the world is changing the world is
changing really fast and in particular
right now the world of energy is
changing really fast too we’re doing a
whole range of things differently one of
the things is we’re being more energy
energy-efficient we’re doing more with
less we’re producing more goods with
less energy we’re changing how we source
energy we’re getting energy from new
places we’re getting energy from
renewable places and that’s fantastic as
well because the consequence of that is
its impact on co2 emissions and global
warming but there’s even more than that
because all of this new technology is
arriving in a way that changes how we
work all of this new energy is being
built faster and the products that use
them are being built faster we all know
that the world is changing we can feel
it we can see it one of the paps best
icons for global change is this little
device here there’s not too many of you
in the audience there will be a few that
still have a flip phone there will be
nobody in this audience that’s carrying
a landline copper network with them the
rate of change is extraordinary and one
of the other things that this represents
is another word called convergence which
represents many technologies arriving in
one place and if we actually opened up
the phone I can go often booked a hotel
I can get my rideshare I can check my
bank account I can download an image off
the web
I can tweet about this event I can play
pokemon go it might be time to stop
doing that ah I can make a phone call
who’d have imagined if we went back to
1980 and added up every device and if it
was possible to do worked out what it
would have cost us to do the number
would come up to be a million bucks
there’s that much technology on this
thousand dollar phone that in 1980 it
would have been worth a million dollars
that’s extraordinary that’s a
representation of change and
it’s the same level of change right now
that we’re seeing come to energy and
move through energy how can we be sure
that the future is arriving that we can
see this rate of change and we know from
looking at all the technologies of the
past that that rate of change early on
goes slow but once it starts to take it
goes fast and the blue line on this
graph shows the adoption rate of
technology and if we add all the blue
line up we make it to the yellow line
the yellow line shows us that level of
consumption that level adoption and with
every new technology there’s always an
exit who’s got their flip phones tool
let me see the hands there’s a couple of
hands cool ok that’s expected because
some of that technology carries forward
and just because we still we’ve still
got it today doesn’t mean it’ll be still
here tomorrow this century is coming
faster than technology did in the last
century and also the technology were
using is changing how can we be sure
let’s have a look at renewable energy
and where are at today in 2017 this is a
graph of real data the blue line is the
uptake of wind on the planet looks
enormous it’s a wonderful curve it’s
going up through the roof and a bit
later solar starts to join in and
actually if you look at that line
particularly well you’ll notice that
Solar is going faster the wind wind was
fast Solar is faster and if we start to
project into the future with an
ambitious view of where we expect this
new technology to be then we start to
see changes
first of all wind really seemed to be
fast on that last graph but when we put
it in context to the future we’re only
just getting started and what we
discover is that that use of storage
which we all know is important for
renewable energy is starting to also
take root and see rapid change is rapid
change that possible well the earlier
graph we showed says that’s the way it
always happens it starts slow and then
it goes fast the next five years will
always be faster than the last 50 that’s
extraordinary how does that happen as we
produce more volume we reduce costs the
red bar is simply the
using cost of solar on the planet with
some forecasts going forward and with
the increasing volume of solar on the
planet in yellow with the forecast going
forward as we reduce cost we can
increase volume that’s really important
we build things for a lower cost
we’re actually approaching the point
where energy may almost be free we’re
not quite there yet but free energy is
something really difficult for
economists to understand what do we do
with free what does the Reserve Bank do
with free and if we start building all
this stuff cheaper cleaner quicker
faster and we add it all up then at the
moment we’ve actually been growing the
amount we’ve been spending on renewable
energy but at the same time we’ve been
increasing amount with spend which are
the big columns on this graph and the
amount we’ve been building is the same
dotted lines on the side there the more
we build the cheaper it gets and the
cheaper it gets the more we build to the
point where into the future into 2025 we
will build far more renewable capacity
for far less money we should expect
global expenditure and energy to reduce
that’s extraordinary all of this stuff
builds into momentum all of this stuff
builds into change to the point where by
2025 we should be expecting to build
four times as much energy from
renewables for around about half the
cost next decade is going to be
remarkable 2017 is exciting 2025 is the
place when renewables really starts to
shine and why is that because we’re
changing so many things all at once
another thing we’re changing is how
quickly we build stuff if we’re going to
build a nuclear power station we need to
get a license we’ve got to get a
resource we’ve got to get permit we got
to go to the government we’ve got to
actually get financing we’ve got to get
all the way from the start all the way
to completion it takes around about 10
to 12 years takes over a decade if we do
the same with a coal plant it takes us
about six or seven years maybe eight if
we want to build a gas-fired power
station we have to do the same thing if
I want to build a solar plant takes me
about a year year and a half for the
same sized capacity these things can
roll out really quickly and if you tell
an investor give me a hundred million
dollars and I’ll build your coal-fired
power station and you
have it in seven years to return your
revenue or give me one hundred million
dollars I’ll build you a solar plant and
I’ll be making electricity and money for
you in a year and a half
what’s the investor going to do this
change is only natural now the
technology has arrived with every entry
we need to expect an exit we’re building
more and more renewable in fact in 2015
we built more renewables on the planet
for the first time than fossil fuel but
there’s another thing obvious from that
graph the fossil fuel is exiting the
second thing that’s obvious from that
graph if we think about my earlier
message I can build renewables really
quick year or two it takes me six or
eight years to build fossil fuel so the
fossil fuel on that graph was decided on
six or eight years ago in fact the
beginning of the construction that’s
emerging in 2016 and 17 we made
decisions on in 2009 and 2010 but there
are ánewá Buhl’s it’s emerging here as
this encompassing wave we only made
decisions on those two years ago so when
we get another two or three years into
the future that graph will be ludicrous
now if you ask the world what does this
renewable energy stuff look like how’s
it going to grow into this new mark and
if you ask those that are involved in
traditional forecasting of energy
markets who have had hundred years of
experience in looking at these trend
lines of energy forever in this case the
Energy Information Agency from the USA
what does the future look like you know
what it looks like a flat line in the
future but they’re not doing it with a
modern hat on they’re not doing it with
the idea we’re cheaper quicker cleaner
but we know from adoption curves that
curves go like this and not only is
there an adoption entry there’s also an
old technology exit where’s the old
technology exit on this graph there
isn’t one it’s a flat line if we look at
this graph this is from another group
the International Energy Agency and
their forecasts are all strung up down
the bottom here it’s kind of like
forecasting policy through molasses it’s
kind of like trying to swim in the river
with concrete boots on all of their
forecasts don’t actually match up with
what actually happened so these
forecasts
from 2004 up to 2009 the solid yellow
line shows us the accretion of renewable
energy as it actually happened past
their forecasts and also a dotted line
that shows what the future might look
like and they’ve got it wrong they got
it wrong back then well maybe they
learned from that because all they did
was linear forecast we know it grows
logarithmically and so it should be a
big steep curve so perhaps this decade
they got it right they got it worse
there’s even more molasses they’re
walking through this without a knowledge
of what the future looks like the
challenge for us in building this new
technology is we need to understand
adoption curves we need to understand
that future comes faster than the past
and we need to understand that this is
really good news for the planet if we
build lots of renewables TV sets
everybody watches one anybody doesn’t
watch one come and give me a hand
no there’s a couple ok you have flip
phones TV sets ok I get it
TV sets are big and black and flat with
silicon and chips inside and they come
out of a factory and they consume energy
and actually another thing that’s big
and black and flat that actually makes
energy is a solar panel TV sets we make
about 300 million units a year lots of
TV sets what if we produced more solar
panels than we did TV sets would that
mean that solar panels are now just a
commodity would that mean that we’ve
actually moved energy from being
something you buy from a big company at
the end of the road to being something
that you own it’s just a commodity this
is a really exciting time where energy
is being democratized the energy that
we’re generating another change is being
distributed it doesn’t come from a
central power plant it comes from our
rooftop it might come from a smaller
plant nearby that’s really exciting so
if I then throw projections onto Ford
curves of where I think energy will go
we suddenly see the Green Line is
renewables it’s climbing it’s growing
we’re expecting it to climb and it’s
going to breakout hasn’t broken out yet
let me tell you next decade is going to
be really exciting but in the meanwhile
there’s always an exit and the exit we
can see with coal the round line
descending out really quickly
we’re already measuring the exit of coal
the other two lines purple is gas will
see that exit in another decade or so
the other line is blue and that’s oil
will also see that exit as well that’s
really exciting when we add up all the
energy that we use and we discover what
share of renewables is because by the
end of twenty forty we should expect
that renewables will be at least at
least sixty percent of global energy the
other thing that you can see in there I
said right at the start energy
efficiency is gaining the other thing
the world will do is start using less
energy and the reason for that is
because we’re going to be coming
increasingly mobile devices and we’re
going to have to be efficient if that’s
what we do but the most exciting thing
if we’re ambitious if these curves are
real if what I’m saying makes sense if I
stop pointing the laser at the audience
and we get to the next slide we also
discover that emissions are reducing as
well
60% of global energy by 2040 is really
great news for the planet I’m ambitious
with my targets but I think my targets
are real I think we need to be
optimistic about the future because
these targets can happen we just need to
collectively agree
to make it happen thank you
[Applause] you
changing really fast and in particular
right now the world of energy is
changing really fast too we’re doing a
whole range of things differently one of
the things is we’re being more energy
energy-efficient we’re doing more with
less we’re producing more goods with
less energy we’re changing how we source
energy we’re getting energy from new
places we’re getting energy from
renewable places and that’s fantastic as
well because the consequence of that is
its impact on co2 emissions and global
warming but there’s even more than that
because all of this new technology is
arriving in a way that changes how we
work all of this new energy is being
built faster and the products that use
them are being built faster we all know
that the world is changing we can feel
it we can see it one of the paps best
icons for global change is this little
device here there’s not too many of you
in the audience there will be a few that
still have a flip phone there will be
nobody in this audience that’s carrying
a landline copper network with them the
rate of change is extraordinary and one
of the other things that this represents
is another word called convergence which
represents many technologies arriving in
one place and if we actually opened up
the phone I can go often booked a hotel
I can get my rideshare I can check my
bank account I can download an image off
the web
I can tweet about this event I can play
pokemon go it might be time to stop
doing that ah I can make a phone call
who’d have imagined if we went back to
1980 and added up every device and if it
was possible to do worked out what it
would have cost us to do the number
would come up to be a million bucks
there’s that much technology on this
thousand dollar phone that in 1980 it
would have been worth a million dollars
that’s extraordinary that’s a
representation of change and
it’s the same level of change right now
that we’re seeing come to energy and
move through energy how can we be sure
that the future is arriving that we can
see this rate of change and we know from
looking at all the technologies of the
past that that rate of change early on
goes slow but once it starts to take it
goes fast and the blue line on this
graph shows the adoption rate of
technology and if we add all the blue
line up we make it to the yellow line
the yellow line shows us that level of
consumption that level adoption and with
every new technology there’s always an
exit who’s got their flip phones tool
let me see the hands there’s a couple of
hands cool ok that’s expected because
some of that technology carries forward
and just because we still we’ve still
got it today doesn’t mean it’ll be still
here tomorrow this century is coming
faster than technology did in the last
century and also the technology were
using is changing how can we be sure
let’s have a look at renewable energy
and where are at today in 2017 this is a
graph of real data the blue line is the
uptake of wind on the planet looks
enormous it’s a wonderful curve it’s
going up through the roof and a bit
later solar starts to join in and
actually if you look at that line
particularly well you’ll notice that
Solar is going faster the wind wind was
fast Solar is faster and if we start to
project into the future with an
ambitious view of where we expect this
new technology to be then we start to
see changes
first of all wind really seemed to be
fast on that last graph but when we put
it in context to the future we’re only
just getting started and what we
discover is that that use of storage
which we all know is important for
renewable energy is starting to also
take root and see rapid change is rapid
change that possible well the earlier
graph we showed says that’s the way it
always happens it starts slow and then
it goes fast the next five years will
always be faster than the last 50 that’s
extraordinary how does that happen as we
produce more volume we reduce costs the
red bar is simply the
using cost of solar on the planet with
some forecasts going forward and with
the increasing volume of solar on the
planet in yellow with the forecast going
forward as we reduce cost we can
increase volume that’s really important
we build things for a lower cost
we’re actually approaching the point
where energy may almost be free we’re
not quite there yet but free energy is
something really difficult for
economists to understand what do we do
with free what does the Reserve Bank do
with free and if we start building all
this stuff cheaper cleaner quicker
faster and we add it all up then at the
moment we’ve actually been growing the
amount we’ve been spending on renewable
energy but at the same time we’ve been
increasing amount with spend which are
the big columns on this graph and the
amount we’ve been building is the same
dotted lines on the side there the more
we build the cheaper it gets and the
cheaper it gets the more we build to the
point where into the future into 2025 we
will build far more renewable capacity
for far less money we should expect
global expenditure and energy to reduce
that’s extraordinary all of this stuff
builds into momentum all of this stuff
builds into change to the point where by
2025 we should be expecting to build
four times as much energy from
renewables for around about half the
cost next decade is going to be
remarkable 2017 is exciting 2025 is the
place when renewables really starts to
shine and why is that because we’re
changing so many things all at once
another thing we’re changing is how
quickly we build stuff if we’re going to
build a nuclear power station we need to
get a license we’ve got to get a
resource we’ve got to get permit we got
to go to the government we’ve got to
actually get financing we’ve got to get
all the way from the start all the way
to completion it takes around about 10
to 12 years takes over a decade if we do
the same with a coal plant it takes us
about six or seven years maybe eight if
we want to build a gas-fired power
station we have to do the same thing if
