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Chasing Infinity-The Growth Story | Mansoor Khan | TEDxIBSPune


good afternoon that was quite an
introduction only part of it is true I
don’t really get muddy on my farm but I
just enjoy the tranquility and it’s
given me a lot of time to think about
this what I’m going to share with you
completely different from what I used to
do before what I’m going to be talking
about is chasing infinity which is the
growth story growth is the big word in
our lives
everything has to grow growth now phase
one it all started in 1750 we got all
these wonderful things cause they had
travel telecom computers and all that
for 200 years these good things happened
so we thought the sky was the limit
but suddenly post seven 1970 all the bad
things started species extinction water
crisis falling water tables forest gone
etc which we call ecological collapse
good things suddenly bad things and then
just when we thought that was bad enough
more bad things happen this time with
your money volatile markets increasing
prices debt crisis financial bubbles
failing banks post-2000 so what is the
connection between all these good things
that we feel we ought to be working for
and the Eco collapse which is life
collapsing and economic collapse which
is your money collapsing and I proposed
to convince you that this is the cause
of all three of these its we never see
it that way but growth which is our
religion it is the biggest global
religion is growth
it is beyond Christianity Islam Hinduism
Judaism all of them combined it’s a
faith that things should keep growing
more I mean quantitative growth GDP
growth I don’t mean qualitative growth
this is the history of growth from 1750
it went crazy it was never like that ten
thousand years back the world worked
perfectly fine
two questions this perpetual growth
desirable most people say oh yeah of
course we get jobs we get this we get
that we get progress
but is perpetual growth possible so I’m
going to start with the second one
because first of all let me show you
whether it’s possible or not we have a
mind mind comes up with the concept
concept I write and read say lift up
this glass is a concept but to lift it
you need your body this I I didn’t use
this intentionally but just happens to
be there that is reality so the body can
do it the glass is small enough you’ve
managed to achieve the concept then the
mind cells lift up something heavier
because you’re into growth lift a chair
the mind can do it again at the body can
do it again
by the way body is reality mind is
concept so you can come up with any
concept and you keep going through
heavier and heavier things and finally
your mind says lift this up if anybody
can help me with that
so obviously the body cannot do that
minds have no limits bodies have limits
this is like going back to kg but we
need to go back to kg to question our
fundamental belief in this religion
called growth so what is the ultimate
concept that we came up with within
money money is a concept nobody eats
money you buy things with money and that
comes from the mind of the financial
system the whole system collectively
decides this is money and this is how it
should be here and it should grow how do
we define money we say first of all
money is equal to value which is not
true this is bread this is ten rupees
you eat the bread you don’t need the ten
rupees so money Maps value it’s not
value but we’ve forgotten that so each
time I draw a circle it’s a new concept
okay so in the next one immediately was
here this money should grow it should
own interest you should invest it and
the moment you add that concept of time
value of money you have started this
vector of linear growth of money seven
percent seven percent seven percent but
it’s so good that is a hey why not add
another concept why not add the interest
back and only interest on the interest
Wow
now your money is going like this
fabulous just look at this doesn’t
compare this store becomes
actually it never even reaches the right
side of the page it’s a mathematical
impossibility but we believe in it and
it’s so good that we say let this happen
forever so this is when we say growth in
all our discussions banks f DS finance
minister he doesn’t mean growth
he means perpetual exponential
quantitative growth which is a very
different monster this is the money
onion
it looks like an onion right just layers
of concepts so we have decided that
money should behave like this but this
looks dangerous but why do we like it
and that’s what we call economics 10
lakhs at 7% will double in 10 years in
just 10 decades
it’ll become 100 crores it looks like
this fantastic no wonder we believe that
it should happen but what nobody tells
you is that so does the use of your
resources you know the graph that nobody
will show you this is money red energy
you need energy in the same proportion
it is not money that has made energy
grow it is energy that has made money
grow it is with energy that you make
products services this thing that thing
and that’s how your money has been
growing and that started from 1750
because we discovered stored sunlight
500 million years of stored sunlight a
savings account never to happen again an
1860 it was oil which was even more even
more deadly
but what oil can do coal cannot do and
that’s what started this whole crazy
curve so that’s the difference economics
is a mind game you create a concept from
your mind called money and you make the
laws for it yourself and you expect that
the body of the earth and reality should
follow it simply because you’ve made
those laws simply because you say money
has time value it should honor interest
you compound and this is called
energetics this is a subject which I
want to introduce in universities around
the world everything follows energetics
their body follows energetics clouds
follow energetics reversal energetics
forest follow energetics the law of
energetics are defined by God the laws
of economics are defined by man
you can decide who’s gonna win what is
energetics for a star the earth is
finite you’re using the energy only from
the earth anybody who believes that the
Sun is diluted we are running it on
fossil fuels which is 500 million years
of sunlight and all resources this you
won’t learn anywhere in any school but
all resources follow a bell curve which
means that it reaches the peak when half
of it is finished and half the oil is
finished in an oil well it starts
slowing down when half the copper ore is
finished in a copper mine the output
goes down
they don’t teach you anyway they imagine
that you get it at whatever speed you
want but that’s not true
so the second half goes slower so you’re
in trouble when you’ve reached the peak
and this follows the laws of geology
these are not man-made laws these are
God made laws are you going to contest
geology we think that we can with our
creativity which is why we distorted on
the disk concept called money so we have
three phases from when the Industrial
Age started for the first phase the
earth gives you exponentially whether it
be oil or copper or water or anything if
you want more it gives you more so you
could make your money grow in a real way
from here to here you actually made more
products you could actually make more
cars trucks trains planes etc this is
phase one paradise x but second phase it
goes in a different direction so this
part was fine but the second part and
this we managed to do it with these four
laws okay these are the four laws that
allowed us to make money go there but
we’ve got the energy in proportionately
but well now the earth behaves like this
and you’re saying no my money should go
like this there’s a big gap which is a
differential between the real products
you’ve made and you’re imagining your
money has grown here so what did we do
we again relied on our mind we said
let’s make one more concept
so we added another concept to our money
onion it’s called the stock market now
stocks existed but stocks used to be
privately held the moment you make a
stock market yo-yo you started a casino
which means you are betting on stocks if
I take a glass of milk and pass it
around 10 20 40 80 10000 but the glass
still feeds one baby what have you
increased nothing you have created a
symbolic notional casino it’s a gambling
den it is the it’s an institutionalized
gambling den which we call Wall Street
not all Street god knows what Street but
this this is the way our mind works and
we honestly start believing that this is
true and this is actual reality but then
again the curved vote needed to go up
the differentially greased so they said
ok let’s introduce fractional reserve
banking because when you lend money you
get interest when you lend more money
you get more interest so the bank was
allowed to lend more and more and more
and more and more and hold less unless
unless unless unless today’s banks don’t
have the money that you think they have
your money’s gone they were supposed to
only lent 10% and hold 90 but when you
follow this and you said this is our
rule this is our religion this is the
way we have to go then you have to learn
more you have to bring in this concept
but after some time you reach the
ceiling so much gold so much money
you’re supposed to put in money
according to the amount of gold you have
but now you need more money and you
don’t have the gold so what do you do
you add another concept no gold standard
that means you can create as much money
as you want your money is fiat it’s not
backed by anything how wonderful the
mind is people worship the mind when I
question it look at it now can you see
what is this side are getting growth
this side you’re getting risk because
it’s not real
this is imaginary this is real and the
differential is increasing exponentially
then we said hey we need to borrow more
money I only have 50 crores I need to
borrow a thousand crores how about if I
use this principle from physics that I
can lift up 10 kgs by putting only 1 kg
down it’s called leveraging if any of
you guys are done physics
so they applied that rule into finance
and said let the guy put 50 down let him
pick up a thousand crores Wow
he has only put a security of 50 and
he’s picked up a thousand that’s called
leveraging so we added another concept
because you have to keep chasing and
faster and faster curve but the risk is
there what if he doesn’t pay it back so
the bank said you know what we’ll let
him take an option on it so option means
that if he defaults he has to pay a
premium can anybody guess what that
premium is if he’s taken thousand and
put only 50 down how much would he pay
as a premium simple answer this it’s the
only alphabet C St and D 1 s minus this
thing the guys who came up with this got
the Nobel Prize they well they should
look how complicated it is but they used
this formula in their own company called
long-term capital management they made
some money for some time and then they
lost 4.6 billion dollars and the US
government bailed them out because if
they didn’t their whole economy would go
down and they didn’t even take the Nobel
Prize back so that is called the black
and Scholes derivative which is extreme
mathematics you’re not betting you are
doing extreme mathematics to bet which
means I am doing extreme mathematics to
make sure that 10 lakh people lose is
that economics is that a social science
what is it it’s extreme casino behavior
that’s all it is but we love it India
has got now God knows how many thousand
crores of derivatives we are welcoming
them in then we repeal the
glass-steagall Act this is a little
complicated financial banks commercial
banks commercial banks you put your
money financial banks are supposed to do
business in 29 1929 when the when the
when the big crash happened in u.s. the
government says we cannot have these
together because the investment banks
were taking your money and playing with
it
so they separated the two that was
called the glass-steagall Act to protect
your money for 50 years the bankers kept
fighting with the government because
they said we can’t do anything we don’t
have any capital
because now you have to go up higher and
higher by the way this doesn’t stop here
it goes way above this building so the
government says okay guys you can use
the depositors money and that’s when
they repeal the glass-steagall Act and
now they had a lot of capital to play
with and they used these three concepts
leveraging options and black and chose
derivative to create something called
complex financial instruments see
whenever you say complex it has to be
good when you say financial you trusted
immediately instrument even better so
what does it mean
collectively debt obligation you’re
dealing with debt as real things today
debt is sold
Wow if I owe people money I can actually
make money on that how silly of stupid
and you call it collateral debt
obligation that is the growth trap which
we have imposed on ourselves with our
superior I am sorry to say I might
disagree with many other speakers but we
think that it’s all about concepts our
mind our intelligence intelligence is
the lowest form of interaction with our
reality it is a very shallow form
intelligence intuition instinct are much
deeper emotion a much deeper this is the
broad strata we created an idea that
this is how money should go and we’ll do
anything to fulfill it even if it’s not
real and this is all your reality all
resources follow this curve but this I
mean god made some mistakes you know
we’re going to correct it so look at the
gap increasing and each time you come up
to go from here to here you come up with
a new concept to go from here to here
you come up with a new concept to go
from year to year which is now in
hundreds of trillions of dollars of
imaginary vapor symbolic money they’re
unbelievable growth crazy risk the risk
was building in the system we were
waiting for it I don’t want to cricket
but I was waiting to watch this happen
there was an explosion that was the 2008
financial collapse which we were
predicting why very simple you’re
floating up there this is a false
economy and when you reach the top which
is what we reached the top of your
resource which I
she drives things which is called peak
oil this term is going to come into your
education and in your it’s not discussed
anywhere in India at least fifty
trillion dollars evaporated so those
guys said well you know it’s I said them
whenever their it was just creations of
your mind that was the global so two
questions again is perpetual growth
possible yes if you wanted of the
imaginary kind it is it is impossible
now is it desirable this is Mother Earth
I are not normally saying this is a
friend of yours and these are his life
signs you know your heartbeat your
cholesterol level your body temperature
many other things which are supposed to
be flat just imagine that your body
temperature is going crazy like this and
your heartbeat is going crazy like this
what is like this exponential but this
is not a person this is our mother earth
itself all the life signs of the earth
species extinction is supposed to be you
know intense in thousands of years it is
going exponential loss of tropical
rainforest so now I’ve come to the other
side I already explained to you by the
economics collapsed now I’m coming to
explain to you why the ecology is
collapsing loss of tropical rainforest
this year well aware of which is why I
speak about the other thing first
because that not many people are aware
of Fisheries exploited exponential I
love this word exploited you know if you
