Press "Enter" to skip to content

I’ve studied nuclear war for 35 years — you should be worried. | Brian Toon | TEDxMileHigh


66 million years ago a mountainous sized
asteroid traveling ten times faster than
a bullet from an assault rifle slammed
in to the shallow seas covering what is
now the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico the
immense energy of that impact hurled
rocks as far north as Canada and it
vaporized the asteroid part of Mexico
and part of the shallow sea well we had
fireball full of vaporized rock and
water rose far above the Earth’s
atmosphere and spread over the planet as
it cooled molten drops of rock about the
size of a grain of sand solidified into
an immense swarm of shooting stars the
shooting stars we entered the Earth’s
atmosphere and heated the upper
atmosphere to a thousand degrees
Fahrenheit standing at the ground the
dinosaurs saw the blue sky become a
sheet of red-hot lava the scientific
artist David Hardy imagines the fate of
the dinosaurs in this painting
they broiled to death under the glowing
skies the energy in the sky is like that
in the globe are an electic oven if
you’re dying to experience what the
dinosaurs did when they died turn your
oven on broiled and hop in the glowing
skies started everything on fire great
clouds of smoke rose into the upper
atmosphere and black the Sun so that no
sunlight reached the ground it became
cold and dark photosynthesis stopped and
plants and animals in the ocean or on
the land either starve are froze to
death the dinosaurs didn’t do anything
wrong that
their death it was just fate that an
asteroid hit the earth and killed 70
percent of the species that we know of
on the planet unfortunately in our
lifetimes we may experience the same
fate as the dinosaurs but I’m not
talking about another asteroid collision
I’m talking about a nuclear war a
nuclear war would have many of the same
phenomena that the dinosaurs experienced
but this time it absolutely would be our
fault
fortunately there are things that we can
do to prevent this from happening if you
live in a city that has a military base
there’s a missile that’s aimed at you
right now if you live in a city that has
an important industry a major university
a large airport an oil refinery or oil
storage facilities there is a hydrogen
bomb that’s aimed at you right now we
live in a perilous era there are 15,000
nuclear weapons on the planet and the
nine nuclear weapons states are in
conflict with each other the United
States and North Korea NATO and Russia
India and Pakistan we’re just one
misunderstanding one mistake our one
fanatic politician away from a nuclear
conflict in the second world war fleets
of hundreds or even a thousand airplanes
were used Obama single city but with the
invention of the atomic bomb only one
airplane and one bomb was needed the
Enola Gay carried one atomic bomb with
the power of 15,000 tons of TNT and when
it dropped that bomb on Hiroshima Japan
a hundred thousand people died over time
even more powerful bombs were built
hydrogen bombs this 1960s airplane
carried five Hydra
and bombs the red and white things there
and had the power of 500 Hiroshima bombs
and of course the United States and
Russia don’t just use airplanes they
have intercontinental ballistic missiles
with hydrogen bombs on them and they
have nuclear submarines with missiles a
single Trident missile submarine can
carry a hundred hydrogen bombs with the
explosive power of a thousand Hiroshima
bombs knowing the power of the bombs and
their targets we can understand the
destructiveness and loss of life that
might occur if these were ever used let
us imagine for example that the United
States attacks Pyongyang North Korea the
capital with the smallest bomb carried
on a Trident missile submarine 500,000
people about the population of
Sacramento or Baltimore would die
nuclear weapons kill people in 4
different ways in this orange circle
there’s a shockwave so powerful that it
knocks down concrete buildings and kills
everyone within that zone in the red
circle there’s radiation that’s released
from the atomic bomb as it fissions the
radiation would kill 50 to 90% of the
North Koreans over the next few weeks in
this green circle the shock wave
continues out with enough power to knock
down residential buildings and in this
yellow circle 6 miles in diameter
there’s a blast of light so bright that
if your skin was exposed you get
third-degree burns which can be fatal
and flammable things like leaves
newspapers and your clothes would burst
into flames and of course if we attack
North Korea they’re likely to attack us
back if they use the same size weapon
that we used and they’ve already tested
one like this they could kill a hunt
50,000 people in this six mile diameter
circle in Denver and these terrifying
scenarios I’m talking about are just if
each side uses one nuclear weapon but
Russia and the United States each have
4000 strategic nuclear weapons that’s
enough to attack each city with more
than a hundred thousand people in each
country with ten atomic bombs in a war
like that 400 million people would
probably die in the planet in China in
Russia in Europe and in the United
States but wait that’s not all
I just been talking about the damage
near Ground Zero that’s all the military
