[Music]
our news and social media have become
battlegrounds or assumed solutions to
assumed problems are argued over fueled
by agendas soundbites and self-righteous
attitudes many of us are getting pulled
into these debates as a serial problem
solver
I find this trend very frustrating from
gun control to global warming to
immigration law people are taking up
positions based on their opinion or
opinions of others largely missing from
these debates are facts data and some
basic problem-solving methodologies
would you feel comfortable depending on
opinion to find a cure for cancer or for
diabetes if not then why is opinion good
enough to solve other problems but there
is hope remember the problem-solving
process that we were taught to use for
science fairs it’s called the scientific
method and it really works now don’t be
fooled by the name it’s not just for
geeks and lab coats and in case it’s
been a while for some of you it goes
like this
the process starts with a problem and
ends with causes of that problem being
proven then you can move on to finding
solutions that fix the problem
permanently ok this is how it works
start by defining the problem and
measuring just how bad it really is
let’s use an example let’s say your GPA
is too low your current measurement
let’s say is a 1.7 and you don’t want
anything less than a 3.5 so in
cause-and-effect terms your GPA is the
effect and that’s usually depicted as a
capital y and in case you forget that
we’ve got a little little healthcare
uh-huh
so next you develop theories these are
just theories about potential causes of
that problem by repeatedly asking the
question why use your experience your
observations or tap some other experts
to help generate a list of potential
for example your study habits the
difficulty of your courses going to
class extracurricular activities or even
the friends that you hang out with could
all possibly be reasons for a low GPA in
cause and effects terms these are the
potential causes and are usually
depicted as a lowercase X so and don’t
worry if some of your exes are things
that are outside of your control it’s
still important to understand the impact
that they’re having on your Y you just
won’t waste time later on trying to fix
them probably the best example of that
would be agriculture – a farmer yields
are obviously a major y and weather is
going to be a very very big cause or X
so it’s important understand the impact
that weather has on your yields but
you’re not going to waste a lot of time
trying to fix the weather obviously that
time would be far better spent on crop
rotations tilling practises chemical
application and any other X’s that
proved significant to that yield to that
y now your hypothesis pulls together
your theories about potential causes now
in geek-speak
this is represented as the is the
equation y is a function of X where Y is
the problem X are the potential causes
and f is the strength in the direction
of the relationship between x and y for
example the longer you study the higher
your GPA while the harder your course is
the lower your GPA showing up for class
may have a large impact on that GPA
we’re playing on a sports team may only
have a small impact so now it’s the fun
part we get to test our hypotheses by
gathering data about the relationship
between x and y is y better or worse
when x is present and how much impact if
any does X have on why for example was
your GPA higher when you used to study
in the library more or when it was the
offseason for your sport are your grades
lower in classes that you skip more
often
or were they better before you met a new
friend gather as many facts and evidence
as possible and you look for patterns in
this data and draw fact-based
conclusions now the challenge here and
this is a significant challenge is to
keep an open mind what we often see is
our original theories about causes our
pet theories we’re just sure we know the
causes end up being dead wrong if the
data doesn’t support one of your
theories are one of your X’s tossed it
aside grab the next one and start
gathering data in other words if you
can’t prove that your GPA was worse when
you were playing a sport you can’t blame
your coach for your grades if the data
does support your hypothesis Yurika you
have just found one of the causes of
your problem because if your grades are
lower when you skip classes you just
found a cause for your low GPA the same
scientific method has been used to
identify the major causes of cancer and
diabetes and now that those causes are
known the focus can shift toward coming
up with best solutions if skipping class
is one of the causes of your low GPA you
can focus on getting creative about
making sure you go to class get an app
that nags you to go to class enlist a
friend to drive you to class donate $20
to a charity every time you miss a class
but these solutions should get results
because they’re focused on proven causes
of that problem so we’re gonna take a
look at another example
behind me is a cat estat this is a nifty
little device that I built it’s going to
help me demonstrate the power of the
scientific method in action so the Y
variable in this case is the distance
that this ball is going to travel the
potential X variables are any number of
pin locations you can see here which
tension the rubberband differently we’ve
got a pin that dictates how far the arm
comes forward before the ball is
released I’ve got a continuous variable
here is how far I pull it back and then
also where the rubberband
attaches to the to the arm so a number
of X variables that are going to play
into the Y that we that we achieve so
I’ve already run the hypothesis test
with this thing using a program called
Minitab and I’ve solved the equation y
is a function of X for the problem of
distance I understand the strength in
the direction of the relationship
between each of those X’s and my Y of
distance and because of I because I
understand that I can now control the
distance that I shoot the ball so now
this is where I need your help
I need a problem to solve I need a
distance to hit I need a number in
inches between 30 and 80 it’s never
never easy okay 72 and a half so I
thought the Red Solo Cup would be
appropriate for a college setting I’ve
got a scale here I’m gonna line this up
with 72 and a half I’m going to consult
Minitab to optimize for 72 and a half
inches and it’s gonna tell me what I
need to do with my X’s okay so I need to
set mice the thing that stops the arm at
4.1 I need a stop angle of three and I
we don’t have a drumroll I don’t suppose
oh okay so I’m glad that happened
actually I’m not glad at all I was going
to take a bow walk out to thundering
applause and maybe a standing ovation
okay so it was really close though right
you saw that well an interesting thing
happened as I began characterizing this
device I designed a number of X’s into
it all of the things I described to you
but a few other X’s started to creep in
I discovered that things like how I
released how I let go the surface that
it’s sitting on how long it had been
since it had last launched the ball the
rubber band apparently starts to to get
a little more tension if it’s been a
while since it’s been used hasn’t been
used since yesterday so now we’ve got
X’s that that I didn’t consider in my
original work so the good news is well
two things if those are X’s that I can
control great I will get control of them
and and zero in if they are things that
are outside of my control then I might
have to settle with a little bit larger
Cup so maybe I’m not going to get that
three point five maybe because I have to
play a sport because of my scholarship
and I’ve got a hard major so my classes
are really hard
I might have to settle for a three point
four three point three something like
that but so well I’m gonna set this up
out there later we’ll play around a
point being things happen for reasons
for because us and if we can understand
those causes we can solve nearly any
problem that Cup and we hit it could be
world peace
it could be school safety or it might
just be a better GPA done correctly the
scientific method is apolitical its
unemotional and it’s a collaborative
search for facts
I know not everyone wants to become an
expert in the scientific method I get
that of however I challenge all of us to
shift our conversations about important
topics towards defining the problem and
understanding the exes and only then can
we truly solve problems in meaningful
ways let’s all become advocates for
because
[Applause] [Music]
our news and social media have become
battlegrounds or assumed solutions to
assumed problems are argued over fueled
by agendas soundbites and self-righteous
attitudes many of us are getting pulled
into these debates as a serial problem
solver
I find this trend very frustrating from
gun control to global warming to
immigration law people are taking up
positions based on their opinion or
opinions of others largely missing from
these debates are facts data and some
basic problem-solving methodologies
would you feel comfortable depending on
opinion to find a cure for cancer or for
diabetes if not then why is opinion good
enough to solve other problems but there
is hope remember the problem-solving
process that we were taught to use for
science fairs it’s called the scientific
method and it really works now don’t be
fooled by the name it’s not just for
geeks and lab coats and in case it’s
been a while for some of you it goes
like this
the process starts with a problem and
ends with causes of that problem being
proven then you can move on to finding
solutions that fix the problem
permanently ok this is how it works
start by defining the problem and
measuring just how bad it really is
let’s use an example let’s say your GPA
is too low your current measurement
let’s say is a 1.7 and you don’t want
anything less than a 3.5 so in
cause-and-effect terms your GPA is the
effect and that’s usually depicted as a
capital y and in case you forget that
we’ve got a little little healthcare
uh-huh
so next you develop theories these are
just theories about potential causes of
that problem by repeatedly asking the
question why use your experience your
observations or tap some other experts
to help generate a list of potential
for example your study habits the
difficulty of your courses going to
class extracurricular activities or even
the friends that you hang out with could
all possibly be reasons for a low GPA in
cause and effects terms these are the
potential causes and are usually
depicted as a lowercase X so and don’t
worry if some of your exes are things
that are outside of your control it’s
still important to understand the impact
that they’re having on your Y you just
won’t waste time later on trying to fix
them probably the best example of that
would be agriculture – a farmer yields
are obviously a major y and weather is
going to be a very very big cause or X
so it’s important understand the impact
that weather has on your yields but
you’re not going to waste a lot of time
trying to fix the weather obviously that
time would be far better spent on crop
rotations tilling practises chemical
application and any other X’s that
proved significant to that yield to that
y now your hypothesis pulls together
your theories about potential causes now
in geek-speak
this is represented as the is the
equation y is a function of X where Y is
the problem X are the potential causes
and f is the strength in the direction
of the relationship between x and y for
example the longer you study the higher
your GPA while the harder your course is
the lower your GPA showing up for class
may have a large impact on that GPA
we’re playing on a sports team may only
have a small impact so now it’s the fun
part we get to test our hypotheses by
gathering data about the relationship
between x and y is y better or worse
when x is present and how much impact if
any does X have on why for example was
your GPA higher when you used to study
in the library more or when it was the
offseason for your sport are your grades
lower in classes that you skip more
often
or were they better before you met a new
friend gather as many facts and evidence
as possible and you look for patterns in
this data and draw fact-based
conclusions now the challenge here and
this is a significant challenge is to
keep an open mind what we often see is
our original theories about causes our
pet theories we’re just sure we know the
causes end up being dead wrong if the
data doesn’t support one of your
theories are one of your X’s tossed it
aside grab the next one and start
gathering data in other words if you
can’t prove that your GPA was worse when
you were playing a sport you can’t blame
your coach for your grades if the data
does support your hypothesis Yurika you
have just found one of the causes of
your problem because if your grades are
lower when you skip classes you just
found a cause for your low GPA the same
scientific method has been used to
identify the major causes of cancer and
diabetes and now that those causes are
known the focus can shift toward coming
up with best solutions if skipping class
is one of the causes of your low GPA you
can focus on getting creative about
making sure you go to class get an app
that nags you to go to class enlist a
friend to drive you to class donate $20
to a charity every time you miss a class
but these solutions should get results
because they’re focused on proven causes
of that problem so we’re gonna take a
look at another example
behind me is a cat estat this is a nifty
little device that I built it’s going to
help me demonstrate the power of the
scientific method in action so the Y
variable in this case is the distance
that this ball is going to travel the
potential X variables are any number of
pin locations you can see here which
tension the rubberband differently we’ve
got a pin that dictates how far the arm
comes forward before the ball is
released I’ve got a continuous variable
here is how far I pull it back and then
also where the rubberband
attaches to the to the arm so a number
of X variables that are going to play
into the Y that we that we achieve so
I’ve already run the hypothesis test
with this thing using a program called
Minitab and I’ve solved the equation y
is a function of X for the problem of
distance I understand the strength in
the direction of the relationship
between each of those X’s and my Y of
distance and because of I because I
understand that I can now control the
distance that I shoot the ball so now
this is where I need your help
I need a problem to solve I need a
distance to hit I need a number in
inches between 30 and 80 it’s never
never easy okay 72 and a half so I
thought the Red Solo Cup would be
appropriate for a college setting I’ve
got a scale here I’m gonna line this up
with 72 and a half I’m going to consult
Minitab to optimize for 72 and a half
inches and it’s gonna tell me what I
need to do with my X’s okay so I need to
set mice the thing that stops the arm at
4.1 I need a stop angle of three and I
we don’t have a drumroll I don’t suppose
oh okay so I’m glad that happened
actually I’m not glad at all I was going
to take a bow walk out to thundering
applause and maybe a standing ovation
okay so it was really close though right
you saw that well an interesting thing
happened as I began characterizing this
device I designed a number of X’s into
it all of the things I described to you
but a few other X’s started to creep in
I discovered that things like how I
released how I let go the surface that
it’s sitting on how long it had been
since it had last launched the ball the
rubber band apparently starts to to get
a little more tension if it’s been a
while since it’s been used hasn’t been
used since yesterday so now we’ve got
X’s that that I didn’t consider in my
original work so the good news is well
two things if those are X’s that I can
control great I will get control of them
and and zero in if they are things that
are outside of my control then I might
have to settle with a little bit larger
Cup so maybe I’m not going to get that
three point five maybe because I have to
play a sport because of my scholarship
and I’ve got a hard major so my classes
are really hard
I might have to settle for a three point
four three point three something like
that but so well I’m gonna set this up
out there later we’ll play around a
point being things happen for reasons
for because us and if we can understand
those causes we can solve nearly any
problem that Cup and we hit it could be
world peace
it could be school safety or it might
just be a better GPA done correctly the
scientific method is apolitical its
unemotional and it’s a collaborative
search for facts
I know not everyone wants to become an
expert in the scientific method I get
that of however I challenge all of us to
shift our conversations about important
topics towards defining the problem and
understanding the exes and only then can
we truly solve problems in meaningful
ways let’s all become advocates for
because
[Applause] [Music]
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