Press "Enter" to skip to content

The Problem with Payback | Paul Lupinacci | TEDxGuelphU


a few years ago I was telling my friend

Patrick that I was thinking of buying a

new car and I told them about some of

the features that I was considering like

leather seats premium sound system and

navigation and he encouraged me to get

these features he said something about

how they would serve me well in my

impending midlife crisis so later in the

same conversation I told Patrick that I

was that one of the cars I was thinking

of it was an electric vehicle but this

time he asked me what would be the

payback for the extra cost of electric

over gasoline in other words how long

until the savings in gas equaled the

extra cost of the electric car and that

got me thinking well I you know I

thought why does why do we apply

financial metrics to some edge to some

purchases but not others like why didn’t

he ask me about the payback for the

leather seats and it seems to me that

this often happens with purchases that

have some environmental impact and

that’s when I realized that I have a

problem with payback

you see payback measures the benefit for

the purchaser only but what about the

rest of us like in the case of an

electric vehicle there are benefits like

reduce greenhouse gas emissions and

improved air quality and they benefit

everybody not just the purchaser so that

got me thinking this is kind of like a

pay forward because these are benefits

that apply to all of us long into the

future

now both pay back and pay forward are

important pay back provides the

financial justification for the purchase

but pay forward takes into account the

benefits for all of us into the future

and I think there’s lots of examples of

purchases

that provide both the financial payback

and environmental pay forward and I’d

like to tell you about three projects

that I’ve done over the past 15 years

that have turned out to be both

financially and environmentally

rewarding and I kind of think of these

projects like bricks you know on their

own they don’t actually accomplish much

but as you’ll see when put together they

actually have turned into building

something pretty substantial so the

first project was solar pool heating

solar pool heater that was starting to

fail so I took that opportunity to

investigate solar pool heating and if

you’re not familiar with it the way

solar pool heating it through the

electric heater it pumps it up to the

roof and there’s tubes that run that the

water runs through the Sun you know

absorbs the energy from the Sun and

heats up the water it’s a great system

and on a sunny day the pool can rise in

temperature by up to 10 degrees Celsius

and it’s all free now the problem with

solar pool heating solar but the

operating cost for solar pool heated

per year so from a payback standpoint

that was six point two years and from a

pay forward the energy savings were

about four thousand kilowatt hours per

year and the that means that the

associated greenhouse gas emissions that

were saved were about 1600 kilograms per

year so fast forward a couple years and

in 2005 we decided to add on to our

house and in doing so we were going to

exceed the capacity of our heating and

cooling system so this gave me an

opportunity to investigate alternatives

and I looked into geothermal geothermal

or ground source if you’re not familiar

with it the way it works is

the the temperature of the ground about

two meters below the surface is a

constant 12 degrees Celsius and the

great thing about 12 degrees Celsius is

that on a hot summer day 12 degrees

feels pretty cool and on a cold winter

day 12 degrees feels pretty warm so what

they do is they dig a trench they lay

down tube and they run fluid through it

and it takes advantage of that

difference in temperature to heat and

cool the house it’s a very very

efficient system the problem is it’s

expensive for the upfront investment and

in this case the extra cost was $13,000

but the operating cost is very low so it

saves me $1,700 a year in energy and so

the payback turns out to be seven point

seven years and from a pay forward

standpoint the energy savings were 11

just a little over 11,000 kilowatt hours

that’s about a quarter of my energy bill

was reduced just by putting in

geothermal and the Associated greenhouse

gas reductions were over 4,600 kilograms

that’s the equivalent of taking one car

off the road so we were pretty happy

with that and fast forward a few years

more and in 2014 I actually did buy that

electric vehicle and I did get the

leather seats and all the other stuff

that Patrick suggested and in 2015 the

Ontario government had the micro Fit

program and that was a program where

they would commit to a long term 20-year

contract to buy power that anybody

produced using a solar installation so

we went ahead and we put in a 10

kilowatt rooftop solar panels and the

whole installation the cost for that was

$29,000 now that system generates 4,500

dollars per year so the payback is six

point four years the pay forward because

it generates 11,500 kilowatts a year of

energy and it the associated reductions

for greenhouse gases were four

thousand six hundred kilograms that’s

like taking another vehicle off the road

so in summary and there’s a lot of

numbers on this chart but really just if

you think of the bottom line these three

projects combined result in taking

eleven thousand kilograms a year of

greenhouse gases were that we’re not

producing and the total payback for all

three of those projects is six point

seven years now six point seven is not a

great payback it’s okay but it’s not

great but the point is we didn’t make

our decision based solely on the payback

we took into account those other

benefits like the environmental

improvements and all of those things

that pay forward and we balanced the two

of those and decided that the

combination was was the right thing to

do and made us want to proceed so here’s

a here’s a graph of our energy

consumption over the last 15 years Nick

said I was an engineer so I like to

measure things so you get the sense of

all this

so I’ve superimposed some of the key

milestones along the way and you’ll see

that starting from the left-hand side

you know in 2004 that was our first year

of full solar pool heating and then we

start building that house addition and

we start using more and more energy

because of that and then we put in

geothermal in 2007 is the first full

year of geothermal and that’s that

dramatic drop in energy consumption

that’s about a 25% drop in my energy

consumption and then we carry on pretty

flat for a number of years I buy the

electric vehicle at the end of 2014

because we charge it at home at night

the consumption starts to go up again

and then in 2015 we put in solar and so

you see that other big drop in our net

energy consumption another 25% drop in

energy consumption now compare that to

these gray bars and the gray bars are

what my energy consumption would have

been

if I hadn’t done these three projects

and you see some pretty big differences

there that by the end of it by the end

of 2017 my energy consumption is about

half of what it would have been had I

not done those things so and that’s the

energy savings as well as all of the

associated greenhouse gas and an

environmental benefits so that’s the pay

forward and you know now you see what I

mean when I say that you know those

individual projects they didn’t sound

too good but when you look at it over

time and you look at the combined effort

these are those are the bricks that I

was talking about that ended up building

something I think pretty substantial so

what’s the next project for me well

we’re starting to investigate energy

storage for the home so this would be a

residential sized battery that we would

use as backup I could replace something

like aged diesel generator in case we

ever lose power but it can also be

something that we would charge with

solar power or charge up using really

low cost power in the off-peak times and

then using that power in high peak times

where the power is more expensive so we

would save a fair amount of money but

I’m still calculating the payback and of

so what does this mean for all of us

well I know not everybody can you know

has the room to put in geothermal or

wants to spend the money upfront for

some of these things but I do think

there’s some important lessons and

sometimes some of these environmental

things can seem daunting you know that

the problems are so big what can one

person do but I do think there are some

things that we can do first of all clean

technology is advancing very quickly and

the paybacks and the pay forwards are

improving so rapidly all the time so I

encourage you to think about these

things you know do the calculations and

maybe you’ve thought about them a few

years ago but revisit them because

everything is improving very very

quickly

second if you notice two of my projects

were based were driven by replacement

decisions so my pool heater died so I

had to do something or we built onto the

house and I had to replace the heating

cooling system so it’s easy to you know

nobody’s going to you know take out a

perfectly good piece of equipment just

to put in something that’s a little more

efficient but when you have to make a

change that’s when you can make the

greatest impact so even though it’s a

little more time-consuming it requires a

little more effort to do the research

find out what the alternatives are of

course calculate the payback and the pay

forward that’s when you can really make

a difference another lesson I think is

to pay attention to how we talk about

payback and financial returns you know

when when we talk about payback we talk

about how long how long until the

savings equal the extra cost but that

kind of implies that the benefits end

once the payback has been achieved but

that’s not the case at all those those

savings continue long into the future in

the case of my projects already they’ve

generated over thirty five thousand

dollars of savings so instead of

thinking about how long until we achieve

the payback we should think about how

much the savings are going to be over

the lifetime of that piece of equipment

or that asset if we do that then our

mindset will probably be more more

positive towards that purchase and

finally if you’re talking to somebody

and they’re talking and they’re

considering you know hybrid or electric

vehicle or some kind of a clean

technology decision you know by all

means ask them about the payback but

also ask them about the pay forward get

them thinking about the benefits not

just to themselves but to everybody else

and see if you can get them to take both

pay back and pay forward into

consideration when they make their

decision because if they do that every

time that happens that’s one more brick

that gets put to words building a better

world thank you [Applause]

Please follow and like us: