when Hurricane Lily hid the Louisiana
Shore back in 2002 it didn’t do much
damage but it did leave meteorologist at
the National Hurricane Center very
confused on this elit loop behind me you
can see Lily coming in across Cuba it
became a category four hurricane right
here in the central Gulf of Mexico but
then it weakened down to a category one
hurricane at landfall dr. max Mayfield
is the former director of the National
Hurricane Center he says that over the
years his team got better and better at
predicting a hurricane’s track but what
we don’t do a good job at is catching
the rapidly changing hurricane the ones
that rapidly intensified like lily and
the ones that rapidly diminish like Lily
did before landfall and being able to
predict two hurricanes intensity is
vitally important you really do have to
know the intensity of the hurricane
because the evacuation plans are based
on not just where the hurricane is going
to hit but on how strong it is and
there’s a big big difference between the
category one hurricane that might have
four to five feet of storm surge person
in the category five hurricane that
could have above 20 feet of storm surge
learning what factors ultimately help in
predicting a hurricane strength is the
first step
one factor in helping to predict how
strong a hurricane could be the Saharan
air layer this is the warm dusty air
that blows off of Africa the dust in the
Saharan air layer can actually act to
change the micro physics in the clouds
and actually reduce the hurricane
activity and even a thunderstorm
activity it can also warm the Saharan
air layer and create what we call a
temperature inversion which makes it
very hard for the thunderstorm tops to
bubble up through the atmosphere it also
contains a lot of strong winds that
create vertical wind shear and very dry
air that really knocks the punch takes a
punch out of hurricanes Jason Dunn Yin
is meteorologist with Noah’s hurricane
research division he believes the
Saharan air layer is a major force in
predicting which hurricanes boom and
which ones go bust researchers can now
see both the hurricane and the Saharan
air layer at the same time we can track
the Saharan air layer seeing it here in
orange and yellow and hurricane Aaron
you can see that the system actually
becomes enveloped by the Saharan air
layer and this could be one of the
reasons why this system struggled early
on but later in the time period you can
see Aaron pops out of the Saharan air
layer and rapidly intensifies into a
major hurricane the next step is for
researchers to learn more about the
Saharan air layer with this new
satellite technology that we have we can
actually track this hair and air layer
and send our know and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters out to the Saharan air
layer and sample it using GPS drop wind
signs and they can help us measure the
strong winds and very dry air in the air
layer and that may help us understand
how the Saharan air layer interacts with
hurricanes and ultimately this research
is all about making our lives a lot
safer
Shore back in 2002 it didn’t do much
damage but it did leave meteorologist at
the National Hurricane Center very
confused on this elit loop behind me you
can see Lily coming in across Cuba it
became a category four hurricane right
here in the central Gulf of Mexico but
then it weakened down to a category one
hurricane at landfall dr. max Mayfield
is the former director of the National
Hurricane Center he says that over the
years his team got better and better at
predicting a hurricane’s track but what
we don’t do a good job at is catching
the rapidly changing hurricane the ones
that rapidly intensified like lily and
the ones that rapidly diminish like Lily
did before landfall and being able to
predict two hurricanes intensity is
vitally important you really do have to
know the intensity of the hurricane
because the evacuation plans are based
on not just where the hurricane is going
to hit but on how strong it is and
there’s a big big difference between the
category one hurricane that might have
four to five feet of storm surge person
in the category five hurricane that
could have above 20 feet of storm surge
learning what factors ultimately help in
predicting a hurricane strength is the
first step
one factor in helping to predict how
strong a hurricane could be the Saharan
air layer this is the warm dusty air
that blows off of Africa the dust in the
Saharan air layer can actually act to
change the micro physics in the clouds
and actually reduce the hurricane
activity and even a thunderstorm
activity it can also warm the Saharan
air layer and create what we call a
temperature inversion which makes it
very hard for the thunderstorm tops to
bubble up through the atmosphere it also
contains a lot of strong winds that
create vertical wind shear and very dry
air that really knocks the punch takes a
punch out of hurricanes Jason Dunn Yin
is meteorologist with Noah’s hurricane
research division he believes the
Saharan air layer is a major force in
predicting which hurricanes boom and
which ones go bust researchers can now
see both the hurricane and the Saharan
air layer at the same time we can track
the Saharan air layer seeing it here in
orange and yellow and hurricane Aaron
you can see that the system actually
becomes enveloped by the Saharan air
layer and this could be one of the
reasons why this system struggled early
on but later in the time period you can
see Aaron pops out of the Saharan air
layer and rapidly intensifies into a
major hurricane the next step is for
researchers to learn more about the
Saharan air layer with this new
satellite technology that we have we can
actually track this hair and air layer
and send our know and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters out to the Saharan air
layer and sample it using GPS drop wind
signs and they can help us measure the
strong winds and very dry air in the air
layer and that may help us understand
how the Saharan air layer interacts with
hurricanes and ultimately this research
is all about making our lives a lot
safer
Please follow and like us: