welcome to hit mojo shell 22 on this
week’s show we’re going to talk about
2012 predictions that you’re going to
deliver and I’m gonna give you guys my
auntie prediction I can’t believe you
talked me into this i hate predictions
everyone just uses it an excuse to get
some attention they run their mouths off
no one’s ever right I don’t even have
confidence in my own but that’s great
that’s what you want to hear make sure
why don’t listen to me you watch in fact
you should just click the back button
now alright um I got a few so what I got
three here in total first I think Amazon
is actually going to reach its tentacles
a lot further and I know that sounds
flimsy but they have their tentacles and
everything right now but I think they’re
going to become a household name more
they’re going to start to get a lot more
brand recognition for your you know
doing things like video and cloud and
all that kind of stuff so that is a
flimsy but ok fair enough pretty it’s
gonna probably save actually that when I
go the other way um is the sky blue as
well only on a sunny day the other one
and this is more of a hope rather than a
prediction but a Google will quietly
kill off Google Plus that’s bold I don’t
think so but ok maybe I don’t think
within a year but these guys are sitting
on like 40 billion dollars of cash
they’re just gonna throw cash at
everything until something kills
facebook which way should really throw
cash it’s something that works because
nothing yeah anyways which brings me to
my next prediction what you just said I
think Facebook might actually hit a
billion users in 2012 in 2012 well what
they went from like five to eight
hundred million in 2011 so I think you
know yeah that’s possible i mean it’s i
think that that I think the IPO will
allow them to open up a lot of markets
get a lot of press etc etc ok so those
are your three I don’t just as a quick
aside I think they’re going to eat into
Google’s share as a marketing tool
Google is huge on AdWords right now
facebook is becoming a much more viable
advertising and marketing platform
everything from there adds to their
pages to their data mining I think
they’re gonna you’re going to start
seeing people spending a little bit less
on clicks from google and a little bit
more on clicks like you’re actually
going to see some budget shift maybe not
a lot but it’ll be noticeable alright so
bye aunty predictions you could read
them and then all sort of chimed in to
make
this less you know ash going crazy on
our ranch could you be any more
ambiguous we will have standards and
definition okay so this is an online
video anti prediction each year we say
how an online video we don’t know what a
view is and we don’t know if it’s
click-through rates the CTR that matters
or whatever every year we say dishes the
urine my good friend Paul come tonus of
digitized said this is the year 2012 I
think he’s wrong I think everybody is
crazy we’re going to finally start to
openly admit that we lack definitions
and we lack standards but no way is 2012
where we all get together kumbaya hold
hands and say Tata this is what defines
a view it is a you know blah blah blah
blah it’s not gonna happen it will
probably never happen so don’t count on
that all right okay really the year of
mobile every year isn’t like 2005 oh
it’s in 1994 you know every year is just
used a year of mobile listen Mobile’s
here granted it’s been a lot of text and
images and you know back in the day
screen savers or you know tech ringtone
sorry whatever the bottom line is you
are getting a lot of video but it’s
still going to be small and the growth
rates are great don’t get me wrong but
it’s not even an ideal format to
advertise but we’re all running around
like a few years ago was like imagine if
you’re walking by starbucks and you get
a text message saying listen if that
ever happens I will blow up starbucks I
don’t want to get a text message
everywhere I go so this notion that next
year’s that your video on mobile and
it’s going to be all that shut up it’s
going to be small online video is small
mobile video is going to be even smaller
yes thing I don’t think there’s a people
understand mobile enough to understand
what the year of mobile would actually
entail like well put well but next all
right um death of television I am so
freaking fed up of hearing online media
people like myself say telugu only media
that’s not losing much it first of all
television is stronger than ever yes in
10 years in 20 years and maybe five
years there’s going to be some loss of
revenue you know there’s going to be a
lot of people are not watching as much
TV we get that but this notion that next
year TV is just going to lose somehow 20
billion dollars and that’s all going to
travel to online you’re effing crazy not
going to happen televisions going to be
actually stronger way too much clutter
on Twitter and Facebook advertisers are
going to keep spending a lot of money on
and the reason for that is this notion
of banner blindness that you know you
could see your banner you don’t see your
the banners you don’t see the pre-rolls
whereas if you put a freaking coca-cola
cup on the American Idol table people
talk about that even if they go even if
it’s cynical it’s part of the discussion
it’s there a media planner could say
look same thing with print print took a
long time in in two thousand and I was a
task man we always waited for print to
die and you know it’s still around mind
you with its took 10 15 20 years the
idea was a media planner could open up
and say listen I place my you know ad
for coach or you know Samsonite in this
fricking magazine it’s there don’t fire
me it’s the same thing with TV you could
see the ads where’s online that’s a sea
of clutter and crap and we keep thinking
telchines going to but she’s not bunny
about the online space I just want to
add this is people put by real estate
online and then they argue over the
value or like how many clicks or how
many impressions that God but you
actually know where with TV although you
can say well I saw a physical add up
here but like you you actually don’t
know how many people got up from their
couch went and got a snack during the
commercial break yeah I’m gonna touch on
that an upcoming once all right so cord
cutting is real what do you mean okay so
yes there are a there is a number of
people especially men in that lets say
13 to 24 demographic that are either not
subscribing to cable or cutting their
cable but guess what a lot of those guys
then a few months later are like you
know what I don’t really get much news i
don’t get as much sports i miss HBO i
miss ESPN i miss whatever 17 other
things so i’m going to go back to TV or
i’ll still watch TV in one form or
another so yes the trends are showing
that there’s a percentage growth of cord
cutters or people that don’t subscribe
to cable but again it’s such a fringe
movement it’s almost like saying i won’t
say anything crazy I just it’s happening
but it’s not going to kill television
it’s it’s still a very small phenomena
you know when the cable company will
actually get me back when I could just
watch their stuff online plain and
simple well this is why just a little
tangent you are seeing a dichotomy
between the traditional media companies
like let’s say the foxes and the
Disney’s who really want to you know
therefore the status quo because they’re
making all this money from you know
cable fees carriage fees and all that
and then you are seeing the sort of
blurriness around
access guys verizon comcast and comcast
interestingly is also a media company
now through you know bc and all that
verizon AT&T that the access guys that
want to be more flexible they want to
give more you know freedom to choose and
watch what you want but my point is
cable and television are very strong
it’s if you have money you’re going to
get the attention of content owners and
content owners are not going to just
want to put everything online after
making truck loads of money from cable
so this notion that cord cutting is here
and it’s going to decimate TV give it
five years give it seven years but not
by the way which brings us to your next
aunty prediction apple TV or google TV
chatting over all of these things i
think they’re gonna make a splash tour
not really going to make a big wave i
think over the top connected devices
same thing in five years is going to be
really big it’s sort of it’s the other
flip side of cord cutting any listen I I
risk electrocution every time I consider
getting a set-top the box and start
plugging it away and I’m an online video
expert so average population likes
having a stupid box and just turning on
the TV leaning back I think that’ll be a
generational thing because really you
know right now most consumers grew up
with the television it’s hard for them
to let that go it’s the kids growing up
today who you know are growing up with
tablets and super low yeah wired to
their mobile that might be the ones to
give up I think conventional television
another ambiguous one where’s the ROI we
keep saying you know you gotta show more
return on investment to marketers you
know what the irony is television is
visible but you can’t track the ROI so I
think that it’s very sexy to keep saying
oh my God we’re going to you know i’m
all for accountability and all that eric
schmidt’s as advertising is the last
bastion of accountability in corporate
america listen guys it’s not next year
all of a sudden that ROI is going to be
so important advertisers just want to
make sure that they didn’t burn their
money in the sense that they gave you a
check and you ran the stupid banner
below the fold you know without telling
them they want to make sure that things
are visible it’s more important than the
ROI factor because at the end of the day
all advertising is negative ROI in the
short term reality fair enough i
actually agree um advertising will be
less robotic yeah i mean this is the
notion that you know ad exchanges and ad
networks are adding all this behavior
targeting and people say like oh next
year you’re going to start to go back to
human beings making decisions i would
love
for that to happen I would love for
there to be less you know that’s bundle
audiences and pass it off as Triple A
you know assets that’s all going to
happen and i’ll tell you why
unfortunately it should happen it won’t
happen because you are basically paying
very young media planners less money and
asking them to do to make a lot of
decisions you make a lot decision so for
them if they can go on a dashboard and
say i’m going to check off these seven
audiences on these eight sites boom i’m
gonna go now have a martini and you know
season at that if one of the big
agencies said we want to offer advertise
advertisers better customer service or
better ROI and we’re going to start
getting real human beings to make these
decisions they would be competed
completely out of the marketplace before
they could bring over enough new
business because all it would take is
their main competitor to keep being
robotic keep their costs low inches yep
bring them all right um publishers will
get a clue so what the hell do I mean by
this I can’t believe after the display
ad networks destroyed and decimated the
publishers business by publishers giving
them a backdoor access they said never
again we’re going to go and fight the
display ad networks and will never let
this happen in video uh you know what
the George Bush say fool me once shame
on me fool me twice shame on me whatever
same thing happened that the publishers
let the video ad networks in through the
back door and they basically handed the
market to ad exchanges and display ad
networks and publishers and I mean we’re
I mean I’m not saying we’re any
different or worse I just think
publishers are stupid for letting this
happen again and they have no one to
blame but themselves okay number nine
tablets will blah blah blah yeah I mean
the idea that tablets are going to come
and part the Seas and money is going to
flow into for old media is crazy i
thinkI on winner of one or media Rolling
Stone publisher is right that generally
speaking traditional media companies are
going to overestimate the potential
opportunity of tablets and they will
keep under estimating the threat of the
internet you know and that’s a
combination for disaster but they don’t
get it what baffles me is people don’t
realize that tablets are just like one
other device they’re nothing special
like oh my god we have home computers
that was a huge thing oh my god we have
laptops but none of these actually if in
fact if any of these devices did
anything they rode it you know
businesses that we’re already there all
right um hyper distribution will cure
polio I like this one yeah well
basically we’ve had it’s funny how you
can
sorry I just want to say it’s curious
how you named polio because we beat that
but you never put down like AIDS or so
well because that’s an ongoing struggle
right so well that’s the idea that hyper
distribution we’ve had this love and
hate relationship when you two came
along the embedded video the idea is
what’s happened is basically publishers
who produce content have lost that
environment in which they could sell ads
so you give your video on to other sites
and I think that will continue to be a
really big part but therein lies the
challenge of content you have to let
your content flow and go where the
audiences are but by doing so you dilute
your selling potential and that means
that yes hyper distribution will be
really really key but that means that it
becomes even harder to generate revenue
so it’s like a double-edged sword it’s
not this silver bullet that will allow
producers to make more money it’s
actually going to make it tougher but
nobody comes out and says that they go
out creates wonderful opportunities yes
but it also comes with a lot of threats
okay this one I’m interested to discuss
number 11 the rise of branded content
yeah every year we as producers I mean
we produce largely infotainment pure
content it’s not like a sponsor’s
necessarily paying us although
eventually we will do that and I think
the bottom line is every year we expect
branded content to take off but those
executions are really tough so I think
it will still see pre-rolls kick ass and
branded content will remain like a
fringe thing so weird we have such a
different definition of branded content
you and I you think strictly in terms of
video and you just like I think article
like I think everything like a sponsored
survey on Facebook you know like that
yeah but this is our online video aunty
predictions right right all right a
couple more and we’re done um
consolidation every year we keep I
traveled so much to New York San Fran
and LA and it was for business
development sales corporate development
while I everybody in the industry of
online video is waiting for something to
happen because investors have put in
their money in 2003 2004-2005 for VCS as
much as they say we go along and they
don’t I mean after seven years they want
their money out and frankly there’s way
too much money in the marketplace to
justify the potential exits there’s not
that much revenue yet so every year
everybody’s waiting for the shoe to fall
and for there to be a lot of
consolidation roll-up divestment
whatever this year you would think I
think this one actually might happen
just because a lot of companies are
running out of gas but
the same time why would it happen now it
hasn’t happened the past 34 years so
don’t expect this to happen we can find
ourselves in 12 months saying wow
there’s all these companies that are
sort of running on fumes when is there
going to be a big consolidation okay
last one last one VCS are finally going
to wake up and smell the Java yeah i
mean the notion that you know they like
distribution technology video
advertising and all that makes sense
it’s what they’re do but i actually
think that content has become like
software where it’s like the marginal
production and distribution costs are
zero so once you produce it you can
leverage things like youtube to reduce
your risk of distribution marketing and
you can build a nice business around
that but again i don’t think i know for
a fact that there’s going to be a couple
VCS who are going to launch these
content oriented funds but two does not
really make a massive trend right one of
them is supposed to be up by 11 2012
that january first we’ll see if that’s
the case if they announce it or not so
long story short this is like the
previous one something that is long
overdue for VCS to say ok distribution
you got to pick one come you got to
invest in a thousand companies for one
of them to be really successful and it
consider that VCS in the last decade
have returned one percent on an annual
basis for the amount of risk that they
take you would think hey something is
broken let’s start a lesson in content
but I’ve been saying that since 2006 and
I’ve been wrong and others have been too
so that’s probably anti prediction
number 13 and it’s funny I’m going to be
really cynical about human beings in
general here it’s everyone is operating
under the assumption that VCS have to
actually bring back a return something
greater than let’s say one percent
really what it comes down to is vc’s you
just have to keep their wine stellar
stock stock well and you said it not me
ok now the vc’s do make money and in
sort of management administration fees
and as much as they want the home run
the reality is the funny thing about VCS
I mean finish off on this vc’s remind me
of you know the analogy of you only have
to outrun let’s say you’re in a forest
and there’s a bear chasing you you only
got outrun you I got outrun you because
the bear will eat you not the bear and
it’s the same thing we seized vc’s when
I talk to them they’re like I other VCS
are crazy they’re stupid they don’t know
what they’re doing there’s too many VCS
and I almost want to go you know there’s
a few that are rock stars great have the
returns to prove it but I’m like well
what have you done in the last 10 years
you basically raised all this money from
pension funds in whatever you haven’t
shown any return your
on the fund so it’s like you’re cynical
about your peers but I’m cynical about
you again so that’s been my anti
predictions hopefully I’m wrong and all
these 13 become true and that means like
we’re all awash in cash but likely you
know where this is going not going to
happen thank you for watching see you
next week same time same place nothing
but good times 22
week’s show we’re going to talk about
2012 predictions that you’re going to
deliver and I’m gonna give you guys my
auntie prediction I can’t believe you
talked me into this i hate predictions
everyone just uses it an excuse to get
some attention they run their mouths off
no one’s ever right I don’t even have
confidence in my own but that’s great
that’s what you want to hear make sure
why don’t listen to me you watch in fact
you should just click the back button
now alright um I got a few so what I got
three here in total first I think Amazon
is actually going to reach its tentacles
a lot further and I know that sounds
flimsy but they have their tentacles and
everything right now but I think they’re
going to become a household name more
they’re going to start to get a lot more
brand recognition for your you know
doing things like video and cloud and
all that kind of stuff so that is a
flimsy but ok fair enough pretty it’s
gonna probably save actually that when I
go the other way um is the sky blue as
well only on a sunny day the other one
and this is more of a hope rather than a
prediction but a Google will quietly
kill off Google Plus that’s bold I don’t
think so but ok maybe I don’t think
within a year but these guys are sitting
on like 40 billion dollars of cash
they’re just gonna throw cash at
everything until something kills
facebook which way should really throw
cash it’s something that works because
nothing yeah anyways which brings me to
my next prediction what you just said I
think Facebook might actually hit a
billion users in 2012 in 2012 well what
they went from like five to eight
hundred million in 2011 so I think you
know yeah that’s possible i mean it’s i
think that that I think the IPO will
allow them to open up a lot of markets
get a lot of press etc etc ok so those
are your three I don’t just as a quick
aside I think they’re going to eat into
Google’s share as a marketing tool
Google is huge on AdWords right now
facebook is becoming a much more viable
advertising and marketing platform
everything from there adds to their
pages to their data mining I think
they’re gonna you’re going to start
seeing people spending a little bit less
on clicks from google and a little bit
more on clicks like you’re actually
going to see some budget shift maybe not
a lot but it’ll be noticeable alright so
bye aunty predictions you could read
them and then all sort of chimed in to
make
this less you know ash going crazy on
our ranch could you be any more
ambiguous we will have standards and
definition okay so this is an online
video anti prediction each year we say
how an online video we don’t know what a
view is and we don’t know if it’s
click-through rates the CTR that matters
or whatever every year we say dishes the
urine my good friend Paul come tonus of
digitized said this is the year 2012 I
think he’s wrong I think everybody is
crazy we’re going to finally start to
openly admit that we lack definitions
and we lack standards but no way is 2012
where we all get together kumbaya hold
hands and say Tata this is what defines
a view it is a you know blah blah blah
blah it’s not gonna happen it will
probably never happen so don’t count on
that all right okay really the year of
mobile every year isn’t like 2005 oh
it’s in 1994 you know every year is just
used a year of mobile listen Mobile’s
here granted it’s been a lot of text and
images and you know back in the day
screen savers or you know tech ringtone
sorry whatever the bottom line is you
are getting a lot of video but it’s
still going to be small and the growth
rates are great don’t get me wrong but
it’s not even an ideal format to
advertise but we’re all running around
like a few years ago was like imagine if
you’re walking by starbucks and you get
a text message saying listen if that
ever happens I will blow up starbucks I
don’t want to get a text message
everywhere I go so this notion that next
year’s that your video on mobile and
it’s going to be all that shut up it’s
going to be small online video is small
mobile video is going to be even smaller
yes thing I don’t think there’s a people
understand mobile enough to understand
what the year of mobile would actually
entail like well put well but next all
right um death of television I am so
freaking fed up of hearing online media
people like myself say telugu only media
that’s not losing much it first of all
television is stronger than ever yes in
10 years in 20 years and maybe five
years there’s going to be some loss of
revenue you know there’s going to be a
lot of people are not watching as much
TV we get that but this notion that next
year TV is just going to lose somehow 20
billion dollars and that’s all going to
travel to online you’re effing crazy not
going to happen televisions going to be
actually stronger way too much clutter
on Twitter and Facebook advertisers are
going to keep spending a lot of money on
and the reason for that is this notion
of banner blindness that you know you
could see your banner you don’t see your
the banners you don’t see the pre-rolls
whereas if you put a freaking coca-cola
cup on the American Idol table people
talk about that even if they go even if
it’s cynical it’s part of the discussion
it’s there a media planner could say
look same thing with print print took a
long time in in two thousand and I was a
task man we always waited for print to
die and you know it’s still around mind
you with its took 10 15 20 years the
idea was a media planner could open up
and say listen I place my you know ad
for coach or you know Samsonite in this
fricking magazine it’s there don’t fire
me it’s the same thing with TV you could
see the ads where’s online that’s a sea
of clutter and crap and we keep thinking
telchines going to but she’s not bunny
about the online space I just want to
add this is people put by real estate
online and then they argue over the
value or like how many clicks or how
many impressions that God but you
actually know where with TV although you
can say well I saw a physical add up
here but like you you actually don’t
know how many people got up from their
couch went and got a snack during the
commercial break yeah I’m gonna touch on
that an upcoming once all right so cord
cutting is real what do you mean okay so
yes there are a there is a number of
people especially men in that lets say
13 to 24 demographic that are either not
subscribing to cable or cutting their
cable but guess what a lot of those guys
then a few months later are like you
know what I don’t really get much news i
don’t get as much sports i miss HBO i
miss ESPN i miss whatever 17 other
things so i’m going to go back to TV or
i’ll still watch TV in one form or
another so yes the trends are showing
that there’s a percentage growth of cord
cutters or people that don’t subscribe
to cable but again it’s such a fringe
movement it’s almost like saying i won’t
say anything crazy I just it’s happening
but it’s not going to kill television
it’s it’s still a very small phenomena
you know when the cable company will
actually get me back when I could just
watch their stuff online plain and
simple well this is why just a little
tangent you are seeing a dichotomy
between the traditional media companies
like let’s say the foxes and the
Disney’s who really want to you know
therefore the status quo because they’re
making all this money from you know
cable fees carriage fees and all that
and then you are seeing the sort of
blurriness around
access guys verizon comcast and comcast
interestingly is also a media company
now through you know bc and all that
verizon AT&T that the access guys that
want to be more flexible they want to
give more you know freedom to choose and
watch what you want but my point is
cable and television are very strong
it’s if you have money you’re going to
get the attention of content owners and
content owners are not going to just
want to put everything online after
making truck loads of money from cable
so this notion that cord cutting is here
and it’s going to decimate TV give it
five years give it seven years but not
by the way which brings us to your next
aunty prediction apple TV or google TV
chatting over all of these things i
think they’re gonna make a splash tour
not really going to make a big wave i
think over the top connected devices
same thing in five years is going to be
really big it’s sort of it’s the other
flip side of cord cutting any listen I I
risk electrocution every time I consider
getting a set-top the box and start
plugging it away and I’m an online video
expert so average population likes
having a stupid box and just turning on
the TV leaning back I think that’ll be a
generational thing because really you
know right now most consumers grew up
with the television it’s hard for them
to let that go it’s the kids growing up
today who you know are growing up with
tablets and super low yeah wired to
their mobile that might be the ones to
give up I think conventional television
another ambiguous one where’s the ROI we
keep saying you know you gotta show more
return on investment to marketers you
know what the irony is television is
visible but you can’t track the ROI so I
think that it’s very sexy to keep saying
oh my God we’re going to you know i’m
all for accountability and all that eric
schmidt’s as advertising is the last
bastion of accountability in corporate
america listen guys it’s not next year
all of a sudden that ROI is going to be
so important advertisers just want to
make sure that they didn’t burn their
money in the sense that they gave you a
check and you ran the stupid banner
below the fold you know without telling
them they want to make sure that things
are visible it’s more important than the
ROI factor because at the end of the day
all advertising is negative ROI in the
short term reality fair enough i
actually agree um advertising will be
less robotic yeah i mean this is the
notion that you know ad exchanges and ad
networks are adding all this behavior
targeting and people say like oh next
year you’re going to start to go back to
human beings making decisions i would
love
for that to happen I would love for
there to be less you know that’s bundle
audiences and pass it off as Triple A
you know assets that’s all going to
happen and i’ll tell you why
unfortunately it should happen it won’t
happen because you are basically paying
very young media planners less money and
asking them to do to make a lot of
decisions you make a lot decision so for
them if they can go on a dashboard and
say i’m going to check off these seven
audiences on these eight sites boom i’m
gonna go now have a martini and you know
season at that if one of the big
agencies said we want to offer advertise
advertisers better customer service or
better ROI and we’re going to start
getting real human beings to make these
decisions they would be competed
completely out of the marketplace before
they could bring over enough new
business because all it would take is
their main competitor to keep being
robotic keep their costs low inches yep
bring them all right um publishers will
get a clue so what the hell do I mean by
this I can’t believe after the display
ad networks destroyed and decimated the
publishers business by publishers giving
them a backdoor access they said never
again we’re going to go and fight the
display ad networks and will never let
this happen in video uh you know what
the George Bush say fool me once shame
on me fool me twice shame on me whatever
same thing happened that the publishers
let the video ad networks in through the
back door and they basically handed the
market to ad exchanges and display ad
networks and publishers and I mean we’re
I mean I’m not saying we’re any
different or worse I just think
publishers are stupid for letting this
happen again and they have no one to
blame but themselves okay number nine
tablets will blah blah blah yeah I mean
the idea that tablets are going to come
and part the Seas and money is going to
flow into for old media is crazy i
thinkI on winner of one or media Rolling
Stone publisher is right that generally
speaking traditional media companies are
going to overestimate the potential
opportunity of tablets and they will
keep under estimating the threat of the
internet you know and that’s a
combination for disaster but they don’t
get it what baffles me is people don’t
realize that tablets are just like one
other device they’re nothing special
like oh my god we have home computers
that was a huge thing oh my god we have
laptops but none of these actually if in
fact if any of these devices did
anything they rode it you know
businesses that we’re already there all
right um hyper distribution will cure
polio I like this one yeah well
basically we’ve had it’s funny how you
can
sorry I just want to say it’s curious
how you named polio because we beat that
but you never put down like AIDS or so
well because that’s an ongoing struggle
right so well that’s the idea that hyper
distribution we’ve had this love and
hate relationship when you two came
along the embedded video the idea is
what’s happened is basically publishers
who produce content have lost that
environment in which they could sell ads
so you give your video on to other sites
and I think that will continue to be a
really big part but therein lies the
challenge of content you have to let
your content flow and go where the
audiences are but by doing so you dilute
your selling potential and that means
that yes hyper distribution will be
really really key but that means that it
becomes even harder to generate revenue
so it’s like a double-edged sword it’s
not this silver bullet that will allow
producers to make more money it’s
actually going to make it tougher but
nobody comes out and says that they go
out creates wonderful opportunities yes
but it also comes with a lot of threats
okay this one I’m interested to discuss
number 11 the rise of branded content
yeah every year we as producers I mean
we produce largely infotainment pure
content it’s not like a sponsor’s
necessarily paying us although
eventually we will do that and I think
the bottom line is every year we expect
branded content to take off but those
executions are really tough so I think
it will still see pre-rolls kick ass and
branded content will remain like a
fringe thing so weird we have such a
different definition of branded content
you and I you think strictly in terms of
video and you just like I think article
like I think everything like a sponsored
survey on Facebook you know like that
yeah but this is our online video aunty
predictions right right all right a
couple more and we’re done um
consolidation every year we keep I
traveled so much to New York San Fran
and LA and it was for business
development sales corporate development
while I everybody in the industry of
online video is waiting for something to
happen because investors have put in
their money in 2003 2004-2005 for VCS as
much as they say we go along and they
don’t I mean after seven years they want
their money out and frankly there’s way
too much money in the marketplace to
justify the potential exits there’s not
that much revenue yet so every year
everybody’s waiting for the shoe to fall
and for there to be a lot of
consolidation roll-up divestment
whatever this year you would think I
think this one actually might happen
just because a lot of companies are
running out of gas but
the same time why would it happen now it
hasn’t happened the past 34 years so
don’t expect this to happen we can find
ourselves in 12 months saying wow
there’s all these companies that are
sort of running on fumes when is there
going to be a big consolidation okay
last one last one VCS are finally going
to wake up and smell the Java yeah i
mean the notion that you know they like
distribution technology video
advertising and all that makes sense
it’s what they’re do but i actually
think that content has become like
software where it’s like the marginal
production and distribution costs are
zero so once you produce it you can
leverage things like youtube to reduce
your risk of distribution marketing and
you can build a nice business around
that but again i don’t think i know for
a fact that there’s going to be a couple
VCS who are going to launch these
content oriented funds but two does not
really make a massive trend right one of
them is supposed to be up by 11 2012
that january first we’ll see if that’s
the case if they announce it or not so
long story short this is like the
previous one something that is long
overdue for VCS to say ok distribution
you got to pick one come you got to
invest in a thousand companies for one
of them to be really successful and it
consider that VCS in the last decade
have returned one percent on an annual
basis for the amount of risk that they
take you would think hey something is
broken let’s start a lesson in content
but I’ve been saying that since 2006 and
I’ve been wrong and others have been too
so that’s probably anti prediction
number 13 and it’s funny I’m going to be
really cynical about human beings in
general here it’s everyone is operating
under the assumption that VCS have to
actually bring back a return something
greater than let’s say one percent
really what it comes down to is vc’s you
just have to keep their wine stellar
stock stock well and you said it not me
ok now the vc’s do make money and in
sort of management administration fees
and as much as they want the home run
the reality is the funny thing about VCS
I mean finish off on this vc’s remind me
of you know the analogy of you only have
to outrun let’s say you’re in a forest
and there’s a bear chasing you you only
got outrun you I got outrun you because
the bear will eat you not the bear and
it’s the same thing we seized vc’s when
I talk to them they’re like I other VCS
are crazy they’re stupid they don’t know
what they’re doing there’s too many VCS
and I almost want to go you know there’s
a few that are rock stars great have the
returns to prove it but I’m like well
what have you done in the last 10 years
you basically raised all this money from
pension funds in whatever you haven’t
shown any return your
on the fund so it’s like you’re cynical
about your peers but I’m cynical about
you again so that’s been my anti
predictions hopefully I’m wrong and all
these 13 become true and that means like
we’re all awash in cash but likely you
know where this is going not going to
happen thank you for watching see you
next week same time same place nothing
but good times 22
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