read any paper you say we must exploit
these markets we must exploit those
resources we must exploit the calm and
China’s markets is it a good word
exploit would you go home and say
darling to your wife darling let’s
exploit the kids tonight
we haven’t exploited aunty Jessie for a
while she will be feeling lonely exploit
means rape rape means exploit so when
you’re saying exploit in your business
meetings in all your financial news you
just replace it with the word rape let’s
leave these resources
let’s rape the middle class
that is more accurate we have a
wonderfully change that’s the beauty
about the mind in the concepts that we
can change anything water usage
exponential co2 concentration exponent
that twenty indicators which are life
indicators ozone depletion number of
cars paper consumption but there’s one
more in here which is the trigger which
is the cause a big thick red line there
can anyone guess what that is kind of in
a way it is the GDP of the world GDP is
your sacred talisman its GDP going down
my god do something yeah
GDP going up everybody’s happy and
clapping you know you have those two
photographs in the papers economically
markets are down those guys are looking
side markets are up there they’re
cheering they know that’s it
GDP of the world when you change the GDP
of the world like this you are going to
get this how on earth will you change
the GDP of the world without taking more
resources without taking more energy
without taking more water without taking
more soil without displacing more people
without acidifying more oceans without
drying more rivers not a single rally
for rivers why should i rally for rivers
you dried it up in the first place you
told me it’s all needed for growth you
told me that this is needed for growth
that is needed for growth the our
diversity should move out for growth we
need to change our policies for growth
well that is growth but then don’t be
surprised that you get all these things
because growth is the disease growth for
the sake of growth is the ideology of a
cancer cell think about it just for
three minutes when it happens in your
body one liver cell becomes 2 4 8 16 32
64 what is that called exponential
growth do you love it no you run 2 in
new jeho spittle but when it happens
outside and we do it we call it progress
it’s funny but it’s really true mr.
edward paul abbey and this you will not
hear in any school or university
is equal to MC squared I care two hoots
about he is equal to MC squared it
really doesn’t matter as a biological
creature you will hear all about marks
and this and that
I love Gandhi but I’m saying if you can
tell about Gandhi surely you can say
this which is exactly what he meant in a
different context this is the thing what
is the connection between the good
things which we think are good now we
are wondering pollution noise this thing
murders rapes depletion are these really
good things or have you just decided
there are good things and who are they
good for this special section of human
beings called civilization not even all
human beings so whether this is good
itself is questionable but when you do
this you are going to get this you are
going to get this and the real cause for
it is your very religion called growth
no wonder the cancer cell ends up eating
the whole organ then moves to the next
organ and calls it an emerging market it
moves from the liver to the heart what
do you think they’ve come to India for
this is the emerging markets is the last
organ to be eaten this is the only place
where there’s clean water cheap land
pliable politicians etc etc growth is a
disease and growth perpetual growth is
impossible so you are chasing the
impossible and perpetuating the disease
madness the truth is fortunately we’ve
reached the end of growth what you’re
seeing around your eight lakh crores
worth of NPA’s non-performing assets
Japan and negative interest rates
America 19 trillion dollars in debt
China’s growth rate falling India’s
growth rate falling it’s not because of
bad administration it’s not because of
mr. Jaitley it’s not because of mr.
Modi’s he tried his best they tried
their best they opened up all the
possibilities for growth to happen
[Music]
more prudish creativity I hate this word
sorry because that was created all those
songs are so hugely creative and we give
them Nobel Prize what do you mean by
create what is the egg of jerk
creativity has become such a bath it’s
such a word that you know when you say
everybody starts bowing in front of it
what does creativity mean for who at
what cost does it work is it holistic
creativity though it’s a narrow thing
GDP went up creativity end of growth is
our new reality thank you for letting me
go all my time I think I have end of
growth is our new reality it is a
reality it’s emerging bearing what is
called energy descent that is why all
the things that you’re seeing happening
read the newspaper again through this
lens and you suddenly see oh my god now
I understand why this is happening and
the final truth is that either we deal
with this reality or reality will deal
with us thank you
[Applause]
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