[Applause]
hello everyone my name is cross Angelica
and today I’m going to be talking about
math but before I get to that I would
ask all of you a few questions
so as you meet everyone here singing rap
at a certain point of time or is
currently studying math how do you enjoy
taking math now keep your hands up
now all with your hands up how many you
enjoy learning about probability well I
see a lot of hands dropping in the
audience but I’m here to try and change
them which brings me to the title of my
talk today how much do we know about
probability now I’m guessing most of you
know you going to us it’s probably the
most common scenario
when it comes to probability
calculations every coin has a headed eto
of the car building in peach or getting
each side and or two equals your
windpipe correct well I’m saying that
this could potentially be wrong when we
toss it going we are talking to you but
there are only two possibilities that
could happen either the head faces up or
the Tilden’s which does see my rationale
of course less but what we think about
it what if the coin were to fall on
catch or if the coin was great into two
million if we think about it it’s
entirely possible for they’re going to
be swept away by a bird before the toss
complete now I am going to be the
audience may be arguing that every event
I just spoke about is an impossible
event but this brings me to the
possibility of a set of infinite
possibilities for a given event now what
this means for this situation is that
the probability of getting a heads is
equal to the probability of getting a
tails which is not equal to 0.5
now with working on to a few more
examples I wouldn’t be talking about a
few common terms that I’ll be using a
lot from here on now a set-aside is a
collection of data or in our case of
legal collection and possibilities for
an outcome for which
now a sample size is the number of
individual data pieces or possibilities
in that given set in other terms it can
be said to be the size percent now Cuba
is an inhumane always called bully
instead of an a happening and it’s type
weighted using the common formula now
the next the next term which does give a
giving me expresses a concept called
conditional probability and it is time
video using falling formula however we
will be using this formula
for more problem we’ll be using the
condition conditional probability and
the term itself
now what this expresses is an
interdependence or interpolation between
the two events and me and it will be
used from Excel to become assistant
before let’s talk about the weather now
I’m sure most of you here know that we
know how we know but how the weather is
going to be over the next few days
because of forecasts and I’m sure most
of you also know that forecast is the
most lovely weather planner to occur
that is the weather part of the high
schoo that we have occurring so we
probably consider one thing whether for
Miss Excel is to be pre accurate but on
many occasions it can seem us now it’s
probably why we are always often a lot
of jokes in our professions but exactly
how unreliable are these weather
forecasts so all the observations made
about a specific areas temperature
humidity
air-conditioned such as on other such
atmospheric conditions are taken to come
from present and past records of a
specific areas weather stations now this
smells a newly infinite set of
possibilities of that given area to
calculate the weather forecasts so we
think about its pretty similar to an
implicit set however there are large
entities in the extrapolation of such
data which are created to chaos this
unfortunately also means that in areas
with our small unknowns in the weather
that ultimately result in large
fluctuations in forecasting be quite
unreliable
therefore extremely dangerous weather
situations can obviously be as well
because the number of times the weather
was occurred far outweighs the number of
times a strange occurrence of weather
has occurred in the same area let’s take
for example the data collected from the
a fictional town a now over here we can
see that under our view instead of
common conditions a number of times
normal weather to just sunny cloudy or
rainy days is a high number one compared
extreme others occur in fact we can say
that the number of times extreme others
occur is quite insignificant now but
when we think about it short in about on
our short period of time after what the
predictions can be made because when we
think about it we’re taking into account
that we straight recruit some other and
every outlier Medus taken place in a
given area
however I do scientific methods of
meteorology rely on running multiple
simulations to increase their their
sample space which is their view
increases their accuracy by but this
importunately also means that a bias
forecast occurred in my opinion as to
programming the simulations increase the
probability in favor of the
the past now this approach also ignores
the possibility of a new weather
occurrence the Lyman pass sentence does
basic unreliable in the sense that for
calculations are powerful you’ve not
taken to account
you are part of the q7 now this abortion
wheel is a feasibility use an existence
of an influence that in terms of our
weather forecasts to predict that is the
main risks with examples is once again
divided and it Swiss Gogi of
salsa question so what if this could be
solved but if we define the term
infinite set for consideration
now when we think about it and
Infinite’s that can be drawn parallel to
a universal set now a universal set is a
defined mathematical concept like exists
of every single possibility or database
in a given concept or theory it is
represented by the tongue are you now
who wished if we wish to visualize this
Universal set in terms of a set diagram
here’s how we can do now when we talk
about a sample space or an infinite set
this boundary of the universal set
pushes the penny if I may even may say
surpasses the boundaries of the finite
and quantifiable sample space so now the
set Dargo looks a little more like this
for influenza because the boundary is
not defined but the problem with this is
that many contradictions are rise when
it comes to
in terms that you know games for defined
and closed sets of possibilities or an
event which started to fight now let’s
say for example the pub believe me
coming to school on a big day in this
case only two possible or two events
that can happen either a I come to
school for me I don’t know the duration
for which I attend class whether I’m are
present and whether I fall sick in
between has no effect on the current odd
whether it is imparted of countless a
part of a movie by physically entering
the premises for even a second the trial
is mounted up artist at eight now even
then there are some examples and support
the existence of an Indian set let’s
take for example surgeons there
databases of the infinite access or
unlimited access to information if I may
say and they use humans too in a way
distribute this infirmary
information using the occurs with
keywords and relevance by basically
viewers to allow us to find information
we want very easily so it can easily be
asserted this is the physical thing we
know to an infinite set
however to time varying searches and
user base updates we can say that the
probability of finding or giving what we
actually given said I think will be
given keywords at any point in time is
always changing that is in the U of A
internet links the probability of
finding ABC web page you can X Y Z P
with is continuously varying now let us
say for example if I’m trying to look at
the answer to a certain question are
probably not going to find it so that I
want let us say for example what I try
to look at the other day now
unfortunately I was able to find
which is what I’m trying to say to us
today now even then we can say we still
don’t know if it’s exits because we’re
seeing that applies to some situations
but in all situations it does not now
what if now let’s see what version
Russell exit one day
now if we then go by inference set or
infinite sample space we are considering
one large set in which each individual
possibility is its own separate set with
no intersection in between this is how
we move
now according to virtue of muscles
however there is no set of all steps
that does not continue itself now this
very confusing statement is what is
referred to as Brussels Mary oaks and it
discovered many contradictions or many
limits to go to cemeteries that were
built on non mathematical language now
much like what we’re doing now now this
is represented using the following
mathematical statement now I know this
looks very confusing which is why I’m
going to show you all an example of all
these little cuts his paragraphs now
consider there is one word in a time in
a very small town there’s one more but
however he has one in addition to the
customers days he only shaves men who do
not shave themselves and consider that
miss farmer did not shave himself then
who shaves the bar this kind of
contradiction is what the russell’s
paradox which is dumb and you know
five two hours that theory itself
needless to say the universal set up our
muse the infinite sub theory has been
falsified now the discovery of this
paradox allowed me to look at a lot of
other programs but I’ve always been an
interest of mine so I’m going to show
you all of them another paradox that
will probably be a lot more easier to
understand and hopefully along bring you
because there are all for you to honors
one of them has twice as much as one
here’s the other and these two envelopes
are identical in terms of worship and
sex
so you cannot distinguish which on
just like that I asked you to choose an
envelope and once you choose the
envelope you get to take the money
inside of it but before you get to
inspect the envelope I ask you if you
want to switch now would you switch or
would you have now hands up how many you
would sociology and how many of you I’m
guessing the rest hand interesting so
here’s what I thought when we think
about it at first glance so Jim Bianco
seems quite pointless however when you
look at this situation again we could
possibly be twice as much as money while
risking to only lose half of what we
have now let’s talk about that we’ll
push this situation if we think about it
eight let us take that a is the amount
of money that we have ever selected on
this means I’ve done two possibilities
from traveling people probability of
occur either
there’s the a vitamin
meaning that we have the larger sum of
money or there is a two-way amount of
money the other people that we have the
lesser money so if we try to calculate
the amount of money in the other arm the
expected amount of money the state
Gration that we can derive which gives
us that the sum of that the amount of on
the money in the other on what we
survive every day that the salad was
quite obviously better than about okay
so we are asked to download now the
problem with this is that we can read
about this entire equation once you’re
such a honorable so if I wonder how to
propose it
as a constant and have in fact from the
switching is no better than keeping the
arm it’s all in a group chats much like
attitudes which finally officer puts us
right back the top so what I talk about
how does any of this interest or benefit
any of you any Widow
I took the influence that theory that I
constructed in later this group that
didn’t have
but it challenged me to think about what
is when I personal probably in high
school I can honestly tell you that I do
interesting it out but then I was into a
theme and then I discovered something
what I wanted to show you is what I’ve
actually learned but we can’t just see
things that we are
we need to look at them from you moron
to start respecting now this this
philosophy doesn’t just apply the map
or anything we do in our lives if we can
fool ourselves to not discuss everything
we view as uninteresting at first glance
then we have the chance to shape what we
learn and teach others thank
hello everyone my name is cross Angelica
