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How to Predict the Future as an Entrepreneur

look many people will tell you never
make any predictions because what if
you’re wrong what if you are wrong about
your prediction people gonna criticize
you you have no idea what you’re talking
about look at you here why would you say
something like that I knew you were
wrong right but here’s the reality of it
there is a reason why people
continuously invested with a guy named
Warren Buffett there’s a reason why
people keep trusting to go back to Ray
Dalio how do they know how to predict
the future why do they keep getting
returns if today Elon Musk gave you a
call and said look I’m thinking about
starting a new company and I would like
you to be one of my first 20 employees
dirty employees 50 employees would you
say no to it what if he said there’s an
equity position for you you may say yes
why would you say yes that is a form of
prediction if you said yes so today I’m
going to talk about 12 things to be
thinking about when coming down to
predict in the future as an entrepreneur
okay so let’s get right into it point
number one is studying each generations
level of frustration in any area of
their lives let me explain to what I
mean by the so for example take what
chip Wilson did chip Wilson’s the
founder of Lululemon when I sat down
with that he was telling me how he came
out with the idea of Lululemon he would
go to yoga classes and in afterwards he
would go sit outside at the nearest
coffee shop next to the girls and a
woman who were leaving the yoga classes
and listened to their frustration and he
realized everybody was frustrated with
their yoga pants’ said it would say you
know what I’d love to go to the mall but
I don’t feel comfortable going to the
mall with these pants so he went and
created pants that made women feel
comfortable to wear it at a mall he
takes his business from zero to 12
billion dollars he’s worth 4 billion
dollars today
take for example boomers okay boomers
are born between 1946 to 1964 so the
oldest boomer turns 50 years old in 1996
what do you think is a level of
frustration that a 50 year old goes
through think about it what does a 50
year old go through what do you start
experiencing in your 40s right we hear
about it all the time right now but back
then it’s kind of private right erectile
dysfunction for example you know when
viagra came out 1996 you know how the
oldest boomer was 50 years old you know
the youngest was only 32 years old
how did
happen what are they frustrated about
you can predict the future if you simply
take each generation and write down what
are they most frustrated about go listen
to them here’s what they’re most trusted
his more divorce then find a solution
for whatever their generation is you can
predict what Trent is gonna take off
next point number two I can walk into a
company or an office or an organization
and I can see based on the energy of how
the team is together and how they solve
problems to get in a boardroom you can
pretty much say these guys are going
places they work it together they flow
get together they’re not afraid there’s
not fear there’s not like somebody
that’s pushing or bullying and all this
other stuff these guys got a good energy
they’ve got a good team something’s
gonna happen you can make a prediction
but I can also walk into a room and see
somebody that’s iron fist no one’s
opinion matters only he speaks no one
can give advice no one can say anything
he never takes anyone’s advice you can
also figure out who is probably gonna
leave that environment in no time
because you can’t lead like that for a
long time energy of the people can also
predict the future of a company or an
industry our point number three is being
able to use data and study and trends to
help you make a certain decision about
whatever your prediction is I like to
look at numbers both internally and
externally what do I mean by internally
I want to know what kind of customers
like my products what kind of customers
don’t like my product you know what kind
of sales people do well at selling my
product what kind of sales people don’t
do well at selling the product I want to
know what kind of executives do what
what kind of employees do well I want to
know what kind of partners do well I
want to study all the data that I can I
want to know seasons months hours
seconds days I want to know all of it
right so think about it as far as sports
goes let’s just say you and I want to
buy sports team together me and you we
don’t know which sports team but we want
to buy sports team together you ready so
you got NFL you got MLB you got NBA you
got NHL and you got soccer team in
America MLS now here’s the key we’re not
buying a sports team for fun like we’re
not buying it because we should go buy
basketball teams I love basketball we’re
buying it purely from an investment
standpoint right NBA NHL NFL MLB and
soccer now if we were to say solve for X
X equals we want to
just return on our money which of those
5e things gonna give the biggest return
on our money if we have a sports team we
buy you know Raiders I was about to be a
minority owner of the Raiders I was
buying 1% of the Raiders and we were
going back and forth this is right when
they signed Jon Gruden the guy came up
saying I thinks were 2.8 billion I give
him enough for a 2.3 billion for the 1%
of the 2.4 billion 2.3 billion they said
no I think this 2.8 billion said I’m not
interested they’re gonna go to Vegas
they’re getting Gruden 10-year contract
all this up I said no why I didn’t see
the trend for me to want to go in and
give that kind of a check to them so I
stepped out of it but if you look at the
5 soccer may be the one that’s gonna
give you the biggest x-factor why here’s
why soccer is the only sport in America
that we are not very good at we’ll get
that baseball we’ll get out of hockey
we’ll get out you know basketball we’ll
get our football but we’re not good at
soccer however what’s the one country
that attracts the most immigrants around
the world America huh and outside of
America what is the number one sport in
the world
it is soccer and immigrants are coming
to America and Sports is about selling
people on that sport how many times were
you not a fan of a sports somebody sold
you on it baby you gotta watch his
baseball game let me tell you what’s
crazy about this baseball game so that’s
what you call a single that’s a double
play look what you just saw that’s a
balk you’ll ever see your ball that’s a
strikeout there’s three balls business
but I like baseball like football that’s
a touchdown that’s this so imagine all
these immigrants are coming and they’re
selling people how amazing soccer is how
amazing soccer is and every four years
the World Cup oh my gosh amazing one of
my investors bought a soccer team just a
few years ago for 40 million bucks it’s
worth over 200 million dollars
5x right but you have to study the data
in the trends in every possible way to
say I think soccer team may be the best
investment we may make you may not buy
because you like the sport you find it
because the best investment you got to
study all the data of all the trends in
every possible way for you to say this
is my prediction of what’s gonna happen
with this industry
okay so point number four is a little
bit different let me explain to what I
mean by this I can look at a company go
to a company and find a product and say
what a boring idea oh my gosh that’s a
boring product are you kidding me
this has been done before that’s all
you’re doing yes well you can predict an
organization’s going places
they have an incredible leader who is
serious believes in the product believes
in the cause believes in the mission
statement it’s not just saying it
because it’s what you’re supposed to
write is 100% convinced now what they’re
doing is gonna make an impact in
people’s lives and they know how to
develop leaders this company’s going
places you can predict that why doesn’t
mean all the time but the risk is lower
if you have an incredible leader that
knows how to develop leaders why because
it’s so hard to find great leaders now
there’s it is so hard to find great
leaders nowadays there are many
investors in a marketplace VC’s private
equity firms that don’t invest into
ideas they invest into a founder they
invest into a CEO they invest into an
entrepreneur because that person
believes in leadership development that
person that believes in personal growth
that person believes in education and
that mindset bleeds into other people
this is why people banked on Jack Welsh
this is why people Bank on the way Andy
Grove built leaders this is why people
Bank on a certain group of leaders that
know how to develop leaders around them
that’s leadership so sometimes you can
simply predict where an organization’s
going based on the one great leader okay
point number five is something you hear
a lot of people talk about with AIS and
robots and all this other stuff I’m
gonna simplify for you you can predict
based on where an industry or somebody’s
gonna take a big hit if any skillsets
start becoming automated you can make a
prediction of what’s gonna happen their
skill sets become automated so if you
and I used to go to the airport and we
would check in and we would get our
ticket and now it’s not you can kind of
make a prediction what’s gonna be
happening within that field if you used
to go to a bank and you would talk to a
teller you no longer do because
everything’s on your phone you can kind
of predict what’s gonna happen in with
you know brick-and-mortar tap of all you
know structures that we would go to it’s
gonna be a different story if you and I
used to go to Barnes & Noble and borders
to buy a book and all of a sudden we’re
buying ebooks and it’s 24 percent of
readers now reading ebooks this was like
10 years ago the data you can kind of
predict the future what’s gonna happen
with borders and Barnes and Noble every
time I go to the Barnes & Noble and
Frisco I asked the guys I said listen
how are you guys doing financially and
the answer is always the same I think
we’re doing okay I think we’re doing
okay the other day the ladies like would
you like to buy the membership of $25
and you’re really not gonna get a
savings on this magazine you buy because
it’s only $4.99 I said honestly how
about I just want to make sure you guys
stay in business because I want to keep
these bookstores and business because I
like bookstores but the reality is how
much longer you think barns are no one’s
gonna stay in business maybe three years
maybe five years maybe ten years would
you really put a million dollars of your
investment to Barnes & Noble today why
because you can predict the future on
what direction that industry is going to
simply because things are being
automated and it’s being replaced by
robot point number six it’s kind of like
point number four but a complete
opposite let me explain to what I mean
by this you know sometimes you look at a
company you look at an organization you
look at a team and say you know what I
think they’re headed in a bad place why
because they just brought in a team
member or they just brought in a CEO or
somebody at the top that only solves
every problem or solution to give
themselves the credit and it’s about
them and you say they’re about to lose
their best talented people and if