I want to build a solar plant takes me
about a year year and a half for the
same sized capacity these things can
roll out really quickly and if you tell
an investor give me a hundred million
dollars and I’ll build your coal-fired
power station and you
have it in seven years to return your
revenue or give me one hundred million
dollars I’ll build you a solar plant and
I’ll be making electricity and money for
you in a year and a half
what’s the investor going to do this
change is only natural now the
technology has arrived with every entry
we need to expect an exit we’re building
more and more renewable in fact in 2015
we built more renewables on the planet
for the first time than fossil fuel but
there’s another thing obvious from that
graph the fossil fuel is exiting the
second thing that’s obvious from that
graph if we think about my earlier
message I can build renewables really
quick year or two it takes me six or
eight years to build fossil fuel so the
fossil fuel on that graph was decided on
six or eight years ago in fact the
beginning of the construction that’s
emerging in 2016 and 17 we made
decisions on in 2009 and 2010 but there
are ánewá Buhl’s it’s emerging here as
this encompassing wave we only made
decisions on those two years ago so when
we get another two or three years into
the future that graph will be ludicrous
now if you ask the world what does this
renewable energy stuff look like how’s
it going to grow into this new mark and
if you ask those that are involved in
traditional forecasting of energy
markets who have had hundred years of
experience in looking at these trend
lines of energy forever in this case the
Energy Information Agency from the USA
what does the future look like you know
what it looks like a flat line in the
future but they’re not doing it with a
modern hat on they’re not doing it with
the idea we’re cheaper quicker cleaner
but we know from adoption curves that
curves go like this and not only is
there an adoption entry there’s also an
old technology exit where’s the old
technology exit on this graph there
isn’t one it’s a flat line if we look at
this graph this is from another group
the International Energy Agency and
their forecasts are all strung up down
the bottom here it’s kind of like
forecasting policy through molasses it’s
kind of like trying to swim in the river
with concrete boots on all of their
forecasts don’t actually match up with
what actually happened so these
forecasts
from 2004 up to 2009 the solid yellow
line shows us the accretion of renewable
energy as it actually happened past
their forecasts and also a dotted line
that shows what the future might look
like and they’ve got it wrong they got
it wrong back then well maybe they
learned from that because all they did
was linear forecast we know it grows
logarithmically and so it should be a
big steep curve so perhaps this decade
they got it right they got it worse
there’s even more molasses they’re
walking through this without a knowledge
of what the future looks like the
challenge for us in building this new
technology is we need to understand
adoption curves we need to understand
that future comes faster than the past
and we need to understand that this is
really good news for the planet if we
build lots of renewables TV sets
everybody watches one anybody doesn’t
watch one come and give me a hand
no there’s a couple ok you have flip
phones TV sets ok I get it
TV sets are big and black and flat with
silicon and chips inside and they come
out of a factory and they consume energy
and actually another thing that’s big
and black and flat that actually makes
energy is a solar panel TV sets we make
about 300 million units a year lots of
TV sets what if we produced more solar
panels than we did TV sets would that
mean that solar panels are now just a
commodity would that mean that we’ve
actually moved energy from being
something you buy from a big company at
the end of the road to being something
that you own it’s just a commodity this
is a really exciting time where energy
is being democratized the energy that
we’re generating another change is being
distributed it doesn’t come from a
central power plant it comes from our
rooftop it might come from a smaller
plant nearby that’s really exciting so
if I then throw projections onto Ford
curves of where I think energy will go
we suddenly see the Green Line is
renewables it’s climbing it’s growing
we’re expecting it to climb and it’s
going to breakout hasn’t broken out yet
let me tell you next decade is going to
be really exciting but in the meanwhile
there’s always an exit and the exit we
can see with coal the round line
descending out really quickly
we’re already measuring the exit of coal
the other two lines purple is gas will
see that exit in another decade or so
the other line is blue and that’s oil
will also see that exit as well that’s
really exciting when we add up all the
energy that we use and we discover what
share of renewables is because by the
end of twenty forty we should expect
that renewables will be at least at
least sixty percent of global energy the
other thing that you can see in there I
said right at the start energy
efficiency is gaining the other thing
the world will do is start using less
energy and the reason for that is
because we’re going to be coming
increasingly mobile devices and we’re
going to have to be efficient if that’s
what we do but the most exciting thing
if we’re ambitious if these curves are
real if what I’m saying makes sense if I
stop pointing the laser at the audience
and we get to the next slide we also
discover that emissions are reducing as
well
60% of global energy by 2040 is really
great news for the planet I’m ambitious
with my targets but I think my targets
are real I think we need to be
optimistic about the future because
these targets can happen we just need to
collectively agree
to make it happen thank you
[Applause] you
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