and today I’m going to be talking about
math but before I get to that I would
ask all of you a few questions
so as you meet everyone here singing rap
at a certain point of time or is
currently studying math how do you enjoy
taking math now keep your hands up
now all with your hands up how many you
enjoy learning about probability well I
see a lot of hands dropping in the
audience but I’m here to try and change
them which brings me to the title of my
talk today how much do we know about
probability now I’m guessing most of you
know you going to us it’s probably the
most common scenario
when it comes to probability
calculations every coin has a headed eto
of the car building in peach or getting
each side and or two equals your
windpipe correct well I’m saying that
this could potentially be wrong when we
toss it going we are talking to you but
there are only two possibilities that
could happen either the head faces up or
the Tilden’s which does see my rationale
of course less but what we think about
it what if the coin were to fall on
catch or if the coin was great into two
million if we think about it it’s
entirely possible for they’re going to
be swept away by a bird before the toss
complete now I am going to be the
audience may be arguing that every event
I just spoke about is an impossible
event but this brings me to the
possibility of a set of infinite
possibilities for a given event now what
this means for this situation is that
the probability of getting a heads is
equal to the probability of getting a
tails which is not equal to 0.5
now with working on to a few more
examples I wouldn’t be talking about a
few common terms that I’ll be using a
lot from here on now a set-aside is a
collection of data or in our case of
legal collection and possibilities for
an outcome for which
now a sample size is the number of
individual data pieces or possibilities
in that given set in other terms it can
be said to be the size percent now Cuba
is an inhumane always called bully
instead of an a happening and it’s type
weighted using the common formula now
the next the next term which does give a
giving me expresses a concept called
conditional probability and it is time
video using falling formula however we
will be using this formula
for more problem we’ll be using the
condition conditional probability and
the term itself
now what this expresses is an
interdependence or interpolation between
the two events and me and it will be
used from Excel to become assistant
before let’s talk about the weather now
I’m sure most of you here know that we
know how we know but how the weather is
going to be over the next few days
because of forecasts and I’m sure most
of you also know that forecast is the
most lovely weather planner to occur
that is the weather part of the high
schoo that we have occurring so we
probably consider one thing whether for
Miss Excel is to be pre accurate but on
many occasions it can seem us now it’s
probably why we are always often a lot
of jokes in our professions but exactly
how unreliable are these weather
forecasts so all the observations made
about a specific areas temperature
humidity
air-conditioned such as on other such
atmospheric conditions are taken to come
from present and past records of a
specific areas weather stations now this
smells a newly infinite set of
possibilities of that given area to
calculate the weather forecasts so we
think about its pretty similar to an
implicit set however there are large
entities in the extrapolation of such
data which are created to chaos this
unfortunately also means that in areas
with our small unknowns in the weather
that ultimately result in large
fluctuations in forecasting be quite
unreliable
therefore extremely dangerous weather
situations can obviously be as well
because the number of times the weather
was occurred far outweighs the number of
times a strange occurrence of weather
has occurred in the same area let’s take
for example the data collected from the
a fictional town a now over here we can
see that under our view instead of
common conditions a number of times
normal weather to just sunny cloudy or
rainy days is a high number one compared
extreme others occur in fact we can say
that the number of times extreme others
occur is quite insignificant now but
when we think about it short in about on
our short period of time after what the
predictions can be made because when we
think about it we’re taking into account
that we straight recruit some other and
every outlier Medus taken place in a
given area
however I do scientific methods of
meteorology rely on running multiple
simulations to increase their their
sample space which is their view
increases their accuracy by but this
importunately also means that a bias
forecast occurred in my opinion as to
programming the simulations increase the
probability in favor of the
the past now this approach also ignores
the possibility of a new weather
occurrence the Lyman pass sentence does
basic unreliable in the sense that for
calculations are powerful you’ve not
taken to account
you are part of the q7 now this abortion
wheel is a feasibility use an existence
of an influence that in terms of our
weather forecasts to predict that is the
main risks with examples is once again
divided and it Swiss Gogi of
salsa question so what if this could be
solved but if we define the term
infinite set for consideration
now when we think about it and
Infinite’s that can be drawn parallel to
a universal set now a universal set is a
defined mathematical concept like exists
of every single possibility or database
in a given concept or theory it is
represented by the tongue are you now
who wished if we wish to visualize this
Universal set in terms of a set diagram
here’s how we can do now when we talk
about a sample space or an infinite set
this boundary of the universal set
pushes the penny if I may even may say
surpasses the boundaries of the finite
and quantifiable sample space so now the
set Dargo looks a little more like this