they’re about to lose their best
talented people that company may be
going in a direction that is not going
to be favorable to the investors and the
people involved in that company so
sometimes you can make a prediction for
a company that’s going in a bad
direction simply by recruiting the wrong
leader to that company in an executive
position so point number seven is really
directed to the entrepreneur to the CEO
the executive is sometimes you got to
leave your corner office and you got to
kind of go and hear what people are
saying let me explain what I mean by
what people are saying what is going on
forums online forms what are people
really saying about this going on
Twitter really here in conversation a
study on one keyword and just gonna say
WOW a lot of people are talking about
this going and seeing which companies
are pivoting why are they pivoting why
did these three companies pivot as big
as they did what’s the reason for them
okay like I remember in the insurance
industry right this was two weeks before
the election was coming up the insurance
industry everybody thought Hillary
Clinton was going to be the president
and everybody made their Commission’s
tighter like oh why everybody got looser
what happened all of
here but they had banked on one thing
and I want to look at these industry
articles that they had on this couple
different website and these guys said
internally such-and-such person from
this company from Prudential run trends
from this company they believe Hillary
is gonna be President and because of
that they’re doing this they’re doing
that they’re doing this if I didn’t go
on those forums I wouldn’t know why the
industry is getting tighter then I kind
of got a little bit of a clue always
taking place sometimes you got to leave
your executive office your corner office
and just kind of go listen and see
what’s going on really in the real world
what are the consumers what are the
industries pivoted about and are they
right are they wrong and why are they
really doing this getting the motivation
behind it and then that’ll help you have
a little bit more ammunition and info
about the next prediction you can make
point number eight is politically I know
most people don’t like to touch politics
but here’s a reality of it
you have to know which president which
congressman which senator is supporting
which bill what are they promised
they’re going to regulate or deregulate
if they get elected and how does it
impact you for instance you know when
when when certain candidates get up and
they say if I become president we’re
gonna regulate this industry and we’re
gonna regulate that industry and we’re
gonna regulate this industry the
consumer says wow I love that they’re
going to over-regulate everybody what
that really means is they’re gonna help
the bigger companies out because
over-regulation helps the bigger
companies you may say why Pat doesn’t
over-regulation hurt the bigger
companies no no over-regulation helps
the bigger companies it’s the smaller
company that can’t afford it to survive
so over-regulation actually puts that
the smaller companies out of business
the bigger companies weather the storm
because they got a lot of cash they end
up winning versus deregulation when you
hear a president say I want to
deregulate this every day I’m going to
change the regulation toward regulations
five regulations I’m going to deregulate
they’re helping the small business owner
out to be able to compete with the
bigger guys so you have to pay attention
to politics and regulation because
regulation can tell you which big
company is going to win which smaller
company is going to win based on
whatever regulations your politicians
will be making you know point number
nine is kind of tough to explain but I’m
gonna do my best to see if this makes
sense to you
sometimes there are companies that are
so good or individuals or leaders are so
good at serving people and their
customers where the customer experience
is so incredible that the customer wants
to make sure that company stays in
business I don’t know if this makes
sense sometimes you can look at a
company and say these guys gonna be
around for a while as long as they keep
offering customer service an experience
like that people are not gonna let them
go out of business I go to a restaurant
twice a week when I’m in Dallas I go to
this restaurant twice a week its whole
neighborhood services you know why I go
there twice a week because they are so
good at the way they treat me they are
so incredible I want to make sure they
stay in business and every time I’m
there this place is packed it doesn’t
matter what time you go there they’re
always packed they have a system that
works so well you can predict that with
small companies you can predict that
with big companies you can predict that
with individuals you can predict that
with great salespeople you can predict
that with great executives with their
CEOs entrepreneurs CFO’s if somebody
treats their group of people well
they’re typically gonna be winning
long-term you can bank on them winning
long-term okay so the best way to
explain point number 10 is this way I
want you to think about your biggest
insecurity you what is your biggest
insecurity this is the one that your mom
doesn’t know about your dad doesn’t know
about your husband wife girlfriend
boyfriend best friend no one in the
world knows about this insecurity only
you know about this insecurity and I
imagine this imagine if right now in the
next five minutes thousands of people on
Twitter are gonna expose your
insecurities what would happen all of a
sudden it’d be very different wouldn’t
it see that same insecurity for us as
