during the most extraordinary time ever
in human history and during our lifetime
during our lifetime that we’re about to
see the transformation of the human race
truly something that blows my mind every
time I think about it and the
conversation I keep having with my
colleagues my friends my investors my
community in Silicon Valley goes
something like this people have no idea
how fast the world is changing and I
want to give you a sense of that because
it fills me with awe and with
extraordinary sense of responsibility
for how we guide it what we do with him
this is the computational power of our
planet and over the last 40 plus years
from the 1980s to 2000 we were in a
period of what I call deceptive growth
where the growth was slow it was
beginning to change us but we didn’t try
to feel it yet and then we enter a
period of disruptive growth where it’s
exploding on to the world and you saw
part of the implications from what Jeff
Dean was saying and the implications of
that explosive disruptive growth is that
we’re plummeting the cost to bandwidth
millions of times cheaper computational
costs are dropping through the floor the
cost of memory is dropping through the
floor and global connectivity is
exploding on this planet now there are
two applications I want to talk about
during my presentation that are
critically important the first is that
of abundance and I had a chance to write
a book called abundance the future is
better than you think and here are the
facts the per capita income for every
nation on this planet has increased 300%
our lifespan over the last hundred years
has increased two and a half times the
cause
– food has dropped 13 fold Energy’s
dropped 30 fold and then on top of that
what we’re seeing is the following
literacy on this planet over the last
hundred years going 12% to 88 percent
across the globe the cost of
transportation going a hundred times
cheaper the cost of communications going
a thousand times cheaper and the cost of
knowledge and information giving Google
billions of times cheaper for every
single person for a child in Mumbai
having access to knowledge information
as good as the president knighted States
had 20 or 30 years ago a child the
poorest child Mumbai in a smartphone
having access to the same knowledge
information that Larry Page has on
Google so besides creating this
abundance and D monetizing the cost of
living what we’re also seeing is we’re
about to see the transformation of the
human race when I say that we’re going
to change over the next few decades how
we raise our children how we govern
ourselves how we communicate
person-to-person how we employ ourselves
commerce entertainment and we’re about
to become a multi planetary species and
here’s the most amazing time the thing
it’s happening during our lifetime it’s
happening during your lifetime it’s
happening in the next thirty years so
don’t blink so what’s driving all this
this is gordon moore one of the
cofounders of intel pianist plot and his
partner started in 1958 and by 1965
gordon moore had noticed something on
the chips that they were producing at
intel the integrated circuits and he
noticed that the number of transistors
per piece of silicon per dollar was
roughly doubling every 12 to 18 months
and in 1965 he publishes his paper and
he goes you know this is likely to
continue and it’s been known as Moore’s
law and it’s continued for 50 years and
I want to show you what that looks like
that’s the first integrated circuit 1958
here we see two transistors about a
half inch feature-length on each let’s
fast forward to the first commercial
product in 1971 the Intel 4004 2300
transistors about a dollar each now
let’s fast forward 45 years to intel’s
i7 processor here we see a processor
that it’s 330 billion times faster when
you want to understand why the world is
getting faster why we’re able to do the
things that we do it’s right here it’s
that transformation 330 billion times
faster over the course of 45 years let
me give you another visualization of
what this looks like right in 1956 this
was a hard drive 5 megabytes $120,000
and if you happen to have your cargo
airplane you could move it from office
to office now we probably notice when
this happened 2005 here’s 128 megabytes
for 99 bucks pretty extraordinary
transformation but did we notice this
when over the course of nine years it
went 120 gigabytes right on schedule
on Moore’s Law for 99 bucks a thousand
times better I’m an investor in an
advisor in a nanotechnology company
that’s focused on doing this a billion
times better again right we’re talking
about all Google’s data centers in a
sugar cube and if you look at this this
is from my partner Ray Kurzweil he’s a
co-founder with myself at singularity
University this is the computational
growth plotted on the log scale over the
last 110 years what we see here on this
curve and five paradigms the last of
which is Moore’s Law what ray calls this
is the law of accelerating returns that
we’re using faster computers to build
faster computers to build faster
computers and it’s not slowing down
we don’t see World War 1 or Wald war 2
we don’t see boom times or recessions
right and so if it’s likely to continue
what you get is something pretty
interesting see in 2023 7 years from now
the
Brij computer we go and buy from Best
Buy if they’re still around is now
calculating at 10 to the 16 cycles per
second which a neurophysiologist will
tell you that’s the rate which your
brain does calculations so what happens
you can buy a human brain for a thousand
bucks well it doesn’t slow down right 25
years later now a thousand bucks buys
the computational power of the entire
human race now your kids homework gets
really easy and what the insight I want
to share with you is that these faster
cheaper computers that are going on and
on and on are sort of the foundational
you know growth medium upon which all
these other technologies are growing so
as computers are getting thousands and
billions and times faster so are these
other technologies and these
technologies computer sensors networks
AI robotics 3d printing ARV our
synthetic biology are literally
recombining and giving us unexpected
convergent consequences you can be an
expert in one area but actually
understanding where these come together
and what they do the new business models
are transforming our planet right here
right now so the first of these networks
right this is the world’s population
growth over the last 15 years we’ve just
crossed the seven billion mark but if
you look at Internet penetration in 2010
we had 1.8 billion people connected on
planet Earth to the Internet today it’s
about 2.9 by 2022 225 let’s call it you
know eight years from now we’re at a low
estimate going to have 5 billion people
connected which means we’re adding 3
billion new minds onto the global
economy they’ve never been accounted for
before but that’s the low estimate why
because this guy at Facebook with drones
and satellites wants to connect every
single person on the planet
my friends at Google with Google loons
and satellites and drones when it
connect every single person on the
planet Paul Jacobs Richard Branson Greg
wheeler have just raised a billion
to deploy one web a 648 satellite
constellation in the next six years to
connect every single person on the
planet and last week Elon was announcing
with SpaceX a four thousand satellite
constellation to connect every single
person on the planet so I want you to
imagine in the next six to eight years
not five billion but eight billion
connected people not coming online like
you and I did right on a o L and 9600
baud right coming online with a megabit
connection or better with access to the
world’s information we are about to see
a massive explosion innovation like we
have not seen yet innovation coming from
parts of the world that we would have
never thought of five billion new
thinkers five billion new innovators
five billion you creators problem
solvers entrepreneurs coming online
within this next decade and it’s not
just people it’s things right last year
we had 15 billion connected devices by
2020 my friends at Cisco talked about
the Internet of Things the low estimate
is 50 billion connected devices and by
the way each one of these devices have a
dozen sensors on them we’re talking
about heading towards a world of a
trillion sensors where everything is
being seen and measured and known fast
forward 10 years later now we’ve got 500
billion connected devices 100 trillion
sensors sensors everywhere in micro
drones on the fabrics inside your body
right letting us know anything we want
anytime we want anywhere we want and oh
those sensors on your body and in your
body we’re about to see an explosion in
how we think and we connect we
communicate this is Google’s contact
lens that’s picking up glucose in your
tears which correlates to glucose in
your blood but that’s the first step of
sort of connecting to your neural system
there are amazing companies right now
like Colonel a friend of mine Brian
Johnson one of our benefactors at the
XPrize Foundation when my investors has
launched 100 million dollars to be able
to connect your brain to the cloud right
my friend Ray Kurzweil your brain is a
collection of a hundred billion neurons
with a hundred trillion synaptic
connections that make you you and me me
now the last time we had an upgrade of
the human brain was two million years
ago when we said our large prefrontal
cortex or sort of exploded and gave us
language in art and the ability to think
and and thinkin similes in all of these
different areas but as we start to
connect the brain to the cloud we’re
about to see for the first time ever an
explosion in human intelligence
Brian talks about it’s not AI versus
humans
it’s a chai it’s the most important
asset we can ever have it’s the increase
of human intelligence I love this copy
of Time magazine plugging in the brain
into the grout but that’s that 2045 is
not a right estimate from the companies
I’m seeing Ray’s estimate is by the
early to mid 2030s so imagine when when
you need additional memory capacity or a
thousand times more intelligence you can
sort of like split up like your phone
does on the cloud today but by the way
the early 2030s oh my god that’s 20
years from now so what’s the world going
to be looking like we heard about AI
whatever version you want from how to
Siri to Google now to IBM Watson
I prefer Jarvis I think we’re all going
to have a version of Jarvis will be
talking it’ll be listening you’ll give
permission to your Jarvis your personal
software shell to read your emails watch
what you’re eating listen to your blood
chemistry is sorting your conversations
because it’s giving you all the
information you need just in time and
these AIS are also helping us solve the
world’s grandest challenges on the
Google stage last year I was with a head
of the Watson team from IBM on an X
Prize than a mere one of the
co-organizers here runs and we’re
challenging teams to work
a is to solve the world’s biggest
problems we get frightened about Grand
Challenges because we see them from far
away but guess what the tools and
technologies we have to solve these
grand challenges is exploding onto the
scene that gives me the greatest hope
for the future
AI is our most important tool ever to
solve our Grand Challenges and besides
all of these technologies we’re now
beginning to understand the software
code of the human species right look at
this curve that white line is Moore’s
law it’s the increasing power the
reducing costs of computation that green
line is how fast we’ve gone to
sequencing DNA a hundred million dollars
to sequence the human genome in 20 and
2000 by craig Venter nine months of time
today it’s down to a thousand bucks in
two hours but it’s not just reading DNA
we can now write DNA we can actually
create novel life forms you can design a
life form your computer printout a
string of DNA put it into a blank cell
have it boot up for life and it’s not
just writing DNA CRISPR casts nine and
unless you buried your head in the sand
you probably have heard about CRISPR
cast nine right the ability to edit our
own genomes to have a disease and say
let’s edit that away
think about word for your genome click
paste’ repair one of the implications
that i’m focused on is extending the
healthy human lifespan through genomics
and stem cell science my two companies
human longevity and cellularity our
mission is to add 30 to 40 healthy years
onto your life to give you the
aesthetics the cognition and the
mobility at 60 at 100 that you had at 60
and if you get that we’re heading
towards a world of an indefinite
lifespan these are crazy ideas but
they’re coming because the tools we have
to enable them are accelerating faster
than we could possibly know the second
implication I want to close with is the
transformation of human species we are
heading to what I call the
formation of a meta intelligence I
haven’t talked about this publicly but I
want to share it and I look at a
historical analog to see where we’re
going based on where we have been as
life on this planet 3.5 billion years
ago the first life-form was a prokaryote
it was a single bag of cytoplasm with a
string of DNA the simplest life we knew
and over the course of a billion years
that prokaryotic life-form developed
into a complex life form called a
eukaryote and what it did was
incorporated into it technology the
mitochondria and the plasmic reticulum
Golgi apparatus that allowed it to
process information energy more
efficiently and so that transformation
from a simple life-form to a
technology-enabled life-form is what I
believe we are doing right now as we as
humans are beginning to incorporate
technology into our brains into our
bodies we’re undergoing that same
transformation in the first step the
second step that life took was going
from eukaryotic life to multicellular
life collaboration and we are massively
collaborating as we go from small tribes
not connected to tribes connected by the
internet and soon connected by the cloud
where when I think I can understand in
in the purest form of empathy what you
see what you hear what you feel the
third is the emergence of technology of
intelligence this is a moria at the
early stages of a human embryo sixteen
cells that grows into what we are today
a collection of 10 trillion human cells
in my body or your body and emergence of
intelligence and what we’re about to do
is to connect not one but eight billion
minds connecting the fashion like never
before that I call a meta intelligence
and I think as we connect and become a
new species a new creation of eight
billion connected Minds we’re going to
look out into the solar system
to the universe and see many others
remind it’ll close on the notion that
400 million years ago
lungfish crawled out of the oceans onto
land hasn’t happened since today we as a
species are crawling out of the
birthplace of humanity this fragile
planet to the moon to Mars to the
asteroids a million years from now
whatever we become we’re going to look
back at these next few decades as the
moment in time that we become an
interplanetary species I believe we have
during our lifetime the next 30 years
the mission to inspire and to guide the
transformation of the human species on
and off the earth non or pleasure thank
you [Applause]