for influenza because the boundary is
not defined but the problem with this is
that many contradictions are rise when
it comes to
in terms that you know games for defined
and closed sets of possibilities or an
event which started to fight now let’s
say for example the pub believe me
coming to school on a big day in this
case only two possible or two events
that can happen either a I come to
school for me I don’t know the duration
for which I attend class whether I’m are
present and whether I fall sick in
between has no effect on the current odd
whether it is imparted of countless a
part of a movie by physically entering
the premises for even a second the trial
is mounted up artist at eight now even
then there are some examples and support
the existence of an Indian set let’s
take for example surgeons there
databases of the infinite access or
unlimited access to information if I may
say and they use humans too in a way
distribute this infirmary
information using the occurs with
keywords and relevance by basically
viewers to allow us to find information
we want very easily so it can easily be
asserted this is the physical thing we
know to an infinite set
however to time varying searches and
user base updates we can say that the
probability of finding or giving what we
actually given said I think will be
given keywords at any point in time is
always changing that is in the U of A
internet links the probability of
finding ABC web page you can X Y Z P
with is continuously varying now let us
say for example if I’m trying to look at
the answer to a certain question are
probably not going to find it so that I
want let us say for example what I try
to look at the other day now
unfortunately I was able to find
which is what I’m trying to say to us
today now even then we can say we still
don’t know if it’s exits because we’re
seeing that applies to some situations
but in all situations it does not now
what if now let’s see what version
Russell exit one day
now if we then go by inference set or
infinite sample space we are considering
one large set in which each individual
possibility is its own separate set with
no intersection in between this is how
we move
now according to virtue of muscles
however there is no set of all steps
that does not continue itself now this
very confusing statement is what is
referred to as Brussels Mary oaks and it
discovered many contradictions or many
limits to go to cemeteries that were
built on non mathematical language now
much like what we’re doing now now this
is represented using the following
mathematical statement now I know this
looks very confusing which is why I’m
going to show you all an example of all
these little cuts his paragraphs now
consider there is one word in a time in
a very small town there’s one more but
however he has one in addition to the
customers days he only shaves men who do
not shave themselves and consider that
miss farmer did not shave himself then
who shaves the bar this kind of
contradiction is what the russell’s
paradox which is dumb and you know
five two hours that theory itself
needless to say the universal set up our
muse the infinite sub theory has been
falsified now the discovery of this
paradox allowed me to look at a lot of
other programs but I’ve always been an
interest of mine so I’m going to show
you all of them another paradox that
will probably be a lot more easier to
understand and hopefully along bring you
because there are all for you to honors
one of them has twice as much as one
here’s the other and these two envelopes
are identical in terms of worship and
sex
so you cannot distinguish which on
just like that I asked you to choose an
envelope and once you choose the
envelope you get to take the money
inside of it but before you get to
inspect the envelope I ask you if you
want to switch now would you switch or
would you have now hands up how many you
would sociology and how many of you I’m
guessing the rest hand interesting so
here’s what I thought when we think
about it at first glance so Jim Bianco
seems quite pointless however when you
look at this situation again we could
possibly be twice as much as money while
risking to only lose half of what we
have now let’s talk about that we’ll
push this situation if we think about it
eight let us take that a is the amount
of money that we have ever selected on
this means I’ve done two possibilities
from traveling people probability of
occur either
there’s the a vitamin
meaning that we have the larger sum of
money or there is a two-way amount of
money the other people that we have the
lesser money so if we try to calculate
the amount of money in the other arm the
expected amount of money the state
Gration that we can derive which gives
us that the sum of that the amount of on
the money in the other on what we
survive every day that the salad was
quite obviously better than about okay
so we are asked to download now the
problem with this is that we can read
about this entire equation once you’re
such a honorable so if I wonder how to
propose it
as a constant and have in fact from the
switching is no better than keeping the
arm it’s all in a group chats much like
attitudes which finally officer puts us
right back the top so what I talk about
how does any of this interest or benefit
any of you any Widow
I took the influence that theory that I
constructed in later this group that
didn’t have
but it challenged me to think about what
is when I personal probably in high
school I can honestly tell you that I do
interesting it out but then I was into a
theme and then I discovered something
what I wanted to show you is what I’ve
actually learned but we can’t just see
things that we are
we need to look at them from you moron
to start respecting now this this
philosophy doesn’t just apply the map
or anything we do in our lives if we can
fool ourselves to not discuss everything
we view as uninteresting at first glance
then we have the chance to shape what we
learn and teach others thank
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