person is
in love their brain when they study the
brain it’s as if they’re on drugs when
you start making money consecutively you
become irrational and you lose common
sense because you really start believing
you know what you’re doing and you don’t
but you really start believing oh my
gosh everything’s gonna be fine for me
lack of paranoia unreasonable confidence
bubbles controlled by the government
which I’ll talk about here in a minute
some of the bubbles that we’ve
experienced real estate 2006 we
experienced it Bitcoin a little bit
earlier this year everybody thought they
were going to become millionaires and
billionaires with Bitcoin we realize
after all this a theory and Bitcoin bit
cash you know everything Ripple all
these things that were taking place we
realized a technology solid we may be
going to corrupt old currency I don’t
know if bitcoins worth $50,000 I don’t
know if it’s worth $100,000 some people
say it’s a still it is I may be wrong
but a lot of would have was happening
with bitcoins with signs of a bubble
young people were excited everybody
changed their profiles on their Twitter
account cryptocurrency expert
cryptocurrency expert you’re 17 years
old yeah but I’m a cryptocurrency expert
all of these things are signs of what a
bubble happens right I pure bubble back
in the 90s everybody was going public
raising money everybody was tech boom
credit bubble oh my gosh today school on
1.4 trillion dollars if we start
defaulting on that it’s going to be very
interesting now you got the debt bubble
which we experience a little bit in oh
wait you got some of these investors in
Silicon Valley these new people that are
coming into some money and they’re just
throwing money at startups and these
real P guys that have been around for a
while they’re kind of upset with these
other guys that it’s a very funny thing
going on right now with peas and and
investors going and throwing money at
new startups but that’s all a bubble
right let me spend a little bit of time
talking about bubbles controlled by the
government it’s very important for you
to know this part and I’m gonna try to
say it in the simplest way possible that
makes sense to you because sometimes you
hear words and here’s how we watch the
news or we read the article here’s how
we read let me take some if you’ve ever
done this before
you’ll read an article one of the
challenges that we’re facing today is
quantitative easing and that that depth
that Hammond boom you’re lost you change
the article and the reason why I change
the article is because you don’t know
what quantitative easing means or you
watch somebody use a big water you don’t
know what it means when it comes down to
money
you actually have to pause and search
and find out what that word means to
educate yourself we have to be very
careful with bubbles controlled by the
government for example the federal rates
you know the race that we have currently
right now they keep raising the rates
and the market keeps going down you know
sometimes they lower the rates and they
call it quantitative easing now what is
quantity quantitate
easing we did back in 2008 when the
market collapsed and then all of a
sudden banks became so tight they were
not giving money to small business
owners and the moment the small business
owners no longer getting money to go
grow their businesses economy takes a
hit because job 65% of jobs in America
are created by small business owners we
need these small business owners to be
getting loans to start creating jobs
right so the government’s at the top
saying oh my gosh what do we do let’s
lower the rate and they keep lowering
the rates and they keep lowering the
rate and then all of a sudden the banker
who doesn’t care about the feds lowering
the rates he doesn’t care about the
economy he cares about keeping his job
and the only one person that can fire
him isn’t the customer isn’t a federal
government official it’s his boss that
works at the bank so the more money he
lends and the businesses go out of
business and they lose the money he’s
fired so him the banker sat down and he
said well I know the government gave us
some money and I know the rate is very
low right now it’s zero percent to a
quarter of a percent why don’t we go buy
some Treasury bonds and we get two
percent on that and if we’re paying you
know zero to a quarter but we’re getting
two percent we’re making minimum one
point seven five or maybe two I’m at
least reporting positive numbers who
cares
forget about giving any money to small
business owners and we experienced this
for three four five years very
interesting times so the government
comes out and they say quantitative
easing here’s what we’re doing they are
putting money slowly but surely into
banks and they buy banks toxic assets is
what they buy toxic securities these are
companies that are about to go on
default and they’re gonna go out of
business they buy those assets from the
bank the bank starts feeling a little
bit better because those toxic assets
are gone gradually money is being put
into these banks and the with the hopes
of the bank taking this money and given
to small business owners and what they
end up doing is they notice that these
banks are putting their money in
Treasuries the government Fed goes and
buys all the Treasuries and a more day
by the rates go from 2% to one and a
half percent to one percent to half
percent whatever the number may be where
the banker is in there saying why not
gonna buy Treasuries they force the
banker to hopefully land to the small
business owner for five to
% so it gets the market going it’s
purely market manipulation with fake