considers in their war plans but there
will be collateral effects remember that
dinosaurs it was a burning forests that
killed three-quarters of the species we
know about on the planet and the same
what happened after a nuclear war cities
would catch on fire and burn it’s this
damage the damage the military doesn’t
even consider the damage this just
thought of as an accident that might
destroy human civilization even a war
between India and Pakistan two of the
smallest nuclear powers with only a few
hundred weapons of a by the size of the
Hiroshima bomb we might die as
unintended consequences that the Indian
and Pakistani generals never even gave
us a thought about my colleagues Luke
Oman and Alan robock calculated the
spread of smoke after a war between
India and Pakistan it only takes about
two weeks for the smoke to cover the
entire earth and it would rise to
altitudes between 20 and 50 miles above
the surface at those altitudes it never
rains the smoke would stay there for
years this farmer may be in Europe or in
the United States but many thousands
miles from Pakistan and India is looking
at the smoky sky above him and down at
the crops that have died in his field
from lack of light and cold temperatures
it’s estimated that in a war between
India and Pakistan that we would lose 10
to 40% of the yields of corn wheat and
rice for years afterward because of the
bad weather the entire world only has
enough food to feed the population for
60 days unless agriculture produces more
food IRA halfan a member of the Nobel
Peace Prize winning international
physicians for the Prevention of nuclear
war has estimated that 1 to 2 billion
people would die after a war between
India and Pakistan of starvation and
after a full-scale nuclear war
temperatures would plunge below ice age
conditions we would be in a nuclear
winter no crops would grow it’s
estimated that 90% of the population of
the planet would starve to death and
civilization would be destroyed and no
one would be safe not those in countries
with no nuclear weapons not those in
countries that didn’t participate in the
war and not those on the other side of
the planet from where the explosions
occurred no one would be safe I bet
you’re not getting a warm and fuzzy
feeling out of this talk but we don’t
have to just keep plodding on like we
have been walking for disaster we can do
things to stop a nuclear war and prevent
global starvation and the end of human
civilization in the 1980s politicians
recognized dangers of a nuclear conflict
and did things about it nowadays
politicians don’t seem to understand the
dangers of these wars and the younger
generations hardly give nuclear conflict
a thought we baby boomers had this
drummed into us in grade school we were
taught back in coverage rills and how to
get under our desk and a hopeless
attempt to of
the nuclear explosion in middle school
our mothers told us you can’t drink your
milk anymore because the 500 atmospheric
nuclear weapons test had poisoned the
earth with radiation and the popular
culture was dominated by radioactive
mutants such as Godzilla which is a
Japanese nightmare from Nagasaki and
Hiroshima in the 1980s I worked with
Richard Turco Carl Sagan Russian
scientist and others to tell Mikhail
Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan about the
dangers of a nuclear war
we told him a nuclear war would cause a
nuclear winter that could end
civilization as we know it and they
listened the Ronald Reagan said a great
many reputable scientists are telling us
that such a war could just end up in no
victory for anyone because we would wipe
out the earth as we know it and the Kal
Gorbachev said model is made by Russian
and American scientists show that a
nuclear war would result in a nuclear
winter that would be extremely
destructive to all life on Earth the
knowledge of that was a great stimulus
to us to people of honor and morality to
act in that situation in September of
2017 the United Nations passed a
resolution banning nuclear weapons like
landmines chemical and biological
weapons have been banned
unfortunately the nuclear weapons States
want to ignore that ban and just plod on
like they have been it’s up to us to
wake them up before they sleep walk into
a nuclear disaster what can you do about
this talk to your political
representatives tell them you’d like the
Department of Defense to report to us on
what would happen after a nuclear war
they did this
in the 1980s how many people would die
in Korea if we attack them with nuclear
weapons how many people will die in
Russia China South Korea and Japan the
countries that surround North Korea and
what will happen if like every other war
we have ever fought it does not go as
planned and expands beyond North Korea
and you should ask your politicians to
stop launch on warning in launch on
warning the American president can
launch nuclear-armed missiles within
minutes without consulting anyone using
the nuclear football which is carried
everywhere the president goes by a
military officer in 1968 the United
States and 190 other countries signed
the treaty to prevent a proliferation of
nuclear weapons in that treaty we
promised to build our nuclear arsenals
down to zero as soon as we could we need
to keep that promise
all of our lives may depend on it
you
Please follow and like us: