I’ve live in Indonesia my entire life
and what I have come to realize is that
Indonesia faces a severe pollution
problem not only the numerous vehicles
populate the streets of Jakarta does
creating air pollution but the general
quality of water and water raised such
as rivers is also very poor I have
always wondered why is it that we are
still unable to solve this problem after
all in this modern era there is just so
much to Tammi done so recently I have
started doing research on this issue and
while working on the topic of game
theory I discovered the length between
the two my name is Moses and today I am
here to talk about how game theory can
be used to tackle enemy shows Persian
crisis so what exactly is game theory
game theory is defined as the study of
mathematical models of conflict and
cooperation between intelligent rational
decision makers in other words it
studies how rationally thinking parties
modify their actions in order to obtain
the highest possible payoffs or rewards
to themselves game theory has been used
in many subjects such as economics
political science and Floss psychology
and even has applications in logic
computer science and biology to further
illustrate the concept of conflict and
cooperation I’d like to play a game that
although is very basic is widely
referenced in the field this game is
called the prisoner’s dilemma the
scenario is as follows
you and an accomplice of yours have been
convicted of a crime but are offered a
chance at Salvation the two of you are
placed in separate rooms with no means
of contacting each other if both of you
stay silent you’ll both be held for
further questioning but then be allowed
to walk free and split the or earnings
between the two of you if you testify
against your accomplice
you will get to walk free and keep all
the money to yourself while he faces a
five-year sentence but if the two of you
decide to testify against each other
that not only will the money be
confiscated but both of you will earn a
two-year sentence so what do you do at
first glance it may seem that a
selective group the best possible option
would be for both of you to stay silent
because no one would be sentenced if
both of you testify against each other
not only will you not get the money but
now both of you face a sentence but if
you choose to stay silent then there is
the risk that your accomplice testifies
against you and if that happens you face
a five-year sentence and he gets all the
money so what do you do it is game such
as this one where one faces a dilemma as
to whether to cooperate or strive for
their own benefit that forms the basis
of many of game theory theories
questions operate and put your faith in
the other player while simultaneously
risking your own loss or do you strive
for your own benefit and make sure that
you will not lose more than the other
player does anyways on to what I came
here to talk about using game theory for
pollution we all know that pollution has
become much worse in Indonesia over the
past few years Indonesia is now home to
two of the world’s most polluted places
namely Kalimantan and a chattering River
located 40 miles east of Jakarta these
two places are just examples of how
industry in Indonesia has caused air and
water pollution the chattering River in
particular has suffered due to the Swift
unmonitored growth of the textile
industry and the number of factories
that are located alongside the river
these factories release their chemical
wastes into the water thus contaminating
it with heavy metals such as mercury
along with domestic waste from the local
folk who live alongside the river the
terrorem has become the world’s most
polluted river and has affected local
folk who rely on it as a source of water
in the form of diseases likewise
pollution has become rampant in
Indonesia with the capital Jakarta
becoming the 43rd most polluted city in
the entire world this is mainly due to
the subpar quality of public services in
Korea which incentivizes many people to
go to work using their own vehicles
along with the number of factories and
power plants that burn fossil fuels and
release air pollution in environment and
also the burning of trash in order to
dispose of it and the clearing of forest
land through the use of deliberate fires
in other parts of Indonesia air
pollution has become much worse in
Indonesia than where it was 20 years ago
and back in 2015 I’m sure many of you
would remember that there was a giant
haze that spread drops Vatra climb on
top and even to neighboring countries
such as Singapore and Malaysia so for my
own research I have decided to model two
games one for the issue of air pollution
and one for the issue of water pollution
but before I am able to actually create
models for the games I must first decide
the players in each game which are the
parties capable of modifying the
outcomes of the game based on what they
choose to do I must also decide the
motives of each of the players and the
strategies available to them and also
the effects of playing certain
strategies on the outcome of the game
after some deliberation I’ve decided
that the government would be a major
player in both the game for air
pollution and for water pollution I have
also decided to include this group of
industrial firms as a single player for
the sake of simplicity and for the game
for water clean air pollution I’ve also
decided to include the general
population as a player now for the
motives of each player for the purposes
of analysis the assumed main goal of the
government is to regulate the levels of
pollution and environment such that it
creates a good quality of life for the
citizens but also minimize costs at the
same time if there’s too much pollution
in the government in any environment
then not only would it affect the
population it means such as sicknesses
but it could also create worsen the
