so according to the economist John
Maynard Keynes in the long run we are
all
yeah well for economists the long run is
decades maybe centuries not really that
long at all as scientists I work on the
really long term so I like to think
about things on timescales of millions
of years or tens or hundreds of millions
of years or even billions of years so on
that kind of time scale there’s no doubt
that none of us here will be around sad
perhaps but true so why might we want to
think about these long timescales well I
think it’s interesting to think about
where humanity might be in the next
million years the next billion years
where are we headed what’s our future
look like that’s a hard question to
answer and I would say it’s not a
question I can answer with any certainty
but I think we can get some good ideas
play around with some possibilities now
it would be really helpful if we had an
example of another species like ours
which had developed intelligence and
technology and TED talks and was able to
go out into the universe and spread
their ideas and tell other people how
they did it that would be really great
unfortunately despite what you might
read on the internet or see on YouTube
or the History Channel there’s no really
good evidence really strong evidence
that we have either been visited by
aliens now or in the past and we know
that there haven’t been any signals that
we’ve received through our giant
telescopes that said he uses and so on
that’s a little depressing I think but
it is a fact so far as we know we are
alone in the universe as a technological
civilization maybe someday we’ll
discover that’s wrong but for right now
that’s what we’ve got to work with so
what does that tell us
well maybe it doesn’t tell us very much
at all but it might give us some
interesting information about where we
can expect to be headed in the future
maybe depressing but maybe useful so one
possibility that we don’t know of any
other civilizations is just that it’s
really really unlikely that
civilizations do
that’s a possibility but there’s really
nothing in physics or chemistry or
biology that prohibits life from
developing in fact from what we know of
the earth life gets started pretty
easily and it develops over time and
we’re intelligent and so probably there
are other intelligent civilizations out
there as well
so why do we see them the a physicist
Enrico Fermi asked this question he said
if life is pretty likely to evolve and
develop which I would argue it is why
don’t we see other civilizations well
there’s lots of possibilities lots of
different solutions people have come up
with all kinds of creative ideas to
explain this paradox my favorite the one
that I think is most likely to be
correct is simply that intelligent
civilizations don’t have very long
lifetimes so maybe there was another
civilization like ours somewhere in our
galaxy and they live for a while and now
they’re gone
why do I think that’s likely well look
at our own human example first of all we
have about 15,000 nuclear weapons in the
world right now yeah it’s not quite as
scary as it was a few decades ago when I
was kid and was watching a movie like
the day after if you’ve seen it you know
what I mean if you haven’t it’s worth
watching if you want to be terrified so
it’s not quite as scary as it used to be
there used to be many more nuclear
warheads in the world than there are
today of that I’m very grateful but the
fact remains that if we were to use
those weapons we would probably wipe
ourselves out in fact simulations have
shown that even a small regional war
between two powers such as India and
Pakistan with a small arsenal maybe a
few warheads exchanged could change our
climate dramatically enough to lead to
the starvation of millions or hundreds
of millions of people pretty significant
for a very small confrontation so
nuclear weapons are one of our
inventions that are definitely dangerous
to
our continued survival but there’s other
possible inventions that we might come
up with or maybe have already come up
with which could threaten our survival
for instance we’re really good at
genetic engineering these days and we’re
getting better all the time that has
some huge benefits probably we would not
be able to feed nearly as many people as
we do today without some of those
advances but all good things can go
wrong
so perhaps someone develops a new
microbe and virus or something like this
that’s intended to solve some problem a
good purpose but maybe it goes wrong
it’s gets loose it travels through the
population wipes us all out possible
maybe our robotic creations decide we’re
good we don’t need you guys anymore
Terminator style right yeah possible
maybe a little far-fetched but maybe not
so the human species presents a lot of
significant challenges to itself in fact
even our most simple most basic
invention burning things in order to
make power has set us on an
unprecedented course so about ten
thousand years ago human civilization
was getting started and over that last
10,000 years we’ve developed in a pretty
mild fairly temperate reasonably calm
climate state hasn’t been real hot most
of the time it hasn’t been very cold
over that 10,000 years or so this is a
period called the Holocene it’s nice and
stable unfortunately those days are
behind us about 200 years ago give or
take we started on a planet-wide
atmospheric chemistry experiment which I
would normally think is awesome because
I love atmospheric chemistry but in this
case it’s gonna have significant
negative consequences for us unintended
consequences we’re already seeing these
consequences right sea level rise more
extreme storms in the not-too-distant
future half of Florida may be underwater
low-lying country like the Maldives may
be gone entirely we’re gonna see malaria
and other diseases spreading the farther
reaches and they’ve ever been before
we’re going to see droughts and floods
and half the country on fire
we’re already also seeing so climate
change is a huge challenge and it was
brought on by ourselves unknowingly
there are other possibilities so we’re
really good at making more of ourselves
yeah yeah and in 1800 there were about a
billion of us that seems like a lot but
now there’s seven and a half billion and
by 2050 there might be ten billion you
might notice that that’s not a straight
line curve it’s more like this so that’s
a problem right we can’t keep going like
this we can’t keep making more of
ourselves and continue to feed and
clothe and house everyone we’ve made
astonishing advancements decades ago
probably most people would have said no
way the earth can support seven and a
half billion people that’s crazy but we
have hard-working farmers and scientists
who have made it possible but we can’t
keep doing that forever eventually we
will simply eat ourselves out of house
and home
so maybe other technological
civilizations out there reached a point
where they grew themselves out of
existence
or they blew themselves up or their
robotic creations wiped them out and so
their lifetime was short now those are
problems that we can mostly overcome we
can make choices which will reduce the
risk of those self-imposed
threats but it turns out that the
universe itself is a pretty dangerous
place so over the last three billion
years or so that life’s been around on
this planet there’s about five billion
species that’s everything from trilobite
stew giant dragonflies to cats and dogs
and you and me that’s a lot the bad news
is 99% of those species are now gone
extinct never to be seen or heard from
again in the universe that sounds pretty
bad right but we’re still here so maybe
it’s not so bad
well bad things can happen
from outside of the planet for instance
you may have heard of the dinosaurs
probably have okay you may also have
heard that about 65 million years ago
they were all wiped out almost
instantaneously geologically
instantaneously by a big rock from space
now the dinosaurs were incredibly
successful they ruled the planet as this
group for about a hundred and sixty-five
million years that’s a really long time
that’s am over a thousand times longer
than the human species has been around
but they were all wiped out almost
instantaneously by a power completely
outside of their knowledge it could
happen again there are comets and
asteroids roaming around our solar
system all the time
one of them could impact the earth the
end of us the good news is we can see a
lot of them coming and we can prepare so
maybe it’s not quite as scary as it
seems now it turns out that our own
planet is also pretty dangerous so about
250 million years ago about 95% of the
species on earth went extinct almost all
at once probably because of massive
climate change following some severe
volcanic activity at the time so
volcanic activity seems kind of scary
and it is but it’s also an absolute
necessity in order for complex life to
develop in order for the climate system
to work properly over long enough
periods of time so the things like you
and me can develop and become
intelligent and develop technology we
probably have to have volcanic activity
but at the same time it could kill us
off at any time so we’re kind of stuck
here so really what are our prospects
well they kind of don’t look good right
it might be a little depressing as I
said though there are choices we can
make we can reduce our nuclear arsenal
we can we’ve been doing it actually we
can do better we can avoid unintended
consequences as much as possible be
careful when we’re developing technology
we can pay attention and actually change
our behavior when we discover something
isn’t working that’s hard but it is
doable the external universe we can’t
control but we
can watch we can watch for those
asteroids and comets we can prepare
ahead of time we can have a plan in
place to say that’s going to be here in
50 years what are we going to do about
it so there are things we can do there
steps we can take
unfortunately in about a billion years
the sun’s luminosity will increase to
the point where all of the Earth’s water
will boil off into space not
instantaneously but at the end of that
process the earth will be uninhabitable
to certainly any complex life so at some
point we have to leave
we simply cannot stay on this planet
forever now a billion years is a long
time in the future but eventually this
planet will be uninhabitable and the
longer we stay the more vulnerable we
become so we must go to the moon we need
to go to Mars we need to go to the
satellites of Jupiter and Saturn and we
should go there anyway because can you
imagine the views incredible so there
are ways that we can save ourselves now
most of us don’t have to spend all of
our days thinking about the really long
run the next billion years is not
something most of us have to spend our
time worrying about and that’s good but
some of us should spend our time
thinking about the next billion years
because only by starting now and working
together can we come up with solutions
only by working together starting to do
the things that we’re able to do now can
we take the steps that are necessary to
ensure our continued survival wouldn’t
it be a shame if we are the only
technological civilization in the
universe and we let ourselves go extinct
so I think we have a responsibility I
think we have a moral imperative if you
will to do what we can now to make the
steps of the future possible in order to
ensure that we continue to survive in a
universe that
be so dangerous that we’re the only
species around to think about it thank
you
[Applause]
Maynard Keynes in the long run we are
all
yeah well for economists the long run is
decades maybe centuries not really that
long at all as scientists I work on the
really long term so I like to think
about things on timescales of millions
of years or tens or hundreds of millions
of years or even billions of years so on
that kind of time scale there’s no doubt
that none of us here will be around sad
perhaps but true so why might we want to
think about these long timescales well I
think it’s interesting to think about
where humanity might be in the next
million years the next billion years
where are we headed what’s our future
look like that’s a hard question to
answer and I would say it’s not a
question I can answer with any certainty
but I think we can get some good ideas
play around with some possibilities now
it would be really helpful if we had an
example of another species like ours
which had developed intelligence and
technology and TED talks and was able to
go out into the universe and spread
their ideas and tell other people how
they did it that would be really great
unfortunately despite what you might
read on the internet or see on YouTube
or the History Channel there’s no really
good evidence really strong evidence
that we have either been visited by
aliens now or in the past and we know
that there haven’t been any signals that
we’ve received through our giant
telescopes that said he uses and so on
that’s a little depressing I think but
it is a fact so far as we know we are
alone in the universe as a technological
civilization maybe someday we’ll
discover that’s wrong but for right now
that’s what we’ve got to work with so
what does that tell us
well maybe it doesn’t tell us very much
at all but it might give us some
interesting information about where we
can expect to be headed in the future
maybe depressing but maybe useful so one
possibility that we don’t know of any
other civilizations is just that it’s
really really unlikely that
civilizations do
that’s a possibility but there’s really
nothing in physics or chemistry or
biology that prohibits life from
developing in fact from what we know of
the earth life gets started pretty
easily and it develops over time and
we’re intelligent and so probably there
are other intelligent civilizations out
there as well
so why do we see them the a physicist
Enrico Fermi asked this question he said
if life is pretty likely to evolve and
develop which I would argue it is why
don’t we see other civilizations well
there’s lots of possibilities lots of
different solutions people have come up
with all kinds of creative ideas to
explain this paradox my favorite the one
that I think is most likely to be
correct is simply that intelligent
civilizations don’t have very long
lifetimes so maybe there was another
civilization like ours somewhere in our
galaxy and they live for a while and now
they’re gone
why do I think that’s likely well look
at our own human example first of all we
have about 15,000 nuclear weapons in the
world right now yeah it’s not quite as
scary as it was a few decades ago when I
was kid and was watching a movie like
the day after if you’ve seen it you know
what I mean if you haven’t it’s worth
watching if you want to be terrified so
it’s not quite as scary as it used to be
there used to be many more nuclear
warheads in the world than there are
today of that I’m very grateful but the
fact remains that if we were to use
those weapons we would probably wipe
ourselves out in fact simulations have
shown that even a small regional war
between two powers such as India and
Pakistan with a small arsenal maybe a
few warheads exchanged could change our
climate dramatically enough to lead to
the starvation of millions or hundreds
of millions of people pretty significant
for a very small confrontation so
nuclear weapons are one of our
inventions that are definitely dangerous
to
our continued survival but there’s other
possible inventions that we might come
up with or maybe have already come up
with which could threaten our survival
for instance we’re really good at
genetic engineering these days and we’re
getting better all the time that has
some huge benefits probably we would not
be able to feed nearly as many people as
we do today without some of those
advances but all good things can go
wrong
so perhaps someone develops a new
microbe and virus or something like this
that’s intended to solve some problem a
good purpose but maybe it goes wrong
it’s gets loose it travels through the
population wipes us all out possible
maybe our robotic creations decide we’re
good we don’t need you guys anymore
Terminator style right yeah possible
maybe a little far-fetched but maybe not
so the human species presents a lot of
significant challenges to itself in fact
even our most simple most basic
invention burning things in order to
make power has set us on an
unprecedented course so about ten
thousand years ago human civilization
was getting started and over that last
10,000 years we’ve developed in a pretty
mild fairly temperate reasonably calm
climate state hasn’t been real hot most
of the time it hasn’t been very cold
over that 10,000 years or so this is a
period called the Holocene it’s nice and
stable unfortunately those days are
behind us about 200 years ago give or
take we started on a planet-wide
atmospheric chemistry experiment which I
would normally think is awesome because
I love atmospheric chemistry but in this
case it’s gonna have significant
negative consequences for us unintended
consequences we’re already seeing these
consequences right sea level rise more
extreme storms in the not-too-distant
future half of Florida may be underwater
low-lying country like the Maldives may
be gone entirely we’re gonna see malaria
and other diseases spreading the farther
reaches and they’ve ever been before
we’re going to see droughts and floods
and half the country on fire
we’re already also seeing so climate
change is a huge challenge and it was
brought on by ourselves unknowingly
there are other possibilities so we’re
really good at making more of ourselves
yeah yeah and in 1800 there were about a
billion of us that seems like a lot but
now there’s seven and a half billion and
by 2050 there might be ten billion you
might notice that that’s not a straight
line curve it’s more like this so that’s
a problem right we can’t keep going like
this we can’t keep making more of
ourselves and continue to feed and
clothe and house everyone we’ve made
astonishing advancements decades ago
probably most people would have said no
way the earth can support seven and a
half billion people that’s crazy but we
have hard-working farmers and scientists
who have made it possible but we can’t
keep doing that forever eventually we
will simply eat ourselves out of house
and home
so maybe other technological
civilizations out there reached a point
where they grew themselves out of
existence
or they blew themselves up or their
robotic creations wiped them out and so
their lifetime was short now those are
problems that we can mostly overcome we
can make choices which will reduce the
risk of those self-imposed
threats but it turns out that the
universe itself is a pretty dangerous
place so over the last three billion
years or so that life’s been around on
this planet there’s about five billion
species that’s everything from trilobite
stew giant dragonflies to cats and dogs
and you and me that’s a lot the bad news
is 99% of those species are now gone
extinct never to be seen or heard from
again in the universe that sounds pretty
bad right but we’re still here so maybe
it’s not so bad
well bad things can happen
from outside of the planet for instance
you may have heard of the dinosaurs
probably have okay you may also have
heard that about 65 million years ago
they were all wiped out almost
instantaneously geologically
instantaneously by a big rock from space
now the dinosaurs were incredibly
successful they ruled the planet as this
group for about a hundred and sixty-five
million years that’s a really long time
that’s am over a thousand times longer
than the human species has been around
but they were all wiped out almost
instantaneously by a power completely
outside of their knowledge it could
happen again there are comets and
asteroids roaming around our solar
system all the time
one of them could impact the earth the
end of us the good news is we can see a
lot of them coming and we can prepare so
maybe it’s not quite as scary as it
seems now it turns out that our own
planet is also pretty dangerous so about
250 million years ago about 95% of the
species on earth went extinct almost all
at once probably because of massive
climate change following some severe
volcanic activity at the time so
volcanic activity seems kind of scary
and it is but it’s also an absolute
necessity in order for complex life to
develop in order for the climate system
to work properly over long enough
periods of time so the things like you
and me can develop and become
intelligent and develop technology we
probably have to have volcanic activity
but at the same time it could kill us
off at any time so we’re kind of stuck
here so really what are our prospects
well they kind of don’t look good right
it might be a little depressing as I
said though there are choices we can
make we can reduce our nuclear arsenal
we can we’ve been doing it actually we
can do better we can avoid unintended
consequences as much as possible be
careful when we’re developing technology
we can pay attention and actually change
our behavior when we discover something
isn’t working that’s hard but it is
doable the external universe we can’t
control but we
can watch we can watch for those
asteroids and comets we can prepare
ahead of time we can have a plan in
place to say that’s going to be here in
50 years what are we going to do about
it so there are things we can do there
steps we can take
unfortunately in about a billion years
the sun’s luminosity will increase to
the point where all of the Earth’s water
will boil off into space not
instantaneously but at the end of that
process the earth will be uninhabitable
to certainly any complex life so at some
point we have to leave
we simply cannot stay on this planet
forever now a billion years is a long
time in the future but eventually this
planet will be uninhabitable and the
longer we stay the more vulnerable we
become so we must go to the moon we need
to go to Mars we need to go to the
satellites of Jupiter and Saturn and we
should go there anyway because can you
imagine the views incredible so there
are ways that we can save ourselves now
most of us don’t have to spend all of
our days thinking about the really long
run the next billion years is not
something most of us have to spend our
time worrying about and that’s good but
some of us should spend our time
thinking about the next billion years
because only by starting now and working
together can we come up with solutions
only by working together starting to do
the things that we’re able to do now can
we take the steps that are necessary to
ensure our continued survival wouldn’t
it be a shame if we are the only
technological civilization in the
universe and we let ourselves go extinct
so I think we have a responsibility I
think we have a moral imperative if you
will to do what we can now to make the
steps of the future possible in order to
ensure that we continue to survive in a
universe that
be so dangerous that we’re the only
species around to think about it thank
you
[Applause]
Please follow and like us: