that’s it you have one year to unite the
country and lead us forward you think
you’ve done this before
you’ve led a business you created a
campaign and beat the odds but I can
assure you that nothing will prepare you
for the job you are about to begin
Lyndon Johnson president 50 years ago
said at best you have one year before
the Congress stops thinking about you
and starts thinking about their own
reelection you’re taking over the
largest corporation in the world four
million employees 1.5 million men and
women in uniform but don’t trust me
trust the man who preceded Johnson who
was president when you were in high
school I would say that the problems are
more difficult than I imagined them to
be their responsibilities placed in the
United States are greater than I
imagined them them to be and there are
greater limitations upon our ability to
bring about a favorable result than I
had imagined them to be the problems are
greater the responsibilities are greater
and your power is more limited than you
think what are the dimensions of your
power as you try to lead the country and
unify us as you try to live up that vote
of confidence that President Obama gave
to you yesterday there are five
dimensions of presidential power things
that you can control I’m going to walk
through the lessons of history that my
colleagues and I at the Miller center
had been working on based on the work
that we do in recording the oral
histories of presidents and listening to
the private recordings of President
Kennedy Johnson and Nixon the first and
most important are the people that
surround you
personnel this gentleman’s name is Al
Haig on paper he was a spectacularly
well-qualified Secretary of State a
four-star general who had already served
as White House chief of staff under
Gerald Ford this photograph was taken on
May 30th President Reagan’s 69th day in
office President Reagan was at George
Washington Hospital George Washington
University Hospital he had just been
shot in the confusion that followed at
the White House Al Haig took the podium
and said that at this moment I am in
control here at the White House there’s
a problem the Secretary of State is not
in control the Vice President the United
States says he went on to clarify that
but the damage had already been done and
what that said was that this man really
wanted to be President of the United
States and thought himself capable of
doing that there’s another model as you
build your national security team easily
the biggest responsibility you have in
the days ahead and that’s this gentleman
sandy Berger he was the national
President Clinton offered him the jobs
and he said no he served this deputy
national security adviser for four years
and then successfully for four more
years served as national security
adviser when President Clinton didn’t
have a strategic vision on an issue he
turned to sandy Berger who quietly
whispered in his ear and never took
credit for it okay you’ve put your team
together now you have to have a process
who’s in charge how does it work you can
put the best team in the world together
and they can still screw things up this
is George HW Bush and his national
security team he was on paper the most
qualified person to take the job in the
history of the country he had been vice
president for eight years he had been
ambassador to the United Nations
ambassador to China
and head of the Republican National
Party his team was also exceptional
James Baker the man sitting to his left
had already been Secretary of the
Treasury and White House chief of staff
he was now the Secretary of State Dick
Cheney had already been White House
chief of staff and a senior member of
Congress he was now the secretary of
defense Brent Scowcroft had already been
national security adviser he came back
as national security adviser : Powell a
four-star general John Sununu the chief
of staff who had been a governor
presented with a crisis on October 1st
1989 about 250 days into office they
failed the crisis was in Panama where
the US had very important security
concerns because we controlled the
Panama Canal or had military
installations there the head of Panama
was a dictator named Manuel Noriega who
we already were trying to get out of
power because we had a federal
indictment against him on drug
trafficking charges one of general
Noriega x’ lieutenants let the United
States know that he was going to try to
over overthrow him something that we
seem to have been calling for yet this
team didn’t respond with clarity
different members of the team had
different responses and as the coup
unfolded we not only failed to achieve
the the priority which was getting
Manuel Noriega out of power but sent
uncertainty to our allies and partners
around the world for what we stood for
but they learned from that mistake and
it was critical that they did so because
less than two months later this happened
the Berlin Wall fell and the team having
to face an internal crisis in another
country learned from their mistakes they
consulted amongst one another they made
no public statements and they worked
with allies and partners including in
Russia to help bring to a peaceful
resolution the Cold War from failure you
can have success but
have to have a sound process you also
have to know your priorities it’s
interesting to bring priorities after
personnel and process but unless you
have people you trust you can’t achieve
remember why you got elected you were
elected to bring economic growth back to
America so is Bill Clinton the man whose
wife you just defeated these two
gentlemen are George Stephanopoulos and
Jim Carville they famously coined the
phrase for then governor Clinton it’s
the economy stupid and that’s how he won
office they campaigned relentlessly for
it on that topic for a year and they
were preparing an agenda to come into
office to follow through on that
priority yet in President Clinton’s
first press conference he chose to focus
on an issue that was not part of his his
election strategy it was an issue he had
raised during the campaign but it was
not ultimately why he got elected and
the issue was bringing gays to the
military
President Clinton famously said everyone
should be able to serve but the problem
was that because that was not his
campaign priority and his governing
priority he had not assembled the team
and he had not assembled a process to
carry through on that priority and he
spent the first nine months in office
trying to untangle a mess that he
stepped into because he had lost sight
of why he had been elected that speaks
to the next challenge here is an example
of how you can succeed in your priority
and that’s George W Bush a man that you
have run against as a Republican this is
a day that very few people will forget
if you remember this photo it was when
Andy card his chief of staff was telling
President Bush that America was under
attack two planes had just flown into
the World Trade Center in New York and
President Bush was speaking at a school
in Florida up till this point that was
not his priority his priority was
compassionate conservatism in particular
reform
America’s schools that’s why he was
speaking to death school in Florida and
despite the crisis of 9/11 despite
having to respond to that he never lost
sight of his priority in fact he started
working on it now in the days after he
was elected he pulled the gentlemen
behind him Democratic and Republican
members of Congress to the White House
and started talking to them about how
they were gonna work together to pass
legislation to start fixing America’s
school and within one year he had
accomplished No Child Left Behind what
both of these stories the failure of the
Clinton administration and the success
of the Bush administration tell us is
once you’ve identified your priority
focus on the politics bring together
members of Congress from both parties to
solve the challenge you have just been
elected with big majorities in the House
of Representatives and a narrower
majority in the Senate don’t let that
make you believe that this is going to
be easy in this photo we see Jimmy
Carter and Tip O’Neill Jimmy Carter told
the Miller center in his oral history my
biggest mistake was by being elected
without the support and help of people
in Congress I could do this by myself I
didn’t have those relationships and I
didn’t have a strategy for how to pull
them together and he had different views
on listen to the issues jobs energy
reform tax reform he had different views
than Tip O’Neill on that subject a
member of his own party who headed the
House of Representatives the Speaker of
the House and on those three main
challenges President Carter failed in
his first year to accomplish what he
wanted to and was limited in the years
after that there is a model for success
which is Lyndon Johnson who famously
said you have one year this is the
signing of the Civil Rights Act in 1964
less than one year after President
Kennedy was assassinated Lyndon Johnson
worked with men
of Congress from both houses and both
political parties and put together a
coalition to pass one of the most
significant laws in American history
finally there is the personal nothing
has prepared you for the previous four
dimensions of power but I can assure you
nothing will prepare you for the
scrutiny that you are about to have cast
upon you every waking moment whether in
public or in private people will
scrutinize every move you make every
decision you make and they will talk
about it no meeting is private
everything is discussed and not just
what is what happens in what you say
you mr. president-elect are good at
branding every article of clothing you
wear every gesture you make will be
scrutinized for what it says what it
communicates in this picture President
Clinton and his Vice President Al Gore
are wearing a hat that says one thing a
shirt that says another thing and
President Clinton has his iconic
McDonald’s cup that says the third thing
and of course on Saturday Night Live
they get it and they’ve gotten you
already and they’re gonna continue to
focus and they’ll get it again for those
of you that don’t remember Saturday
Night Live from 24 years ago that that
was the characterization of Bill Clinton
notice he has his Georgetown hat his
Arizona is Arkansas sweatshirt on
there’s another model a president that
you seemed to revere President Reagan
noticed the message is clear and direct
and simple he’s not just the kind of
president that he wants to be he’s the
kind of president that he thinks all
Americans want to have but there’s
another dimension of the personal that
is is important it’s not just what you
say but how you communicate and listen
and Thomas Jefferson set this standards
this is Thomas Jefferson’s dining room
at Monticello we know from history that
had a similar dining room at the White
House and he became famous in a very
tense political time in bringing people
around the table from his party from the
other party and then eventually both
parties together to listen to what was
on their mind and to develop ideas
together we’ve talked about these five
dimensions of power but remember power
is not authority power is what you have
control over authority and legitimacy
comes from what other people have to say
let’s talk about success there are two
models for success success in one year
passing your agenda like Lyndon Johnson
said and success in the four years of
your presidency
success in one year is Lyndon Johnson’s
second first year after winning
re-election in 1964 he passed massive
legislation in 1965 the Voting Rights
Act Medicare and Medicaid an immigration
bill that’s him at the Statue of Liberty
pushing that forward he knew that he had
limited political time but he also made
a mistake because after that he never
again passed a significant piece of
legislation with either house of
Congress this is President Obama signing
the Affordable Care Act into law a
significant first-year accomplishment
but it did not lead to subsequent
accomplishments after that after he
passed a law with almost exclusive with
exclusively Democratic support
Republicans decided that they weren’t
going to work with him there’s a
different model which was President
Clinton’s model this is President
Clinton signing into law nafta a treaty
you ran against but notice who’s
standing behind him Republican and
Democratic members of Congress former
president’s Republican and Democratic
mr. president-elect if you are going to
take on trade as an issue you have to
work with people from both parties
including your predecessor if you’re
want to leave you with one thought back
to Thomas Jefferson when Thomas
Jefferson one the famous election of
1800 a revolution he called it and took
power in 1801 it was the first transfer
of power from one party to another ever
in human history there was fear in the
United States the French Revolution had
happened just a few years before that
was a transfer of power from one party
to another but it was not peaceful and
Jefferson had praised that revolution
and the Federalists were concerned that
Jefferson woods going to be an American
Jacobin that he was going to start
persecuting his enemies Jefferson and
his Republican allies feared but the
Federalists were not going to give up
power
that they were elitists that they only
cared about international business that
they didn’t care about the American
people and everyone feared we were going
to be drawn into a war between France
and Britain Jefferson immediately came
out in his first address to the nation
and said we are all Federalists we are
all Republicans he built a team he built
a process he established his priorities
one of which was staying out of the war
in Europe and creating a great country
he made America great the first time
with the Louisiana Purchase he got the
politics right and he carried himself
with dignity mr. president-elect good
luck
the work that you all are doing at the
Miller center is fantastic really great
just so I’ve got a quick question
because I think the audience might want
to know this now most of us were
surprised by the results of this
election you’ve been working on this
talk for a long time
how would this talk have been different
would it have been different well we
would have started with a different
picture the takeoff and the landing
would have been different I think had it
been president-elect Clinton the great
fear there actually it was that she
thinks she’s done the job before I think
and the landing is different as well as
not a transfer of power from one party
to the other
how would she had separated herself and
distinguished herself from the party
before her and the challenge of winning
two terms from the same party twice
hasn’t happened since Jefferson Madison
and Monroe it’s a moment of change in
the country I think what we have found
in our conversations with the Trump
transition which has been in formation
for two or three months is that they’re
aware of how the transition team is
aware of how complex the challenges are
and that they’re going to have to get up
to speed very quickly and I think we all
have a stake in getting that right well
thanks for your help making it happen [Applause]