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How Spotify Raised $2.56 Billion (But Might Not Survive) – a Case Study for Entrepreneurs


Oh everyone welcome back to case studies
with the biz doc this week it’s Spotify
and we’re digging into a more
traditional case study in taking a look
at a company that has been growing and
doing well by certain measures but now
they have to go out in public as a big
grown-up company and be profitable as
the industry that they’re in is changing
rapidly
so think about industry change think
about reacting to your environment and
then thinking about market share and
being in a control position all of that
is all wrapped up into the Spotify case
study as they think about their IPO and
we go take a look inside the company and
at their history and see what we think
about it well first of all we go to the
history of music once upon a time we
bought albums then we just bought songs
45s we bought and then we bought only
individual songs as we downloaded them
on iTunes and the record industry was
terribly upset that we could break the
$17 price we were paying for an album
than a CD and break it into only pay 99
cents for the one song or 99 cents each
for the two or three songs that were on
the CD that we wanted that now we’re
just point to the ones we want on Apple
iTunes and we downloaded them and then
the controversy of free music and
Napster was in there but nonetheless the
album was broken into little parts and
we were buying songs then now today
we’ve gotten into streaming like select
one of those old songs you like and make
a radio station around it on Pandora and
pay $9.99 a month to listen to songs
that are similar to that songs so now
we’re listening to themes based on
favorite songs or we just listened to
John Rizzo on you know Apple we go to
Apple music we say hey show me pop mm
all the things that were popular as the
as the century flipped and that’s how
where it got to and in the middle of
this emerging players came up and one
that was in streaming and songs and
themes and all of this was Spotify whoo
spoiler alert right now is the number
one streaming service in the US with
about 40 45 percent of the streaming
subscribers how did they get there well
let’s look at this
tree at all started in 2008 way off in
in Europe Northern Europe Daniel Hecht
gets together with a friend and creates
Spotify 21 million dollar series a these
are the venture capital runs that I’m
going through right now then a 50
million dollar series be in oh nine
twenty million series see 2010 a hundred
million dollar series D at the point
they announced we have 1 million paying
subscribers six years ago in 2011 then
backing it up with another hundred
million dollar system a series II in
2012 then 2013 a 250 million dollar
series F and then going out the 13th I
say 15 the 2013 and 2015
526 million dollar series G for a grand
total of 1 point 1 billion dollars in
venture capital invested by all these
investors who have got no return yet
they’re letting it ride it’s like the
money’s in the blackjack table and
they’re hoping the dice come up 7 they
are in for the long haul looking for an
acquisition or looking for an IPO
looking for an exit but more importantly
looking for Spotify to show itself to be
a grown up company generating profits so
now we go take a look along the way
there weren’t there was bumps in the
roads
it was slow getting started if you look
back here this is only about 3 4 years
after the app started and then unlimited
data plans and everything enabled you to
take get more out of music streaming
services then we all remember 2014 this
is Taylor Swift and she looks upset that
may not look like Taylor Swift but it
pulls all of her stuff off Spotify as
the recording artists were saying damn
it I’ve created all this music and now
it’s out on streaming services
I wish the performing rights
organizations they’re supposed to be
protecting my copyright I risk the
record labels and other people be
protecting me and I’m not putting my
music out there for free if I can’t sell
a CD and certainly want to be able to
sell songs but if I can’t sell I don’t
want this stuff just out there so I
could get pennies on the dollars on a
streaming so in the
background the recording industry was
fighting amongst itself and trying to
figure out how they were going to hold
the streaming services to some sort of
royalty rates meanwhile streaming
services were popping up in the
recording industry wanted consumers like
you and me to be listening to music but
they also wanted to be making a buck off
of it so along we go here the last money
raised in 15 well that was 20 million
paid subscribers then in 16 part of 16
they said we’ve crossed 30 million paid
subscribers then halfway through 16
we’ve crossed 40 million paid
subscribers and finally here in 2017 50
million subscribers and we are 40% of
the streaming subscribers in the u.s. we
are number one but we need more money
and so they go out and the venture guys
are done they’re saying you’re gonna
have to raise money differently this
time well they go out and get 1.5
billion in debt and a note well the debt
and the note came with some terms and
the first was hey I’m gonna put this in
but you have to go public within a year
in other words you have to go on IPO
on the stock market because when the
company goes on the stock market the
first transaction when you and me and
millions of other investors can buy
stock that is we buy the shares that are
owned by the venture capitalists or the
note holder that’s how they get their
return the first day on the stock market
the initial the first public offering
their money gets converted from our
money and then we trade amongst each
other and every day we look up there we
hope that the stock price is going out
and going higher well what they said was
hey we get a 20% discount when the
shares go public in other words if the
share was going out there safe for $10
then they get to buy it for eight
dollars in exchange for giving you know
one and a half billion dollars to them
so Spotify finds itself with a gun to
its head you either go public by a
certain date or this just gets worse
that was the only choice they had now
then what’s going on in music streaming
wouldn’t you think that if you’re number
one and you’re forty percent of the
music streaming that you would be making
a profit and so hang on hang on hang on
so to raise 1.5 billion in money when
the venture guy said well we’re done
here they had to give up a discount on
stock and they had to an ever-increasing
interest rate with the gun to their head
yep let me tell you that’s expensive
money and there is only one word for
that and that is damn what are you
thinking unless you had no choice the
number one thing for the music streaming
people is a licensing cost how much do
you have to pay the record labels and
the artist that is everything yes
there’s hosting costs and there’s
transport costs and some marketing costs
and other things in there but the big
big lion in the room with no cage around
it is the licensing cost and if you have
to operate at such a small margin you’re
not gonna be able to operate a company
and pay them what they want for
licensing well recently Universal Music
Group the biggest and Merlin a group of
independence did new deals with Spotify
Spotify hopes those deals are going to
lead to getting deals with the rest of
the music industry and that as the 40%
player it can use that weight and that
status to get deals with people that the
record labels like that the recording
industry likes that the artists likes
likes I should say it that the artist
likes the record the record labels light
and therefore the recording industry as
a whole likes that has to come together
so they have a viable business because
right now 2014 the revenue was one point
one four billion they didn’t say what
their loss was but it was a loss and
many people speculate this was over a
hundred million dollar loss in 2015 it
was 2.1 billion dollars in revenue and a
two hundred and forty four million
dollar loss and in 2016 they had
announced that it was 3.1 in revenue and
a five hundred and sixty eight million
dollar loss and a big chunk of this was
interest they had to pay on the bad
note so the estimate is that they really
lost about 310 well that means your loss
is growing even as your sales are going
and you know what wait a minute let me
go into the other room and show you
what’s going on in the recording
industry to see that Spotify should
actually be in a strong position let’s
go take a look okay okay okay I’m back
first before we go any further with
Spotify we got to talk about what’s
happening in streaming it’s really big
and this will help you understand the
case study and also understand that the
sea change that’s going on in music is
everything it’s forever being changed
let’s step in right now in the streaming
world you’ve got Spotify with about 40%
of the streaming subscribers and then
you got Apple music not iTunes download
but the Apple music and about 20% and
then uh-oh Amazon is there anything that
they don’t have their fingers in answer
no Amazon music which is Amazon Prime
music Amazon music unlimited about 12%
and then everybody else at 28% Sadko
Deezer Google Play Pandora
anybody that selling remember Pandora
premium not Pandora free and Sirius
satellite radio which is a subscription
service or in here and the subscribers
there 2015 was about ten point eight
million in here 2016 which is this mix
it was twenty two point six in June just
now June 2017 it’s thirty this is
growing like wildfire how big well let’s
go take a look in 2016 let’s just look
at the the dollars in the music industry
in the United States and this all makes
sense
seven point six billion dollars spent by
you and me one way or in another on
music three point nine billion was
streaming or about fifty one percent
three point seven billion was sold well
wait a minute that was the first time in
history that streaming revenue was
bigger than sales let’s take a look at
that one point four billion was ads like
we listened to something and get ads
that’s the free Pandora
and other things like it 2.5 was
subscription
in other words 33% of the music industry
income last year with streaming services
in other words you paid for a stream and
you listen to it
thumbs-up thumbs-down you heard more of
what you like you were just paying a
flat fee per month you make your song
mixes do whatever you want on Pandora
premium or unspotted I or on Apple music
and that was that was up by the way
really up physical sales albums CDs and
stuff believe it or not that’s 1.8 and
vinyl is making a big comeback but
needless to say it’s it’s a it’s a
quarter of the music industry still and
just kind of holding flat meanwhile
downloads and most of this is iTunes was
down 1.9 billion it was 2.3 billion the
year before so sold music is dropping
through the floor with with albums whole
and CDs holding steady
but with downloads paying for downloads
like on iTunes so it’s just the biggest
boom falling through the floor with
streaming coming up now then interesting
thing June 30th this year so just a
little bit ago June 30th and guess what
the mid-year numbers came out streaming
is now 62 percent of the music revenue
in the United States which means the war
is over
streaming is just taking over everything
and digital downloads continue to crash
I don’t know if it’s true for you but
this is true for me
I haven’t downloaded songs on Apple’s in
months and back then it was like one or
two songs as a matter of fact I was I
think the last song that I downloaded on
Apple iTunes where I actually paid for a
download 249 whatever it was was Harry
Nilsson’s
you’re breaking my heart it’s a really
old song goes back to the 70s but Harry
Nielsen you’re breaking my heart you
should go listen to it because that song
was all about my relationship with
Sirius satellite radio which I talked
about in a previous case study that when
they raised the price to $400 to have
both my cars have Sirius satellite radio
I said goodbye to my Sirius satellite
subscription and that’s
song is how I feel about it and so now
we’re gonna take a look at this through
the lens of Spotify to say with all of
this happening and things going on in
the music industry and Spotify being 40%
yet we’re gonna take a look at the
losses and how do you take a company
public that has those kind of losses so
let me go back go back to the other room
to the other board and get back to
Spotify okay I’m back well hopefully
that helped you see that the recording
industry in the United States music in
United States is actually in great shape
as you saw people are streaming they’re
still actually buying some physical CDs
and a lot of albums albums are making a
comeback because of the sound is so pure
and so nice a lot of people want those
me I just want to point and shoot and
get the songs I want but you also saw
that streaming is growing and killing
digital download so when it comes to
phones we don’t want bigger phones to
get those digital downloads what we want
is a streaming service at a reasonable
price to go point and shoot and select
the themes and songs create our own
radio stations and create our own mixes
that algorithms like Pandora
automatically show for us but as you can
see Spotify is number one and there’s a
lot of people that are out there dying
and what’s interesting if you think back
what I just showed you Amazon Apple
Spotify and then also a little bit of
Google Play in there let’s take a look
Amazon big stack of money Apple big
stack of money bought beats basically
it’s discontinued beats as a music
service basically and they’re offering
Apple music right now which I subscribe
to which is pretty good then Google Play
so three of those players are big enough
to say at some point in time as all
those other little ones sort of die away
which is gonna happen I think the big
one I would not be surprised to see a
player like Apple as a matter fact I
think this would be a perfect purchase
for Apple Apple makes money on the App
Store Apple has an ecosystem Apple music
is now pretty much you know given way to
the thematic $10 a month where I can get
my radio stations and things like that
on Apple so they could buy this and just
add all these subscribers into
music as all of the other contestants go
away the other one I think is looming in
the distance is Amazon Amazon music
already in a big position so basically
the case study on Spotify is I think it
is successfully got itself into position
in the midst of a changing marketplace
and a changing ecosystem and it’s fought
and got itself to number one but it’s
got to control its internal cost and get
those licensing deals with the other
ones and show that it can be profitable
so it can have an IPO that’s successful
otherwise this discount rate and what
they’re paying their note is just gonna
keep going higher in other words even if
Spotify as big as they are and as much
money as they still have in the bank and
they still have hundreds of millions of
dollars in the bank that they’re
bleeding through there is a waterfall
coming for Spotify that they’re
inevitably going to go over and I could
see Amazon and Apple just sitting there
patiently waiting as the ecosystem sort
of sorts itself out and people like
Sirius Pandora Spotify or left and then
they can make decisions on which one
they buy and what’s old becomes new
again
suddenly the record industry that was
controlled by a few kind of goes nuts
starting with Napster and all these
different services and slacker and
deezer and all the ones that are in
there is comes back to a few players
along with radio I Heart Radio which
used to be Clear Channel Communications
there you have it I hope they make it I
hope they’re able to get licenses with
everybody else and get that together and
control these losses so that they are a
going concern capable of an IPO that
erases and pays off these bad deals on
the last money that they got in the bank
so they could survive because I think we
all need an independent source out there
to balance you know Amazon music Apple
music Google Play and the big Giants I
think we need choice saneras consumers
even know a lot of these small ones are
all going to fall away that’s it for
Spotify now we need pillow X last week
we introduced the new pillow pillow X
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entrepreneurial content and until next
time
Tom Ellsworth and I hope I let you
better than I found you [Music]
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