when I say the word terrorism lots of
different images will pop up in your
mind and even though most definitions of
terrorism neutrally agree the terrorism
is the use of violence against the
civilian population for a political
purpose to induce fear still most
definitions are never used in a neutral
way and similarly when I say the word
terrorist organization’ chances are
you’re thinking about a small number of
people hiding away in a cave in a
basement and plotting maybe actually not
irrationally out of hatred and
fanaticism likely both well heist and
the past 10 years study non-state armed
groups these are organizations that are
not under state control and they use
violence to challenge it so saying
terrorists insurgents militias and I’m
convinced that we really need to dig
deeper if we want to understand these
actors their evolution and outer
producing new forms of insecurity there
are constantly affecting the civilian
population so to start these groups are
having a global impact but not all
countries are affected the same way take
a look at this map if you look in red
you can see five countries Nigeria Iraq
Syria Afghanistan and Pakistan now these
five countries together in 2014 I
counted for 78% of civilian casualties
of terrorism so not all countries are
affected the same way unfortunately
India is also up there because in 2014
together again with Nigeria Iraq
Afghanistan and Pakistan it was one of
the five countries where 60% of
terrorist operations were plotted or
carried out
so what is this telling us this is
telling us that we need to understand
beyond the news headlines the evolution
of these groups to do so let’s start
with grasping with a new word a word in
which wars are happening less and less
between states fought between soldiers
on a battlefield and they’re happening
more and more between states and
non-state actors or between non-state
actors themselves so in the process
armed groups are becoming more important
and not just that they’re learning they
are adapting they are evolving I want to
show you three ways through which this
is happening evolution in economics and
fundraising tactics evolution in
communication and evolution in
governance
so first is pound raising we all know
the traditionally insurgents rob banks
or kidnap to make money but today armed
groups are doing way more than that they
invest in legitimate businesses like
construction companies they make deals
with criminal organizations to make
money and they go as far as we found
raising campaigns let me give you an
example through Isis or ISIL or the
Islamic state project whatever you want
to call it but they are estimated today
to be the wealthiest terrorist
organization in the world
two billion dollars now how do they make
this money they sell oil they loot
smuggle and sell Iraq and Syria
archaeological artifacts but most of the
money they make they make by Venus State
they make through taxation they make
through taxing those eight million
people that live under their control at
the same time they’re constantly
thinking about found raising and they
constantly do crowdsourcing campaigns
for their supporters the second is
communication the point here is armed
groups have learned to talk to us so
that we listen again think of Isis we
all know they have a very strong social
media campaign they send thousands of
tweets
every day and no Twitter is shutting
down their comms so they’re free they’re
all fleeing to telegram and even today
there are hundreds of accounts one is
for the news agency the ISIS news agency
one sends you pictures on a daily basis
what it’s like to live under the Islamic
state and then there’s countless of both
account to tell you for example how to
counter auntie isis propaganda but it’s
more than that isis is not in the media
al sees is the media they have a media
production company in the oven army an
army of graphic designers an army of saw
engineers and an army of cameramen these
are just as important as the food
soldiers and together they create a very
strong branding campaign and finally
governance governance is key here we all
know that armed groups traditionally
invest in work in their communities
maybe they create healthcare clinics
maybe schools what they do is they fill
a gap left by the government in doing so
they strengthen their bond with the
population beyond violence a key here is
provision of security and safety let me
take you back to the rise of the Taliban
in Afghanistan and to understand that
rise it’s impossible to do so if we
don’t understand how they stepped into a
context of civil war and insecurity and
they offered order and protection to the
civilian population Isis this very same
the investing governance and by doing so
they challenged what we think states
versus non states are capable of this is
war 3.0 and then there’s violence
violence is not new and violence is of
course of the core but mind you violence
is used strategically not irrationally
and it’s used to send different messages
to different audiences going back to
Isis in the territories they control
they use punishments and repression to
keep the population at bay to keep them
from rebelling they also engage in
defensive and
offensive operations to protect that
state project and to expand and then
hold understand RISM a group like Isis
uses international terrorism for many
purposes to create fear to create chaos
to disrupt their enemy’s society sense
of normalcy but also to create divisions
us and them and also to trigger an
overreaction and simultaneously to
project power and strength while
deterring their enemy now mind you this
is not just Isis if you go back a few
weeks and you think of the tragic
playbook of the Paris attacks well it’s
very familiar to the 26/11 Mumbai plot
what is in common terrorist
organizations understand that by
targeting soft targets and by insisting
on mass casualties they can
simultaneously project strength attract
support and deter their enemy all this
is really important to understand if we
want to grab the sophistication and
complexity is really the name of the
game for disarmed organizations today
this will also help us to understand how
they attract support again Isis they
attract supporters from many different
audiences for many different reasons
now in Iraq in Syria many join Isis
because they need a job and being a
fighter is one of the only jobs left in
a country that is near ravaged by a
bloody war others join because they want
safety for themselves or for their
families and this is the lesson again
there is a vicious circle between lack
of security at the personal and
community level and recurse to violence
and join in armed groups it’s related
and then what accounts for foreign
fighters from all kind of countries join
a group like Isis there is not one
answer but there’s a few things they
have in common like seeking order
seeking stability see
in a sense of belonging and seeking to
fulfill a sense of rightfulness now it’s
very easy for us to dismiss it and to
say this is incomprehensible this is
irrational my mind you by doing so we
will not get any closer to understand
these groups and to understand how they
thrive and to understand how they catch
and attract supporters so my work is to
study our groups through these allistic
lens to study the revolution beyond
geography and beyond ideology I think by
doing this we can really broaden the
policy focus because when we think of
the rise of a group like Isis yes it is
a global security challenge no it is not
just a military one it’s much broader
it’s about politics it’s about
governance it’s about fairness
it’s about representation now it’s easy
to dismiss it’s easy to ignore and it’s
easy to downplay when it comes to a
group like Isis but this is a mistake
we cannot make at least not if we want
to win this fight thank you
you [Applause]