money the value of dollar goes down it
devalues the dollar again I don’t want
to be too technical but hopefully I
explained it to in a way that makes them
somebody explains quantitative easing
just know that it’s the government
buying toxic assets with the hopes of
manipulating the market and the banks to
lend money to small business owners so
they can prosper and create jobs that’s
in essence what it means and a value to
market value dollar goes down but that’s
still a bubble do you have to be paying
attention to so these are some of the
causes of why we may have a market crash
on last but not least how should you be
prepared for it number one is
anticipation you have to anticipate one
of the numbers that you have to keep in
mind for nine straight years a markets
been in positive let me say this one
more time for nine straight years the
markets been in positive and if you look
at the question I asked since 1926 what
is it 74 percent right for 92 years 74
percent of the time the markets done
better that last nine years right a
hundred percent but that’s not really
our free-throw shooting percentage or
free-throw shooting percentages what 74
percent so we need to have three
downturns to go back to 74 percent
because that’ll be nine on twelve
that’s exactly 75 percent so you have to
know those things so just keep in mind
and trust what’s happening with the
history you can’t be too naive about it
right so market is going to crash it’s
not a big deal we may have a correction
or a bear or a crash but it’s gonna be
taking place number two your risk
tolerance you have to be very true to
your risk tolerance if you’re 55 you can
be going you know oh my gosh I’m gonna
go all market cash all this other stuff
I don’t recommend that if you’re 28 and
you got a couple hundred thousand
dollars you also can’t press the panic
button too early right now because
you’re young you can afford a 20 year
run rate you can’t miss those best 50
days you just have to make sure you make
a few pivots and adjustments here and
there number three cash I’m a fan of
cash I’m explain to why I’m a fan of
cash I was on a podcast recently with
with an entrepreneur named Petros he
owns a gym gym 700 different franchises
of gyms that he owns absolute start of a
guy and he’s one of these guys that
actually knows how business works and
he’s good at what he’s doing very
authentic very open about his mistakes
flaws all these
he asked me a question he says what do
you think about the market crash I said
I can’t wait for it he says what do you
mean I said I honestly can’t wait for it
why do you say you can’t wait for it
that’s it’s gonna hurt a lot of people
what do mean can’t wait for the market
crash that’s a first of all it’s
inevitable and every time market crash
happens wealth is made by those who are
prepared for it what do you mean go a
little deeper
listen Mickey Mantle’s baseball card PSA
10 1952 was just bought for 12 million
dollars I think that guy that bought it
for 12 million dollars if a major market
crash happens hissing need for cash not
a lot of people have cash and say I’m
sitting on 60 million dollars of cash
and I go up to my cell give you 3
million dollars I will take you for it
to remain happy for 12 million dollars
I’m giving you cash right now you don’t
have to worry about it
okay do 4.2 million okay 4 million I’ll
give it you 4 million 12 million I wait
five years ten years Markie comes back
up I sell that twelve million dollar
Mickey Mantle call for twenty four
million dollars I spent four million
dollars to twenty four million dollars
that 6x my money because I had cash
right when the market crashes homes are
on sale like right now I’m in Plano I’m
in Dallas everybody thinks oh my gosh
housing in Texas is so cheap everybody
wants to say that 20 years ago it was
today it’s the same price as LA I’m
telling you right now hole pricing in
Texas there’s the same as in LA if
you’re living in Plano Highland Park
those types of communities you’re
looking they just sold the house in
Dallas for like 30 40 50 million dollars
Dallas Texas the most expensive house
the biggest house in America was just on
sell in Dallas on our seventy-five
million dollars what are these things
it’s little overpriced right so you got
to be sitting on cash because some of
the guys that spent twelve million
dollars on the house and he put us all
his money into it the market crashes he
done said have the cash he has to sell
that house for four point two million
three point eight million dollars and
the person who can capitalize on that
opportunity is the one that has cashed
by the way some people say Pat that’s
cold that’s cruel it has not fair
isn’t that why capitalism so ugly no
it’s greed for the person that wasn’t
prepared for market crash that person
deserves everything they get it’s greed
the fact that the person thought the
market is always gonna go up nine years
straight we’ve been in the positive how
are you not prepared for you became too
irrational too confident too optimistic
lost Peron
Oya your stomach got too big so you
start kind of paying attention to
everything the reason why I’m making
this video is for you to be aware that
when this happens you need cash and my
recommendation is 15 to 25 percent cash
not a lot of people agree with that
number I agree with that number it’s
work for me here’s what I mean by it you
got a million dollars right now in
mutual funds stocks bonds real estate
just make sure you got somewhere between
150 to a quarter million dollars in cash
today that you prepared for it Pat
that’s ludicrous I know it is ludicrous
I’m just sharing with you my opinion I
may absolutely be wrong I’m just sharing
with you what I believe is a good
positioning to be at a time where the
markets been positive for nine straight
years nine straight years the markets
been positive while the market since
1926 74 percent of the time is in a
positive you got to pay attention to
those numbers let me give you another
thing here for you to be thinking about
this is numbers here okay maybe only we
can make it bigger for them to see it
today today the Dow Jones is at twenty
five thousand seven twenty that’s what
it closed that today twenty five
thousand seven twenty the SMP 500 is at
two thousand seven 23 2007 23 can you
tell me the last time Dow Jones was at
six thousand 503 and the last time the
SMP 500 was at six seventy six again six
seven six that’s four times more than
four times less than what it is today
and the Dow Jones nearly four times what
it is today can you tell me one the last
time was we were at 65 over 3 or 6 76 76
or anything it was 1949 1973 1988 2001
try 2009 just 9 years ago let me say
this one more time just 9 years ago you
know who loves this boost people who had
cash during this time because those cash
at that time you buying Ford stock at 75
cents you buying Citigroup at 80 cents
you buying companies value stocks that
are gonna come back up for nothing
because those people had cash in place
so you can buy them I’m not telling you
this 100 percent every
body but a small group of people were
ready for this time they prepared for it
number four avoid major real-estate
investments right now I’m avoiding major
real estate investments ran up for a
couple different reasons number one the
current tax setup that Trump has doesn’t
benefit people that own big real estate
properties investment properties that
you live in especially you live in a
house I’m not talking necessarily
investment properties that you’re buying
as long as you keep your cash I’m not
talking investment you buying a big
house I wouldn’t do it right now I just
wouldn’t be doing a write in a matter of
fact I’d be renting right now if I was
you I wouldn’t be buying a house right
now if I was you I just wouldn’t be but
that’s my opinion on what I’m saying I
could absolutely be wrong that’s one of
the things that be talking about
thinking about if I was your number five
caching on some of your profits what do
I mean by that you got a house that’s
sitting there six hundred thousand
dollars you have two hundred eighty
thousand dollars in equity in it maybe
cash in a little bit maybe cash on a
little bit of profits is what I would do
maybe got ten properties sell a couple
of them maybe you got some stocks that
are doing very good and you made 17%
profits on some of them you have some
dividends cash in some of the difference
and dividends and take some out take
some out and set it aside put in your
cash portfolio that you have number six
precious metals maybe three to five
percent
I recommend today maybe three to five
percent some gold seven to me it may be
the best one out of all of these is
protect your career become an expert
today listen let me explain it to you
when the market crashes you know who is
exploited amateurs you know when the
market crashes who becomes the hero
experts you say this one more time when
the market crashes amateurs get
exploited experts become heroes for some
of you that are watching saying how
cruel how cruel for you to you know see
amateurs being exploited amateurs have
the option to stop watching Netflix and
watch videos like this and say I
disagree with the guy and go do research
and become smarter and read business
books instead of watching news feed and
finding out who’s got the new big BOTS
who’s got the best big boobs or who’s
dating cooler who’s dating what amateurs
have the same amount of 24 hours in a
day 168 hours in a week but they’re
entertaining themselves rather than
being prepared
my challenge to you watching this go
become an expert right now before the
next market crash become a beast at
whatever you’re doing right now become
so good that when a market crashes
everyone needs you because you’re
irreplaceable those guys get elevated
elevated in market crashes elevated in
economic collapses elevated when
financial crisis comes around one of the
best tips I can give you is protect your
career last but not least call a timeout
study all your portfolios look all your
investments look at everything cash
artifacts collections stocks bonds
mutual funds real estate equity
positions ownership look at everything
and study it more often than you do
before look at it weekly rather than
used to look at it every quarterly look
at it on a weekly basis go look at your
mutual fund and see words the allocation
with the bottom with the stocks that you
own is it balanced is it to growth is a
to small cap what is it looking like
right now where’s your 401k look can I
actually pay attention to it so now
those are the four things I wanted to
share with you in today’s video
definitions okay
little bit of history cause of a market
crash preparation on how to prepare for
it and I got two videos I want you to
watch one video is 20 rules of money it
gets deeper into it if you watch this
you got to watch 20 rules of money and
the other video after you watch it is
how to double your money watch this
first because this leads into this not
the other way around so watch this first
then go watch the video how to double
your money if you got any questions for
me send me a tweet at Patrick mid David
with any questions you may have from
today’s video and if you haven’t
subscribed yet click on the sub button
right here take everybody love you bye bye
you’re following any experts on Twitter
if you’re reading any news sites that
you’re going through everyone’s trying
to predict the next big market crash
economic collapse financial crisis and
everybody’s worried because fear sells
eyeballs everybody studying this stuff
so today I have two outcomes with this
video for you one is for your day-to-day
conversations with people that you’re
doing business with to know to have an
educated conversation with them about
the subject the second outcome of this
video is for you don’t know how to pivot
with your own finances and prepare
yourself both offensively and
defensively on what to do with the next
market crash so four things are gonna be
covered one is the cause of a market
crash two definitions three history and
four how to prepare for the next market
crash by the way before I get into
explaining everything one of the facts
I’m gonna share with you in this video
that want you to be thinking about and
answer it and see if you can get the
answer since 1926
till today 1926 till today
that’s roughly 90 something years of the
market 92 years of the market how many
years do you think markets been into
positive out of those 90 something years
ninety two years how many years has the
market been in the positive like I want
you to say
22% 43% 68% what do you think it is I’m
gonna answer down a few minutes before I
get into sobbing said that let’s start
off with definitions first number one
everybody drops this word about crash
correction bear market what does it
really mean a market correction is when
a market tanks by 10 percent a bear
market is 20 percent and a crash is when
the market tanks 35 to 60 percent that
lasts three to six months when that
happens that’s a crash so now a lot of
these words you hear about correction
bear market crashed it’s also you hear a
lot of people say recession and some
channels are even talking about
depression we need to always know the
difference between recession and
depression recession is when a market
economic decline six straight months or
higher if it lasts for six months or
higher then we’re in recession a
depression is when the market is in
recession for two plus years and the GDP
of the country drops by 10% when that
happens we’re experiencing a depression
so if anybody drops that word you got to
be able to say wait a minute depression
is you know we’re talking about two
years and we’re talking ten percent GDP
that’s very unlikely I’ll give you the
history of what that really means when
it comes down to the numbers but the
part that you really have to worry about
and this is the part that no expert can
explain to you on what could happen is
the one word you hear it’s called Black
Swan people will say oh we may have a
Black Swan a Black Swan may happen a
Black Swan way this words being dropped
so what is a Black Swan a Black Swan is
something difficult to predict would
massive massive economic consequences so
we can’t predict a Black Swan a 9/11
could be a Black Swan a thing that even
if you watch the movie big short and
they could be able to predict it based
on all the neg and loans that people
weren’t making their payments on their
mortgage payment that’s not a Black Swan
because that one the experts could
predict it’s something we cannot predict
that’s something we always have to worry
about that’s not what this video is
about this video is about things that
you and I can’t predict and things that
we can watch and see trends SEO can kind
of see what’s going on here I have to
worry about these three things I can’t
do anything about these four different
things so now that’s definitions so now
that we’ve covered some of the
terminology whether what’s a correction
bear market you know a crash or
recession the depression of Black Swan
let’s talk a little bit about history
and facts you can kind of get an idea
about some of the trends that are taking
place earlier I asked you questions
since 1926 till today roughly 92 years
what percentage of the time the markets
been on the up what percentage of the
time each given year has been on the
what was your answer I’m so curious by
the way I would like you to post your
answer below comment before I even say
it and after I give you the answer I
want you to tell me if you’re
shell-shocked by the answer ready here’s
what the answer is 74% at a time the
markets been up 74 percent of the time
the markets been up what does this mean
to you listen every one of these experts
that write books and once they write a
book and they say 15 years from now the
markets gonna collapse and it’s going to
be terrible it’s gonna be Armageddon
that book sells for fifteen years until
people really realize that guy didn’t
know what he was talking about and into
our people that say the markets gonna
blow up the next seven years
you should go in guy named Harry dent
wrote a book everybody was like oh my
gosh we’re gonna be billionaires
everybody’s gonna be a billionaire
listen if everyone’s gonna be a
billionaire that’s an absolute hype they
shouldn’t be paying attention to right
if everyone’s gonna become millionaires
or make a lot of money it just doesn’t
work out that way right so here 74
percent which means what no matter how
bad things are in the next 20 years 15
years are gonna be positive
give or take if we do what we’ve done
the last 92 years that’s something for
you to be paying attention to so let’s
go a little bit deeper let’s look at a
little bit of history every time we’ve
had a recession how long has it taken us
to recover how big has the drop in and
how long did it last and last but not
least how much did the GDP of America
actually drop up let’s look at this May
of 1946 we had a recession it lasted 36
months the SMP dropped 30% during that
36 months after the drop off 15 months
it took us to recover 15 months and
during that period the GDP dropped
roughly 1.7 percent remember it has to
drop by more than ten percent to be a
depression remember that and that
doesn’t count as a recession that’s why
it’s only depression August 1956
15-month raishin mark you drop 22
recovered 11 months GDP look at that
three point seven percent that’s bigger
GDP even though was smaller December 61
duration only six months minus 28
recovery 14 months one point six percent
nineteen sixty-six duration a to drop 20
to recover seven months point six
percent roughly the same the next year
let’s come a little bit to now let’s go
1990 2000 July of 1990 three months
minus 20% five months recovery one point
four percent
March of two thousand thirty one months
minus forty nine percent fifty five
months to recover 0.3% we would had a
GDP didn’t change in an October of 2007
the most recent one we experienced
seventeen months minus 57 percent 65
months to recover and even that was five
point one percent GDP which by the way
if you think about it five point one is
a very big number
in today’s economy we almost got to a
depression just ten years ago but we
have to get above 10% you kind of see
what’s going on here here’s the point
though when you look at these numbers
everybody looks and says well but the
market dropped and what about this and
what about that here’s one data to be
thinking about I don’t want you to make
an emotional decision this is not an
emotional oh my gosh better worry from
1997 till today
1997 till today say roughly 4,000 days
each years 365 days times 11 years from
1997 till today if you would have taken
your money out and would have missed on
the 50 best days from 1997 till today
your portfolio would have been 60
percent less if you would have missed
out on the best 50 days what does this
mean this is not necessarily a message
to those about 55 years old because it
has to do with your age and your risk
tolerance this has to do with the person
that’s watching this that’s 29 31 years
old you are not necessarily going to be
that affected by a market crash if it
were to happen on a 20-year period
because if you miss those best days you
are in a way going to be affected by
your networks gonna be affected by so if
you try too much to time it it’ll hit
you so in reality is I’m sharing this
with you to kind of get a better idea on
how long it takes what could happen what
are some of the trends in worst case
scenario how bad has it been can I
handle how bad it’s been if I can I’m
gonna be okay based on my age we’ll talk
a little bit about that in a minute here
let’s talk about now cause of crash what
causes the market to crash number one
take money what is fake money we just
keep having fake money
fake wealth right the next one fake
success people are rich but you know
they’re broke too big difference you
know people look like they have a lot of
money let me tell you like I remember we
had a guy he had 18 properties and yet
equity and all these properties and he
would go around telling everybody is
worth fifteen million dollars and in a
market tank he lost every penny of
equity short sale everything yet to get
rid of he was trying to sell this
property that property this property but
at the peak when everything was looking
good he was on board fifteen million
dollars I’m worth 10 million dollars he
was
it was fake money and a moment we had a
crash he lost it all that went away you
have to be very careful with knowing the
difference between fake money next one
market manipulation happens a lot
some are done by the public some is done
by you know private by the people so
some you and I do it as investors Marc
Marc Amanda pleasure you try to do it
and the other one is that the
government’s doing and we talk about
that here in a minute for geopolitical
terror 9/11 happens we could experience
some like that when it happens again
that’s a Black Swan type of an event it
is geopolitical but it is Black Swan
because it’s unpredictable and it’s
massive consequences it could happen at
any time you can’t control that
number five conflict foreign what am I
talking conflict with foreign trade
tariffs you’re hearing right now with
Trump in China and you know Mexico in
Canada and can we get an agreement all
we’re gonna get it before midterm
election because it’s taking a hit what
are we gonna do here some of those
things takes a hit into the market maybe
not a crash but it can be a hit
number six war wars hurt markets number
seven assassinations you have to know
that’s another thing that sometimes the
market takes a hit when assassination
sample matter if everyone John F Kennedy
I think it’s November 22nd 1963 I think
is November 22nd 1963 when John F
Kennedy was assassinated that day they
shut down the market the next day market
took a hit 2.8 percent
Reagan attempt on assassination the
market tanked 1.2 percent a Nixon
resignation the market tanked 1.3
percent Cuban you know Missile Crisis
market tanked 2.7 percent those are some
of the things that you have to know that
can cause a crash and then the next one
is bubbles when it comes out to crash
you got also know about different kind
of bubbles now what causes a bubble when
bubbles happen we are becoming way too
optimistic a lack of irrational common
sense we lose common sense it’s almost
you know how they say when a person is
in love their brain when they study the
brain it’s as if they’re on drugs when
you start making money consecutively you
become irrational and you lose common
sense because you really start believing
you know what you’re doing and you don’t
but you really start believing oh my
gosh everything’s gonna be fine for me
lack of paranoia unreasonable confidence
bubbles controlled by the government
which I’ll talk about here in a minute
some of the bubbles that we’ve
experienced real estate 2006 we
experienced it Bitcoin a little bit
earlier this year everybody thought they
were going to become millionaires and
billionaires with Bitcoin we realize
after all this a theory and Bitcoin bit
cash you know everything Ripple all
these things that were taking place we
realized a technology solid we may be
going to corrupt old currency I don’t
know if bitcoins worth $50,000 I don’t
know if it’s worth $100,000 some people
say it’s a still it is I may be wrong
but a lot of would have was happening
with bitcoins with signs of a bubble
young people were excited everybody
changed their profiles on their Twitter
account cryptocurrency expert
cryptocurrency expert you’re 17 years
old yeah but I’m a cryptocurrency expert
all of these things are signs of what a
bubble happens right I pure bubble back
in the 90s everybody was going public
raising money everybody was tech boom
credit bubble oh my gosh today school on
1.4 trillion dollars if we start
defaulting on that it’s going to be very
interesting now you got the debt bubble
which we experience a little bit in oh
wait you got some of these investors in
Silicon Valley these new people that are
coming into some money and they’re just
throwing money at startups and these
real P guys that have been around for a
while they’re kind of upset with these
other guys that it’s a very funny thing
going on right now with peas and and
investors going and throwing money at
new startups but that’s all a bubble
right let me spend a little bit of time
talking about bubbles controlled by the
government it’s very important for you
to know this part and I’m gonna try to
say it in the simplest way possible that
makes sense to you because sometimes you
hear words and here’s how we watch the
news or we read the article here’s how
we read let me take some if you’ve ever
done this before
you’ll read an article one of the
challenges that we’re facing today is
quantitative easing and that that depth
that Hammond boom you’re lost you change
the article and the reason why I change
the article is because you don’t know
what quantitative easing means or you
watch somebody use a big water you don’t
know what it means when it comes down to
money
you actually have to pause and search
and find out what that word means to
educate yourself we have to be very
careful with bubbles controlled by the
government for example the federal rates
you know the race that we have currently
right now they keep raising the rates
and the market keeps going down you know
sometimes they lower the rates and they
call it quantitative easing now what is
quantity quantitate
easing we did back in 2008 when the
market collapsed and then all of a
sudden banks became so tight they were
not giving money to small business
owners and the moment the small business
owners no longer getting money to go
grow their businesses economy takes a
hit because job 65% of jobs in America
are created by small business owners we
need these small business owners to be
getting loans to start creating jobs
right so the government’s at the top
saying oh my gosh what do we do let’s
lower the rate and they keep lowering
the rates and they keep lowering the
rate and then all of a sudden the banker
who doesn’t care about the feds lowering
the rates he doesn’t care about the
economy he cares about keeping his job
and the only one person that can fire
him isn’t the customer isn’t a federal
government official it’s his boss that
works at the bank so the more money he
lends and the businesses go out of
business and they lose the money he’s
fired so him the banker sat down and he
said well I know the government gave us
some money and I know the rate is very
low right now it’s zero percent to a
quarter of a percent why don’t we go buy
some Treasury bonds and we get two
percent on that and if we’re paying you
know zero to a quarter but we’re getting
two percent we’re making minimum one
point seven five or maybe two I’m at
least reporting positive numbers who
cares
forget about giving any money to small
business owners and we experienced this
for three four five years very
interesting times so the government
comes out and they say quantitative
easing here’s what we’re doing they are
putting money slowly but surely into
banks and they buy banks toxic assets is
what they buy toxic securities these are
companies that are about to go on
default and they’re gonna go out of
business they buy those assets from the
bank the bank starts feeling a little
bit better because those toxic assets
are gone gradually money is being put
into these banks and the with the hopes
of the bank taking this money and given
to small business owners and what they
end up doing is they notice that these
banks are putting their money in
Treasuries the government Fed goes and
buys all the Treasuries and a more day
by the rates go from 2% to one and a
half percent to one percent to half
percent whatever the number may be where
the banker is in there saying why not
gonna buy Treasuries they force the
banker to hopefully land to the small
business owner for five to
% so it gets the market going it’s
purely market manipulation with fake
money the value of dollar goes down it
devalues the dollar again I don’t want
to be too technical but hopefully I
explained it to in a way that makes them
somebody explains quantitative easing
just know that it’s the government
buying toxic assets with the hopes of
manipulating the market and the banks to
lend money to small business owners so
they can prosper and create jobs that’s
in essence what it means and a value to
market value dollar goes down but that’s
still a bubble do you have to be paying
attention to so these are some of the
causes of why we may have a market crash
on last but not least how should you be
prepared for it number one is
anticipation you have to anticipate one
of the numbers that you have to keep in
mind for nine straight years a markets
been in positive let me say this one
more time for nine straight years the
markets been in positive and if you look
at the question I asked since 1926 what
is it 74 percent right for 92 years 74
percent of the time the markets done
better that last nine years right a
hundred percent but that’s not really
our free-throw shooting percentage or
free-throw shooting percentages what 74
percent so we need to have three
downturns to go back to 74 percent
because that’ll be nine on twelve
that’s exactly 75 percent so you have to
know those things so just keep in mind
and trust what’s happening with the
history you can’t be too naive about it
right so market is going to crash it’s
not a big deal we may have a correction
or a bear or a crash but it’s gonna be
taking place number two your risk
tolerance you have to be very true to
your risk tolerance if you’re 55 you can
be going you know oh my gosh I’m gonna
go all market cash all this other stuff
I don’t recommend that if you’re 28 and
you got a couple hundred thousand
dollars you also can’t press the panic
button too early right now because
you’re young you can afford a 20 year
run rate you can’t miss those best 50
days you just have to make sure you make
a few pivots and adjustments here and
there number three cash I’m a fan of
cash I’m explain to why I’m a fan of
cash I was on a podcast recently with
with an entrepreneur named Petros he
owns a gym gym 700 different franchises
of gyms that he owns absolute start of a
guy and he’s one of these guys that
actually knows how business works and
he’s good at what he’s doing very
authentic very open about his mistakes
flaws all these
he asked me a question he says what do
you think about the market crash I said
I can’t wait for it he says what do you
mean I said I honestly can’t wait for it
why do you say you can’t wait for it
that’s it’s gonna hurt a lot of people
what do mean can’t wait for the market
crash that’s a first of all it’s
inevitable and every time market crash
happens wealth is made by those who are
prepared for it what do you mean go a
little deeper
listen Mickey Mantle’s baseball card PSA
10 1952 was just bought for 12 million
dollars I think that guy that bought it
for 12 million dollars if a major market
crash happens hissing need for cash not
a lot of people have cash and say I’m
sitting on 60 million dollars of cash
and I go up to my cell give you 3
million dollars I will take you for it
to remain happy for 12 million dollars
I’m giving you cash right now you don’t
have to worry about it
okay do 4.2 million okay 4 million I’ll
give it you 4 million 12 million I wait
five years ten years Markie comes back
up I sell that twelve million dollar
Mickey Mantle call for twenty four
million dollars I spent four million
dollars to twenty four million dollars
that 6x my money because I had cash
right when the market crashes homes are
on sale like right now I’m in Plano I’m
in Dallas everybody thinks oh my gosh
housing in Texas is so cheap everybody
wants to say that 20 years ago it was
today it’s the same price as LA I’m
telling you right now hole pricing in
Texas there’s the same as in LA if
you’re living in Plano Highland Park
those types of communities you’re
looking they just sold the house in
Dallas for like 30 40 50 million dollars
Dallas Texas the most expensive house
the biggest house in America was just on
sell in Dallas on our seventy-five
million dollars what are these things
it’s little overpriced right so you got
to be sitting on cash because some of
the guys that spent twelve million
dollars on the house and he put us all
his money into it the market crashes he
done said have the cash he has to sell
that house for four point two million
three point eight million dollars and
the person who can capitalize on that
opportunity is the one that has cashed
by the way some people say Pat that’s
cold that’s cruel it has not fair
isn’t that why capitalism so ugly no
it’s greed for the person that wasn’t
prepared for market crash that person
deserves everything they get it’s greed
the fact that the person thought the
market is always gonna go up nine years
straight we’ve been in the positive how
are you not prepared for you became too
irrational too confident too optimistic
lost Peron
Oya your stomach got too big so you
start kind of paying attention to
everything the reason why I’m making
this video is for you to be aware that
when this happens you need cash and my
recommendation is 15 to 25 percent cash
not a lot of people agree with that
number I agree with that number it’s
work for me here’s what I mean by it you
got a million dollars right now in
mutual funds stocks bonds real estate
just make sure you got somewhere between
150 to a quarter million dollars in cash
today that you prepared for it Pat
that’s ludicrous I know it is ludicrous
I’m just sharing with you my opinion I
may absolutely be wrong I’m just sharing
with you what I believe is a good