image of the country to neighboring
countries if it’s if the pollution
spreads such as what had happened back
in 2015 but then if they increase the
cost then the government would be
steering more towards a budget deficit
and could put them in more depth
likewise for the firm’s
the zoom main goal is to minimize the
cost deface in order to get the most
profit now for the sake of simplicity we
will assume that the firm’s are all only
interested in their own game and thus
they will not be doing any strategies
just for altruistic motives such as
trying to be responsible for him store
the environment and lastly for the
population the assumed main goal is also
to minimize costs to face now after
deciding the players in each game and
the strategies that each player has we
are able to create functions that
modeled the total cost faced by each
these functions each involves several
variables each of which will be affected
by a change in the other for example for
the function for government the involved
variables are the cost for cleaning up
the cost for healthcare and their legal
cost gathers required to impose laws and
files also other firms now notice that
by changing one of these the others will
also extremely change thus adding
another layer of complexity to the game
for example if the government chooses to
increase the cost they spend for
speeding up the environment then there
would mean that there is less pollution
in an environment and as a result less
people would fall sick due to pollution
this means that they would not have to
provide as much for public health care
services which reduces their costs for
health care and now even though they
have had to spend more towards feeding
up but then they have been able to
experience a greater decrease in the
cost for health care thus resulting in
an overall overall cost increase
now notice that in both games the
government is the most powerful player
as they decide what to do in terms of
like the laws and fines that they want
to impose and also how much they want to
contribute towards cleaning up the
environment so they could say for
example of make firms responsible for
contributing more towards king of the
environment although this means that the
government will minimize the costs they
risk backlash from the shareholders of
firms as now the firm’s would have to
spend more money this could result in
the political image of the government
declining so now the government faces a
dilemma as to whether to increase the
cost he spent towards cleaning up and
face no risk of backlash or spend less
towards cleaning up the environment but
then in turn experience a more backlash
and even the risk of political
instability and in major cases a
possible revolt so like in the
prisoner’s dilemma we have the same
exact dilemma now spend less and improve
your political image spend wearing
improve your political image or spend
less but then worsen political image now
this game such as this one and models
where we realize that we can not use
mathematics to solve models but also
approach them from a game theoretic
perspective like what we have been
discussing so far the game theoretic
perspective allows us to consider every
single possibility
thus understanding the effects of
changing your strategies it takes an
account the idea of rational rational
decision-making and thus although it may
not be suited for decisions that must be
made in a short time it allows us to
understand every single consequence of
whatever we do based on what other
players – hence the beautiful process
now let’s look at an example of game
that involves three of three previously
mentioned players
the government the firm’s and a
population if the government decides to
play now notice that each of these
strategies can be divided into two
groups ones where the player does not
have to spend money and ones where the
player has to spend more money
also notice that doing nothing is in
fact a legitimate strategy for each of
the players and could in fact be the
best possible strategy now for example
say the government decides to play the
second and third strategies that they
have which involves increasing their
costs but improving public services and
cleaning up the environment then
although the costs have increased they
would get more public support because
not only do firms have to pay less for
collusion now but then the population is
also able to enjoy better public
services and also like the friends would
as friends are less responsible then
this means that the shareholders or
firms would also possibly rally in
support of the government but thus
improving the government’s chances at
being reelected and also increasing
their improving their political image
likewise for the firms they have the
option of spending money in order to
decrease the effects of pollution that
they impose in environment this is done
do research and development or by
installing filters now although this
increases their cost and also makes it
so that they have to expend a effort in
order to maintain the environments but
then this means that there will be less
pollution in the environment and so this
could lead to less of their employees
fall sick and because less employees are
falling sick this means that the
employees will be coming to work more
does improving productivity which in
turn will increase their profits game
theory and mathematics aren’t just
subjects that we study in school to
improve our GPA their applications
crossed the boundaries of just
theoretical concepts to realize
situations even those were mathematics
and game theory just does not even seem
to be related so the next time you’re
sitting in a classroom listening to a
math lecture
I implore you to realize that what
you’re listening to is forms the basis
of many of the world’s most critical
decisions thank you for your time [Applause]