individuals everybody has is the same as
in a business sometimes we keep talking
about how to predict the future about
all make the best investment here go out
there one over here sometimes some
decisions are not about what gives you
the biggest return it’s about what is a
good decision to make sure you stay in
business right so if you don’t ever ask
questions about your biggest insecurity
as a company for example there’s one
thing that was happening with our
company back in 2011 2012 if anybody
ever figured this out there’s one move
in 2000 and 2012 we’re shutting down
and it almost happened I’ll never forget
that meeting it almost happened so many
businesses don’t think about their
insecurities their weaknesses and all of
us on somebody figures it out and next
thing you know they’re shut down you get
asked the question what is the one thing
that can put your business put your
company out of business and keep
figuring out ways to protect that and
eliminate that so it doesn’t eventually
happen you know point number eleven is
something you know about but it’s I’m
gonna explain it maybe in a way that’ll
get a little bit more clear you can call
a traditional way of thinking you can
call it stubborn way of thinking or you
can call it a fix my son makes me what I
mean by this so a company creates a
vision and they say this is where we’re
going and this is what we’re doing
sometimes executives confuse a very
crystal-clear vision with to the point
where you know here’s the only way to
get there and not necessarily sometimes
on a way to dream you get lost and find
a bigger faster way to get there
right so you can necessarily say here’s
the only way to get there you’ve got to
be willing to innovate and adapt and be
open to certain ideas when companies
organizations don’t get open to it
anymore and they’re not willing to be
receptive to it you already know where
that’s going
flatline with one of those leaders
that’s the most creative in that
organization to go leave and do it
better become a competitor and take a
part of their you know Mark it away and
all of a sudden this one goes on
somebody else comes up it just happened
so many years and you can always predict
this with major major companies point
we’re told is by far the toughest one to
do because it has the highest upside and
by far the biggest downside when I
explain this to you here’s what I mean
by point number talk is not about
predicting the future it’s not about
this that at this trend this this makes
me predict that I believe this is what’s
gonna be taking place no no point where
12 is about creating the future very big
difference here’s what I mean by and
here’s why very few people do it because
you’re either a hero or an absolute fool
crazy human being for thinking this was
even possible watch Phil Knight is the
founder of Nike do you want to know why
Phil Knight all of a sudden build an
empire of Nike being what it is today
here’s why back in the days Phil Knight
every year won the NBA had a draft they
would put $25,000 endorsement
into 20 different players so here’s
25,000 dollars here’s 25,000 dollars
here’s $25,000
here’s $25,000 $25,000 in 1984 one of
his advisor said don’t put $25,000 into
20 players put $500,000 into one player
and that one players name was Michael
Jordan do you know one that I’m happened
with Nike Michael Jordan built Nike if
Michael Jordan was a flop
there is no Nike so watch this you got
Phil Knight on this side let me give you
another example here
Lavar ball came out and said our son is
not signing a contract with Nike or
adidas he’s not he’s just not gonna be
doing it because we’re gonna come out
with our brand called big ball a brand
and everybody said he’s out of his mind
he’s crazy how much is a shoe gonna be
worth this much what
yes that’s expensive hey you don’t have
to go buy two Louie Vuitton purse if you
don’t want to but this is what big
baller brand is we dictate our price
everybody called him crazy
now today everyone’s saying log you know
what a crazy guy what is it wasn’t a
great idea really how come it didn’t
work out for him because levar ball
wasn’t necessarily wrong lanza ball
didn’t really end up becoming a player
that everybody thought he was going to
be he was drafted second he should have
probably undrafted number seven or eight
but he was second what if Lanza ball
replaced him with LeBron James what if
LeBron James was Lavar ball son and
LeBron came I became this big of a hit
big baller brand maybe today a five
billion dollar company and all these
other players are chasing the twenty
thirty forty million dollar contract
Lavar ball just got his son a five
billion dollar company and now people
say what a brilliant genius Lavar ball
is that is how close you are to be in
the founder of Nike versus being a fine
big ball of brand that’s what happens
when you predict the future you’re about
to create a new trend and people push
back and you try to push but if you make
it through you’re a rockstar if you
don’t make it through you’re an
absolutely crazy human being oh my gosh
just love our ball guys out of his mind
he’s crazy
no it just didn’t work out his way so
last one is that you predict in the
future is you creating the future so if
this entire topic about predictions
really intrigues you I made a video a
few months back called 10 industries
facing massive disruption click on a
link over here to go watch it and it
from today’s video you want the PDF
about twelve ways to predict the future
click on a link in the description to go
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for watching everybody take care buh bye
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