positioning to be at a time where the
markets been positive for nine straight
years nine straight years the markets
been positive while the market since
1926 74 percent of the time is in a
positive you got to pay attention to
those numbers let me give you another
thing here for you to be thinking about
this is numbers here okay maybe only we
can make it bigger for them to see it
today today the Dow Jones is at twenty
five thousand seven twenty that’s what
it closed that today twenty five
thousand seven twenty the SMP 500 is at
two thousand seven 23 2007 23 can you
tell me the last time Dow Jones was at
six thousand 503 and the last time the
SMP 500 was at six seventy six again six
seven six that’s four times more than
four times less than what it is today
and the Dow Jones nearly four times what
it is today can you tell me one the last
time was we were at 65 over 3 or 6 76 76
or anything it was 1949 1973 1988 2001
try 2009 just 9 years ago let me say
this one more time just 9 years ago you
know who loves this boost people who had
cash during this time because those cash
at that time you buying Ford stock at 75
cents you buying Citigroup at 80 cents
you buying companies value stocks that
are gonna come back up for nothing
because those people had cash in place
so you can buy them I’m not telling you
this 100 percent every
body but a small group of people were
ready for this time they prepared for it
number four avoid major real-estate
investments right now I’m avoiding major
real estate investments ran up for a
couple different reasons number one the
current tax setup that Trump has doesn’t
benefit people that own big real estate
properties investment properties that
you live in especially you live in a
house I’m not talking necessarily
investment properties that you’re buying
as long as you keep your cash I’m not
talking investment you buying a big
house I wouldn’t do it right now I just
wouldn’t be doing a write in a matter of
fact I’d be renting right now if I was
you I wouldn’t be buying a house right
now if I was you I just wouldn’t be but
that’s my opinion on what I’m saying I
could absolutely be wrong that’s one of
the things that be talking about
thinking about if I was your number five
caching on some of your profits what do
I mean by that you got a house that’s
sitting there six hundred thousand
dollars you have two hundred eighty
thousand dollars in equity in it maybe
cash in a little bit maybe cash on a
little bit of profits is what I would do
maybe got ten properties sell a couple
of them maybe you got some stocks that
are doing very good and you made 17%
profits on some of them you have some
dividends cash in some of the difference
and dividends and take some out take
some out and set it aside put in your
cash portfolio that you have number six
precious metals maybe three to five
percent
I recommend today maybe three to five
percent some gold seven to me it may be
the best one out of all of these is
protect your career become an expert
today listen let me explain it to you
when the market crashes you know who is
exploited amateurs you know when the
market crashes who becomes the hero
experts you say this one more time when
the market crashes amateurs get
exploited experts become heroes for some
of you that are watching saying how
cruel how cruel for you to you know see
amateurs being exploited amateurs have
the option to stop watching Netflix and
watch videos like this and say I
disagree with the guy and go do research
and become smarter and read business
books instead of watching news feed and
finding out who’s got the new big BOTS
who’s got the best big boobs or who’s
dating cooler who’s dating what amateurs
have the same amount of 24 hours in a
day 168 hours in a week but they’re
entertaining themselves rather than
being prepared
my challenge to you watching this go
become an expert right now before the
next market crash become a beast at
whatever you’re doing right now become
so good that when a market crashes
everyone needs you because you’re
irreplaceable those guys get elevated
elevated in market crashes elevated in
economic collapses elevated when
financial crisis comes around one of the
best tips I can give you is protect your
career last but not least call a timeout
study all your portfolios look all your
investments look at everything cash
artifacts collections stocks bonds
mutual funds real estate equity
positions ownership look at everything
and study it more often than you do
before look at it weekly rather than
used to look at it every quarterly look
at it on a weekly basis go look at your
mutual fund and see words the allocation
with the bottom with the stocks that you
own is it balanced is it to growth is a
to small cap what is it looking like
right now where’s your 401k look can I
actually pay attention to it so now
those are the four things I wanted to
share with you in today’s video
definitions okay
little bit of history cause of a market
crash preparation on how to prepare for
it and I got two videos I want you to
watch one video is 20 rules of money it
gets deeper into it if you watch this
you got to watch 20 rules of money and
the other video after you watch it is
how to double your money watch this
first because this leads into this not
the other way around so watch this first
then go watch the video how to double
your money if you got any questions for
me send me a tweet at Patrick mid David
with any questions you may have from
today’s video and if you haven’t
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right here take everybody love you bye bye
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